The agonising choice that will define Lorenzo's legacy

It's been a little over two years since Jorge Lorenzo decided to jump ship from Yamaha to Ducati, and it's hard to argue that it's been anything other than a total failure.

Instant success on a bike so different to the M1 with which he had conquered the world on three occasions was not expected. But few would've predicted that 22 races into Lorenzo's time in red, he would still be win-less for Ducati.

For a rider who has 65 grand prix victories - a figure that puts him fifth on the all-time list behind Giacomo Agostini, Valentino Rossi, Angel Nieto and Mike Hailwood - to have scored just three podium finishes last season is little short of an embarrassment. And, with four races completed so far in 2018, he languishes down in 20th place in the riders' standings, having so far racked up a feeble six points and no top-10 finishes.

Lorenzo's struggles to mould the Desmosedici to his liking have been well-documented; ever since the second pre-season test in Thailand, where he insisted on reverting to last year's GP17, and he seems to have been chasing his tail to find a compromise that suits his riding style between the old machine and the GP18. The promised breakthrough has looked close to materialising on occasion, but it has yet to arrive, at least in any sustained, measurable way. And 18 months after he sampled the Ducati for the first time at Valencia in 2016, you have to wonder if it ever will.

It's against this backdrop that Lorenzo is faced with a choice that could come to define his MotoGP legacy: does he stick, or does he twist?

The door for him to remain at Ducati is still open for now, but he hasn't yet been made an offer by the Italian marque as it first looks to nail down the man upon whom its title hopes rest for the foreseeable future: Andrea Dovizioso.

At the same time, Suzuki has made Lorenzo its main target in the 2019 rider market as it looks to dispense with the services of Andrea Iannone, whose recent upturn in form looks to have arrived too late to save any chance of him staying at the team.

After a frenzied start to the silly season in which Maverick Vinales, Rossi and Marc Marquez all rushed to sign new deals with their current employers, with Tech3 Yamaha's Johann Zarco opting to join KTM soon after, the market has stagnated somewhat. The main cause for this is Dovizioso, who is known to have held talks with Honda and Suzuki as he applies pressure on Ducati to reward him financially for his incredible 2017 success, and the two parties remain far apart on terms.

Dovizioso turned down Ducati's initial offer, which is understood to have been in the region of €3.5million per year - nearly double what he's earning currently, but a long way short of the €12m Lorenzo is being paid on his current contract.

The Italian's annoyance that Ducati had not made him an offer in line with his financial expectations was clear at Jerez, when he said: "The only thing I want to say is that we should not have reached this situation, but it is what we have."

Lorenzo's renewal at Ducati has been reduced to secondary importance by Dovizioso

Ducati has already made it clear its overall budget for paying its riders has been reduced in comparison to 2016, when it broke the bank to lure Lorenzo from Yamaha. And the more cash it is forced to offer Dovizioso, the less it will have left over to offer Lorenzo.

For those that have followed Dovizioso during his MotoGP career, the situation is scarcely credible. Remember that the Italian, who had just one premier class win to his name at the time, barely clung on to his current ride when Lorenzo was signed and only just edged out his then team-mate Iannone. But that was the old Dovizioso. Lorenzo might have been an expensive failure from the perspective of his results, but another way to look at it is that his arrival at Ducati gave it the potential champion it needed - just not the one it expected, as it actually galvanised Dovizioso.

The fact is that Dovizioso holds all the cards in current negotiations with Ducati, which knows it cannot afford to lose the man that has transformed it into a title contender for the first time since the Casey Stoner era. Lorenzo's renewal has been reduced to secondary importance.

That isn't to say Lorenzo moving to Suzuki is a sure thing, though. Although many within the team are convinced his high-cornering speed riding style would be the perfect fit for the nimble GSX-RR bike, there are still some reservations. Chief among these is the sheer price Lorenzo's services command, and the ongoing saga that is Suzuki's so far fruitless attempts to sign a satellite team is a clear indication of how keen the marque's hierarchy in Japan is to keep a strict lid on spending.

Something of a standoff appears to have developed. Suzuki has yet to make an offer to Lorenzo, as it wants an assurance that the three-time champion is definitely looking to leave Ducati. Lorenzo, meanwhile, wants an offer on the table before he commits to a move.

It's thought an offer around the €3.5m mark, with bonuses, would be enough to tempt him to quit Ducati - but can Suzuki's bosses be persuaded to offer that much?

Lorenzo, for his part, believes he has time on his side, and is aiming to make a decision on his future following June's Barcelona race after being buoyed by his strongest showing of the year so far at Jerez last time out.

Although he failed to score, after he was caught up in a crash with Dovizioso and Dani Pedrosa, Jerez was an encouraging race for Lorenzo. He led for the first time since Sepang last October, and without the incident he could well have finished a solid fourth. Should he keep up that kind of form for the next three races, Lorenzo could yet elect to stay put, and the fact he is set to race the new chassis he tried in a private test at Mugello last week this weekend at Le Mans is an encouraging sign.

Several other dominoes in the rider market depend on Lorenzo's final choice, but Pedrosa isn't one of them. His only realistic alternative to staying alongside Marquez at the works Honda team was a KTM ride, and that's gone to Zarco.

Suzuki isn't interested in Pedrosa, who has a reputation for being tough with his crew members and is on his third crew chief in four years. If Lorenzo stays at Ducati, it's likely Honda will likely start the process of preparing a young rider again by signing 2017 Moto3 champion Joan Mir.

Mir, who has made a strong start to his rookie Moto2 season with the Marc VDS team, is also known to be a favourite of new Honda team boss Alberto Puig. But it's more likely Puig will offer Pedrosa a new one-year deal than take such a punt.

Marquez's remarks in the pre-event press conference at Jerez were telling: "The only fast riders that are available are Dovizioso and Pedrosa." He knows Dovizioso isn't realistically going anywhere, so the message was aimed at Honda - keep Pedrosa.

Mir could then be on standby as an option for Honda in 2020, as a quasi-insurance policy against Marquez deciding to defect to a rival manufacturer for the 2021 season.

Were Lorenzo to leave Ducati, it raises an interesting question as to who would replace him alongside Dovizioso. Danilo Petrucci, who already rides the GP18 for the Pramac satellite team, is the natural choice, and Ducati even has an option on his services.

Once Dovizioso is signed, and Lorenzo makes up his mind, all the other puzzle pieces will fall into place

But Jack Miller has also been impressive in his first four races on Pramac's GP17, famously taking pole and contending for his second MotoGP victory in Argentina last month, and at 23 he is unquestionably the better long-term bet.

Though there has been talk of Iannone going back to the Ducati camp after his Suzuki stint, such a move is highly unlikely. Aprilia, on the other hand, is believed to be interested in placing him alongside Aleix Espargaro, who will have little option but to stay put.

Once Dovizioso is signed, and Lorenzo makes up his mind, it's likely all the other puzzle pieces will fall into place relatively quickly. Two years ago, all 12 factory seats were signed, sealed and delivered by the end of June, and it seems likely the same will happen again this time around.

But, the way things pan out will depend largely on what Lorenzo chooses to do. Several careers - as well as the latter part of his own - are hinging on his decision.