How Mercedes has given Ferrari new reason to fear

On Thursday, Lewis Hamilton suggested the major aerodynamic upgrade package Mercedes has brought to the Austrian Grand Prix would "help us in our battle to frighten the other guys".

While that was a light-hearted comment, it carried a real hint of threat. Ferrari and Red Bull can't have avoided being concerned when they saw the scope of the Mercedes development step, which some have characterised as effectively a b-spec even though the team does not describe it that way.

So, when Hamilton set the Red Bull Ring pace on Friday using a car featuring revised bargeboards, floor, rear wing and sidepods - among other changes - perhaps that concern did turn to fear.

Not only was Hamilton fastest in Friday practice, but the car also looked well-poised on track and probably had a bigger advantage than the lap times suggest.

Watching at Turn 1 during the first session, you wouldn't have guessed there was anything new and unfamiliar on the car. Both Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas, but Hamilton in particular, were able to brake hard and late, commit on turn-in and even with a relatively early entry point had the grip to get the power on at the exit.

While others picked up understeer, or lost the rear, the Mercedes seemed planted. On a green track, with an unfamiliar aerodynamic configuration, this was impressive.

By contrast, the Ferraris had to square off the corner a little more with a later turn-in - with Kimi Raikkonen and, in particular, Sebastian Vettel having some wild rides over the sausage kerb at the exit of the corner as they ran out of road.

The usual caveats apply, for this is only Friday practice, and Vettel was only 0.236 seconds behind. Even on the shortest track of the season in terms of lap time, that's well within the spread of the gain he generally makes between Friday and the business end of qualifying.

Vettel was upbeat about the performance of the Ferrari, and traditionally this season the car has improved significantly from Friday to Saturday. To do that, Ferrari needs to counteract the understeer that manifested itself in several corners.

"I think Mercedes had the upper hand today. They looked very quick in all conditions" Sebastian Vettel

Vettel himself knows Mercedes is in a good position, especially as he reckoned this was one of his better Fridays.

"It's quite close, I think Mercedes had the upper hand today," said Vettel. "They looked very quick in all conditions, but I think it was a tricky Friday [with the] tyres. We did a lot of laps, which was good, and we should be well prepared for tomorrow and also for Sunday."

But given this was such a significant new package for Mercedes, it's also reasonable to expect there's more to come from the Brackley team overnight.

Even with a car that looked so good on track in first practice, and expected to be stronger than the previous version in the longer corners, engineers will build more understanding on how to get the best out of it before Saturday.

And crucially, Hamilton set his best time on softs, with Vettel's on the ultrasofts - according to Pirelli a difference of around six tenths in terms of performance potential around the Red Bull Ring.

That could well mean that even if Vettel makes his usual gain of 0.3-0.4s relative to the pace by Q3, it might not be enough.

"The car felt immediately better coming out of the garage in FP1 and also at the start at FP2," said Hamilton. "It got a little worse during the afternoon session and we will try to figure out why in the debrief. But the car does feel good overall, so I'm sure we can rectify it."

Inevitably, as the team worked to explore the limits of the package, problems did arise. Hamilton complained of understeer on one long run, with the balance changing after a change of tyres.

That perhaps more reflects the nature of a circuit where achieving a good front-to-rear balance is key to lap time, rather than any serious problem with the car.

Bottas was positive about progress, pointing to improved rear stability as a significant gain. That matched what could be seen from trackside in the first session.

"The initial feeling [was] they really worked well," Bottas said of the updates. "Especially the rear end of the car felt really stable. We still actually have some balance work to do to get the most out of it.

"I still feel there is more lap time to be found with this config[uration]."

Single-lap pace

1 Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m04.579s
2 Ferrari (Vettel), 1m04.815s
3 Red Bull (Ricciardo), 1m05.031s
4 Haas (Grosjean), 1m05.429s
5 Toro Rosso (Gasly), 1m05.758s
6 McLaren (Vandoorne), 1m05.930s
7 Renault (Sainz), 1m05.999s
8 Sauber (Leclerc), 1m06.096s
9 Force India (Ocon), 1m06.133s
10 Williams (Sirotkin), 1m06.326s

The one question raised by the single-lap pace was the tyres. Pirelli believes the step from supersoft to ultrasoft should be around 0.3s, but generally the gain was less than that. As well as the Mercedes pacesetting soft-shod lap, both Red Bull and Toro Rosso set their best times using supersofts.

This is because of the graining problems encountered on the ultrasofts, which could be either on front or rear axle depending on the car balance.

While that should improve as the track rubbers in and conditions improve, this has made it difficult to extract the expected performance gain from the ultrasofts.

That increases the chances of drivers attempting to get through Q2 on supersofts, and therefore start the race on them. It's expected to be a one-stop grand prix, and supersoft then softs seems the best available strategy.

Long-run pace (7-lap ultrasoft run)

1 Mercedes (Bottas), 1m08.394s
2 Ferrari (Vettel), 1m08.533
3 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m09.198s
4 Haas (Magnussen), 1m09.443s
5 Renault (Hulkenberg), 1m09.525s
6 McLaren (Vandoorne), 1m09.813s
7 Force India (Ocon), 1m09.941s
8 Toro Rosso (Hartley), 1m10.090s
9 Williams (Sirotkin), 1m10.305s
10 Sauber (Leclerc), 1m10.823s

Red Bull appears to be struggling with the ultrasofts, both in terms of single-lap and long-run pace. To this, the caveat must be added that Max Verstappen picked up some damage to his floor - even though he was quicker on his ultrasoft long run than Daniel Ricciardo was.

Ricciardo admitted he took a step backwards from practice one to practice two, but was confident of finding a "happy medium" for Saturday. Verstappen described his Friday as "average" and also expects a Saturday improvement. A difficult day for Red Bull on home soil.

Given the ultrasoft might not be used a great deal in the race, while the above is a good indicator of performance, both the single-lap and long run numbers perhaps do Mercedes a disservice.

Not only was Hamilton fastest using the soft Pirellis, but he also put in a strong stint on that compound. There were only six laps that could be counted in his long run, but he averaged a 1m08.302s - actually faster than Bottas's pace over seven laps on ultrasofts.

There are only supersoft runs to compare to Ferrari and Red Bull, but that gives Mercedes an advantage of around seven tenths relative to Ferrari (Raikkonen) and Red Bull (Verstappen).

This is not entirely surprising given that Mercedes tends to struggle as the tyre compounds get softer. With the hypersoft not being used, that already mitigates the problem, while on softs Hamilton looks strong despite his balance gripes.

Vettel's long run on the ultrasofts looked good - completing 17 counting laps at an average of 1m08.769s. That suggests the Ferrari works better on the ultrasofts here than Mercedes and Red Bull.

This is consistent with Vettel and Raikkonen using that compound in Q2 and starting the race on ultrasofts at Paul Ricard last week, instead of going for the supersofts used by Mercedes and Red Bull.

"I still feel there is more lap time to be found with this config" Valtteri Bottas

What happens on Saturday could tell us a lot about how the middle phase of the season will go.

Last time out, Mercedes introduced its phase 2.1 engine, which gave a tangible performance gain. This time, a substantial aerodynamic package also appears to have given a serious improvement on the chassis side.

Ferrari will hit back overnight, it always does. But there is very good reason for Maranello to be afraid of the strides made in the past week at Brackley.

The initiative has been exchanged from race to race between the big three teams in recent races, from Ferrari (Azerbaijan) to Mercedes (Spain) to Red Bull (Monaco) to Ferrari (Canada) to Mercedes (France).

If Mercedes can hang onto that initiative, particularly with a car that should excel at Silverstone, that's potentially hugely significant in the championship fight.

Unless, of course, Ferrari can pull off another overnight special.