The winners and losers of F1 2018 so far

With four races in the history books, all three of the top teams having won and Lewis Hamilton at the top of the championship, we've now had enough races to build up a true picture of the competitive order so far in the 2018 Formula 1 season.

So who is lighting up the timesheets, who is showing a glimmer of promise and whose dimmer switch is stuck in the off position in terms of performance after the early stages of the campaign?

To look at this, I have taken each team's fastest lap over each of the first four races and expressed them as an percentage of the outright fastest. The average of these four figures for each team gives their performance over the first four races.

I have also looked to see if a team has improved compared to last season, and how the last race (Azerbaijan) compares to the average of 2018 so far, to see if there are any trends.

By expressing these lap times as a percentage, with fastest equaling 100.000%, it equally weights the circuits so far. If a team had been fastest in all four events, its average performance would be 100.000%.

1 Ferrari

Four race average 100.205%
Last Race 100.000%
2017 season 100.263%

From these figures, Ferrari's performance has improved slightly compared to last season. But you could say the four-race average is skewed a little because it didn't get the best from the car in Australia while it was still trying to get on top of the set-up demands of its changed concept.

But Ferrari has been the fastest since then. I'm sure Ferrari would love to win both championships, but it's clear the drivers' is the more important one. To have any hope of doing this, Ferrari needs to keep pushing on with development as Mercedes won't stand still.

Ferrari must strike while the iron's hot and needs to avoid throwing away points as Sebastian Vettel did in Baku. After all, we could be looking at a Vettel clean sweep of the season so far if things had only gone a little differently.

The car is quick on a Saturday, and there's not much wrong with it on a Sunday either. So, the development direction should be fairly easy to define. It's 'more downforce please', and a little extra power wouldn't go amiss.

2 Mercedes

Four-race average 100.237%
Last race 100.176%
2017 season 100.085%

Mercedes was slightly better in the last race compared to the four-race average, but when you consider how fast Lewis Hamilton was in qualifying in Australia, being outqualified by Ferrari in the next three races must have come as a bit of a shock.

Mercedes has also lost a reasonable amount of performance to the average of last year, so has a lot of work to do. The car is better on harder tyres than it is on the softer qualifying versions, but it is when the tyres are new that Mercedes seems to have the most problems.

Normally, this is more down to the inherent balance of the car than just the tyres. I still maintain Mercedes should have spent more time than it did on the softer tyres during pre-season testing.
 Mercedes knew it had this sort of problem as it was an underlying one last year. Yet Mercedes let eight days of testing slip away without addressing it. 


The development direction of the car is always difficult to define if your car is not performing as the simulation suggests from the performance data you use to drive it. That means your simulation is out to lunch, your input data is wrong, or there is a circuit-to-windtunnel/CFD problem. Sorting out which of these needs addressing is no easy feat.

3 Red Bull

Four-race average 100.639%
Last race 100.407%
2017 season 100.958%

Red Bull's four-race average is better than its average performance from last year, but it did start the 2017 season well off the pace. Over the last four races of 2017, Red Bull was at 100.547%, so actually it's slightly worse off than at the end of last year.

Red Bull won a race with Daniel Ricciardo after an inspired strategy call in China, and on race day it is much more competitive. But that doesn't matter if you wipe each other out, as Ricciardo and Max Verstappen did in Baku.

I think the Red Bull chassis is at least a match for Ferrari and Mercedes, but it needs a little help from Renault. As it is now starting talks with Honda for a possible power unit supply for 2019, I'm pretty sure it will be one of the last Renault power unit users to get its hands on any developments.

All Red Bull can do is develop the chassis, keep the drivers a bit further apart on race day and pick up the results where possible. But its already off the pace in both championships and it seems another year of picking up the odd win is what Red Bull faces.

4 Renault

Four-race average 101.704%
Last race 101.545%
2017 season 102.186%

And then come the rest. The midfield group is a long way off the top three, but is pretty closely matched. Blink at the wrong moment and you can very easily lose a couple of grid positions.

Renault has gained on overall performance compared to last year, but is still around 1% off the top three, which equates to a second around a track like Baku. Red Bull is a fair measure given they share the same engine.

Renault has been reasonably consistent, which shows the team and drivers know how to get the best out of it. Bob Bell was quoted as saying the car is a lot like everyone else's: the rear is a little nervous on the way in, goes to mid-corner understeer and lacks traction on the exit. He's right that everyone has the problems, it's just that the mid-corner speed of the faster cars is a bit more. So the same problems, just at higher speed.

If the Renault is consistent, then the development direction is simple enough - just find more downforce and with that will come more grip and extra corner speed. It's not easy, but at least Renault can put a plan in place and improve. 



5 Haas

Four-race average 101.949%
Last race 102.144%
2017 season 102.858%

The third season has been a marked improvement for Haas. By now, it has got most things in place and a well-defined working structure with chassis builder Dallara and technical partner Ferrari, meaning it can concentrate on being a race team. But consistency remains a problem and it has only picked up two points finishes out of a possible eight. 


The season started with conspiracy theories about the team's working relationship with Ferrari, but that's been diluted now Haas has had a couple of not-so-good weekends. The interesting thing is that Haas was actually further away from the outright pace in Australia, when it should have finished fourth and fifth, than in the next three races.

It seems Romain Grosjean still has his problems keeping it all together for a weekend, while Kevin Magnussen seems to be coming of age and, as it is his second year with the team, he will probably start driving its development direction to suit his style of driving.

That's no bad thing, as I think that is one thing it is missing. Having a driver to focus on and get consistent direction from is vitally important for the guys back at base trying to find performance.



6 Force India

Four-race average 102.129%
Last race 101.010%
2017 season 102.199%

Force India had hoped that its pre-Melbourne update would take it back to where it ended last season, but it didn't quite work as planned. There were some underlying problems with it and it didn't perform on the circuit as expected.

But Force India is an experienced, hard-working team, so spent a lot of time understanding the problems. The qualifying performance in Baku, when it was best of the rest and locked out the fourth row, shows Force India is some way towards rectifying its problems.

Yes, it did get a podium finish with Sergio Perez, but that was more down to the rate of attrition of the frontrunners. But if you are best of the rest, then you have the chance to take what's on offer and say thanks. 


Now that Force India appears to be on top of the problems, it needs to continue developing in that direction. A lot will have been learned from the research done to understand the car and how it works on track compared to the windtunnel and CFD.

As I've always said, the numbers in the windtunnel can be great, but if there's an underlying problem with aerodynamic or airflow stability the potential performance disappears very quickly. If that happens, you have to forget about development until you understand what the problems are.

7 McLaren

Four-race average 102.519%
Last race 102.169%
2017 season 102.510%

It's quite amazing that McLaren's average performance over these first four races is almost identical to its 2017 average performance! When you consider that last year it apparently had a GP2 engine, and now has a race-winning power unit, a major step forward was expected. But that hasn't happened. 


At long last, McLaren is now starting to run the car at a more optimum downforce level to suit the circuits. Last year, it was saying it had the best chassis in the pitlane but was very slow on the straights because it was running such high downforce levels. But now it has Red Bull and Renault to compare itself with, so, as many have said, there's no hiding place anymore.

McLaren is planning a major upgrade for Barcelona, so we need to see how that goes. But it's qualifying that's a particular struggle. As with Mercedes, that one lap on fresh tyres doesn't seem to give the benefit of extra grip so it's important these developments don't make things worse.

The finger pointing has also started. Last week, Tim Goss was moved out of his role as technical director. That sort of thing certainly shakes things up, but not necessarily for the better. Everyone then starts looking over their shoulder, and sometimes the attitude taken is that it's better to keep your gob shut rather than say something that someone else doesn't agree with. 



8 Toro Rosso

Four-race average 102.907%
Last race 102.954%
2017 season 102.730%

When you consider that Toro Rosso moved from Renault to Honda over the winter and that it is a small team with limited resources doing its own car completely from front to back, it has done an exceptional job. And when you have two relatively inexperienced drivers, the team has to lead the way. 


Toro Rosso is definitely revelling in its relationship with Honda and doing everything it can to build for the future, so that is good. And on the way, Pierre Gasly's performance in finishing fourth in Bahrain was exceptional.

The only problem is there hasn't been a repeat of that, so consistency is lacking. 
If it's in there for one race, then it should be nearly there in some other races. So the team needs to look at why the inconsistency is there and rectify it before a step forward can be taken.

9 Williams

Four-race average 103.255%
Last race 102.056%
2017 season 102.524%

This has probably been a start to the season that Williams will wish to forget. But the main question is, before pre-season testing was this was the performance that it was expecting?
 If not, then this is the question that needs to be answered.

As I said when the car was released, it has taken a major step forward on aerodynamic philosophy. The car has a combination of Mercedes and Ferrari concepts and all this is OK as long as it works, which evidently it didn't do for the first three races.

Baku was a little better, so perhaps the team is now on top of it. But Paddy Lowe did admit that it was partly down to the track's characteristics rather than a complete transformation.

Before piling on development components, Williams needs to make sure it has identified why it struggled until now. It is so easy to hope that you come up with the magical fix, but in reality that never happens and if you keep throwing new bits on you just lose yourself, and with that confidence to do anything.



10 Sauber

Four-race average 103.404%
Last race 102.221%
2017 season 104.129%


Sauber has definitely improved from 2017, but then again there was a lot of room for improvement. It now has the latest Ferrari engine package, and through the Alfa Romeo deal a closer partnership with the manufacturer. It's now about making all that work together.

Charles Leclerc's Baku performance was pretty impressive. He was reasonably good in qualifying and then strong in the race on his way to sixth. Yes, he and Sauber benefitted from other drivers hitting trouble, but he kept it together.

All Sauber can do is keep learning about the car and how it is working. The rear of the car looks a bit lively both into and out of the corners, so a bit more stability there might just give the drivers some more confidence and help them go off less.

We've also seen a big change with technical director Jorg Zander departing. As I said with McLaren, this is not always positive and at best it takes a little while for things to settle down.

Conclusion: it's so close that 'random' elements could swing things

One of the interesting things is that, other than Haas and Toro Rosso, all of the teams were stronger than their four-race average in Baku. Some by a small margin, and some - Sauber, Williams and Force India - by a significant amount.


This shows that their development directions are now proving fruitful. If that trend continues then the midfield battle is going to get even tougher. Unfortunately, the step from the top three teams to the rest is still large. Teams like McLaren and Renault have the budget to close this gap, but they need development ideas and direction to achieve this, which can be even tougher to come by than the budget.


Historically, Barcelona is the first non-flyaway race so normally this is where the teams bring major upgrades. But with the competition being so tough at the moment that trend has changed and most teams have something for every race. I'm sure we will still see some upgrades and it will be interesting to compare performance at Barcelona to the first four races of this season to see if anyone has moved forward significantly.


From its performance in pre-season testing at Barcelona, albeit doing most of its running on medium compound Pirellis, Mercedes should be strong. But that was over two months ago. The track had also just been resurfaced and that will have settled in, and will alter grip levels.

If the championships are decided by a button pressed in race control and when, then it is a bit artificial

Of course, performance is only part of the equation and four races in, we haven't had a 'rightful' winner yet. Hamilton should have won in Australia, Valtteri Bottas should have won in Bahrain and again in China, and Vettel should have won in Azerbaijan. That shows we are in for a very unpredictable season, which is all well and good, but my main concern is that the best driver/team combination might not take the laurels at the end of the season.

No matter what happens along the way, the best deserve to win.
 If the drivers' and constructors' championships are decided on what button someone presses in race control and on what lap they do it, then it is a bit artificial. As we have seen over these first four races, the difference made to the race result by either the virtual safety car or the actual safety car - and the difference between the two - can be huge and I think we need a definitive reason for both.

A VSC should be put out for on-track debris, and there should be another flag colour waved in the relevant zone so that drivers should know they must be prepared to stop and keep to a certain part of the track. Then the safety car can be used for what it was created for - safety. If there's a chance a driver or anyone else has been hurt or if the track is partially blocked, then you send it out.

If this was a reasonably hard and fast rule and the FIA stuck with it, then the teams and drivers would know what they are dealing with and could react accordingly. 
At the moment, for me, it's a bit random and I would hate for anyone to be able to point the finger at race control and suggest the end result was fixed or not reflect the reality of who had done the best job at the end of the season.