Why Key could face an impossible task at McLaren

Incoming McLaren technical director James Key is someone I rate very highly. I worked with him at Jordan in his early years in Formula 1 and as he worked his way through various areas in the company he was always 100% committed to whatever he was asked to do.

He has always been highly motivated and driven to get the best out of any situation, and has held the role of technical director at Force India (in various forms), Sauber and Toro Rosso, so has done well in the role in some very different teams.

But this new challenge, at McLaren, could just be that step too far.

Taking on the role of technical director at McLaren at a time when it's trying to rebuild is no easy task. Over the past five seasons - and probably before that - it has been like an oil tanker drifting out at sea. The captain thinks he's steering a true course, but unknown to him the rudder is not actually working.

First of all, it was put down to 'management disputes'. The battle at the top went on and, in the end, Ron Dennis - the man who (like him or not) had made McLaren into what it was - was ousted.

Martin Whitmarsh, another McLaren long-termer, was also put out to graze. Jost Capito, who'd been brought in by Dennis, then quickly went. Next to fall was technical director Tim Goss shortly after the start of the season and then, last month, racing director Eric Boullier.

All of these management changes mean the workforce - the men and women who actually make it happen on a day-to-day basis - seemed to lose their direction and drive for success. No matter how hard you work, if the strategy and leadership isn't right then you won't get anywhere.

For many years McLaren had been a loyal Mercedes-engine user. But once Mercedes bought up the Brawn team and turned it into a full works operation in 2010 - and did so very successfully - McLaren decided to do a works deal with Honda.

The rationale made sense, because there was a need to have a works engine deal to be able to take on and beat Mercedes and the rest.

We all know that, for many reasons, the Honda relationship didn't work out. But while hiding behind the performance problems of the power unit package from 2015-17, the performance of the chassis was not as good as the team thought.

This new challenge, taking on McLaren, could just be that step too far for Key

When the deal to use Renault engines this year was announced, Zak Brown said Red Bull was McLaren's benchmark. Well, it's been a real eye-opener for McLaren. Not only did it start the season less competitive than hoped, it quickly became clear that the team was going backwards rather than forwards.

So, attention turned to the technical department. As well as Goss, head of chassis design Matt Morris has now been removed from his role. Yes, someone has to carry the can for McLaren's problems, but sometimes it's better to strengthen the structure rather than change it.

Change, even when it's for the better, takes a long time to settle down and you risk introducing different problems.

McLaren also seems to have upset Red Bull by confirming that Key is coming in as technical director and destabilised the ongoing talks on when he can start in his new role and what it will cost.

This just shows that McLaren considers itself to be bigger than it really is.

Key had a long-term contract with Toro Rosso, one that was set to keep him at the team for another few seasons, and it's inevitable the team will want to get something out of losing him. You don't let your best personnel walk away for nothing.

Losing Key is a big blow for Toro Rosso, but it's actually a bigger blow for Red Bull. Adrian Newey is not going to do what he's doing forever, and I'm sure Key would have been top of the pile to take over at the mothership. He knows how Red Bull works, so the transition would have been quick and easy for both the team and Key.

Then again, if Key was regarded as so essential for the future, perhaps Red Bull would either have promoted him already to a new role, or fought even harder to keep him...

Instead, Key has gone to a role at McLaren that's going to be anything but easy. He's excelled at what he's done with a small team, where you're able to oversee everything that's going on.

Small also means nimble, so you can switch direction easily. Moving to McLaren, which is around twice the size, will require a major change in how you go about day-to-day business.

As a technical director, I always liked working with small teams where I could get my hands dirty, be involved in everything and on the odd occasion you'd get everything right and give the big boys a hiding!

In a small team, your ultimate objective is to do as well as you can over a given weekend. With a big team, it's about winning or, at least, being in podium contention every weekend. That's a very different dynamic.

This has all changed as the teams have grown in terms of people and resources. Now, a technical director's job is technical management and sitting behind a desk making sure everyone is heading in at least the same direction.

Hopefully, it's the correct direction. There are probably more people working in the design, research and development department at McLaren than Toro Rosso has in its entire team.

McLaren does do a lot right, and if you can combine that with what Key does right then you will have a stronger team

The turnaround, if it can be done, will take time. When you move to a new team, it takes a while to pick up how things work. You can't just dive in there and say 'This is how it's going to be' because that would destroy any motivation that was left.

McLaren does do a lot right, and if you can combine that with what Key does right, then you'll have a stronger team. But McLaren can't stand back and wait for the day he walks through the door, which could easily be a year away depending on how negotiations go with Toro Rosso. So, in the interim, McLaren needs to push on as effectively as possible with what it has.

I'm sure he'll not be able to start there this year, so that rules out any significant influence for 2019. He would be able to contribute to the '20 car, but with major regulation changes coming for '21, I can see him focusing on that project. That's McLaren's big opportunity.

If that's so, his influence won't really be seen for another couple of seasons. I'm not sure that's what Fernando Alonso wants to hear when it comes to talks about him staying for next year. But such are the lead times in F1.

To see if Key is going to be up to it, we need to compare some figures from the past few years. Toro Rosso has had a fraught time with engine suppliers. In 2014 and '15 it was Renault, then for '16 year-old Ferrari units, '17 was back to Renault and for '18 it took over from McLaren using the Honda PU.

For a small team, four engine changes in four years means that a lot of your engineering effort is required simply to produce a car, and something has to suffer. Normally, it's performance research and development - which means that although you actually produce a car to go racing with, it's never as quick as it potentially could be.

Let's look at things year by year. This shows McLaren and Toro Rosso's percentage performance relative to the fastest team from 2014. Bearing in mind the quickest team on average in each of those seasons is close to 100.000%, it shows how strong you have to be to fight for championships.

2014 - McLaren-Mercedes vs Toro Rosso-Renault

This is a good reference to see how good McLaren performed with the best engine package in the pitlane. Mercedes dominated the season, while Toro Rosso struggled with Renault.

Toro Rosso vs McLaren Performance Level (2014)

Comparing the two teams to Mercedes' supertime

2015 - McLaren-Honda vs Toro Rosso-Renault

Toro Rosso had a strong season, while McLaren was all at sea with Honda. This was Toro Rosso's strongest car relative to the rest in terms of aerodynamic performance, although reliability was a problem.

Toro Rosso vs McLaren Performance Level (2015)

Comparing the two teams to Mercedes' supertime

2016 - McLaren-Honda vs Toro Rosso-Ferrari (year-old engine)

Renault was struggling to improve its engine, so Toro Rosso's only alternative was the year-old Ferrari. This was never going to be a good move and, as the season progressed, this hurt the performance while McLaren and Honda started to make some progress.

Toro Rosso vs McLaren Performance Level (2016)

Comparing the two teams to Mercedes' supertime

2017 - McLaren-Honda vs Toro Rosso-Renault

A change of drivers late in the season and a flurry of grid penalties hurt Toro Rosso, but there were signs it was dropping away in the development race even before that happened.

Toro Rosso vs McLaren Performance Level (2017)

Comparing the two teams to Mercedes' supertime

2018 - McLaren-Renault vs Toro Rosso-Honda

It's very difficult to understand where the Honda power-unit performance really stands. But as Red Bull is taking the engine, that must mean it's at least not too far away from the Renault. So, we can consider this season a fair comparison of where McLaren stands compared to Toro Rosso.

Toro Rosso vs McLaren Performance Level (2018)

Comparing the two teams to Mercedes' supertime

My only doubt about Key, even though I like him and rate him highly, is that Toro Rosso hasn't progressed since the standout season in 2015.

That car was, if I remember correctly, second quickest through Abbey at Silverstone - behind only Mercedes - and rival teams were talking up how good it was. But, again, by the nature of the team, it's always had fast but younger and less experienced drivers, so development direction is difficult to set.

Operations trackside let the team down in 2015, but that improved for '16 when the car was less impressive, relatively speaking - albeit with the limitation of the old Ferrari engine.

Under the new rules (2017 to now), Toro Rosso seems to have lost its way, but changing power units every season is no easy task for a small team.

Carlos Sainz Jr said Toro Rosso could either get the car to work well at high-speed at the expense of low-speed or vice versa, never a decent level across the range of cornering challenges.

Last winter, Toro Rosso's head of aero departed, but this year has been a similar story. And the big update brought to Austria doesn't seem to have widened that performance window, only confused the team further.

For Key, the task at McLaren will be the biggest he has ever faced. But at 46, it could be just what he needs.

He has the knowledge, the ability and the drive. But the big questions are whether he will be able to adapt to the requirements of a big team; and, even more importantly, will he have the time needed to put everything in place and with the right support?

For Key, the task at McLaren will be the biggest he has ever faced, but it could be just what he needs

F1 teams are so big nowadays that it's questionable if one person, no matter how capable, can turn things around.

It needs everything to be right for Key to be successful, which means it's going to be probably the most difficult challenge of his career - and could prove to be impossible no matter what he does.