The dark horse that should be taking F1 2018 by storm

Heartbroken. Painful. Hurt. Terrible.

These were the words that Valtteri Bottas used to describe how he felt after losing victory in Baku with a late puncture. He was right to cheekily suggest that the only real cure to get over the disappointment was to go out and drink 10 pints of beer.

But however hazy his head might have been on Monday morning, Bottas would be well advised to take a step back from the immediate gut-wrenching torment of the blowout, and instead reflect on a campaign that has been much better than his results show.

Had the Bahrain Grand Prix been one lap longer (or Mercedes urged him to pick up his pace earlier), had Pierre Gasly and Brendon Hartley not triggered the safety car in China that helped Red Bull make a successful strategy gamble, and had he not hit that piece of debris in Azerbaijan, then Bottas might well have been celebrating a hat-trick of wins last weekend.

That would have meant waking up on Monday morning with the same sore head, but for totally different reasons. Add up the potential points he would have in that scenario, and Bottas could be sitting pretty at the top of the drivers' standings with 79 points, with a nice buffer over his pursuers. Instead he is 30 points adrift and not in a position where he can afford to fall much further back.

There are endless counter circumstances that could have come into play to help other drivers to those three wins, but Bottas has a decent claim to say they could have been his. None of those victories would have been fortuitous and each one would have been well deserved; showing that there appears to have been a step change in his form compared to last season.

Even that opening stint in Baku, where he fell away as it took more time for Mercedes' tyres to come up to temperature, was not a complete disaster. Although his pace wasn't very good, Bottas was able to manage it well enough so that when the tyres did get into the operating window, he could capitalise.

He certainly did a better job than Lewis Hamilton - who had rooted his tyres in trying to judge grip levels against how hard he should push. Later, once the tyres switched on, Bottas was brilliantly relentless on old rubber that may even have given him a sniff of the win even without the safety car intervention.

Bottas knows exactly what has gone begging in recent weeks, but that very few people have noticed this run of promise probably says more about the way that he goes about his job - without fanfare and drama - rather than anything he has done on track.

But that is only an image/perception factor outside of the team. Inside its Brackley base Mercedes is well aware of the value the Finn brings to the table. Speed-wise, there was a clear feeling at the end of last year that Bottas needed a good winter to lift his game. In the second half of 2017, he was occasionally lacking in terms of speed and aggression. It was about finding the killer instinct - which he finally showed at the season finale in Abu Dhabi - and then maintaining it.

Hamilton's decision to head straight from parc ferme to Bottas's room in the Baku paddock wasn't a stunt done for the cameras, it was something genuine

Early indications are that Bottas has had the winter he needed and developed into the right zone - but the qualifying error he made in Australia overshadowed his progress.

Putting that Melbourne disaster behind him, in Mercedes' tricky W09, he outqualified Hamilton at Sakhir and Shanghai - and has been the fastest Mercedes driver in the last two races. That has put him in good stead to earn a new contract with the team for 2019.

With the on-track doubts about Bottas having been eased, there appears little reason for Mercedes to look elsewhere - especially with the way he has gelled so well inside the team and helped improve its atmosphere off track. The animosity and tension that overshadowed Mercedes when Hamilton was partnered with Nico Rosberg evaporated when Bottas arrived.

There were suggestions that Hamilton's brilliance last year was helped by him feeling more comfortable in the environment around him, not constantly feeling threatened by a team-mate he didn't trust.

All the negatives the Rosberg/Hamilton rivalry brought to the team have been replaced with more positive feeling, even though things have not been totally straightforward. There was the Hungarian GP team orders situation last year, where Hamilton gave up points to return third place to Bottas, but it ultimately enhanced the trust between the drivers and the team.

Hamilton has talked of Bottas never deliberately withholding any information, which has allowed him to also open up a degree. On the grid at Austin last October, Hamilton even advised Bottas to make a small change to his front wing to help his performance.

Hamilton's decision to head straight from parc ferme to Bottas's room in the Baku paddock to console his team-mate, rather than first doing the podium ceremony, demonstrated the harmony between the drivers. This wasn't a stunt done for the cameras, it was something genuine.

That kind of bond - and the fact that Hamilton thrives more when surrounded by a happy bubble and feeling he is the alpha male - is doing Bottas good too. For Mercedes, a company that loves the ethos of team spirit, having that kind of relationship between its drivers is essential.

It's why Mercedes has been reluctant to go chasing for drivers like Fernando Alonso and Max Verstappen - there are no doubts about their speed but they do come with a bit of political baggage that could upset the happy ship.

All Bottas had to bring over the off-season was a few missing tenths, and there was a belief that a full winter of preparation rather than the few weeks he had ahead of 2017 would help him.

Apart from Australia, he hasn't thrown away good opportunities, as Kimi Raikkonen has done at Ferrari in qualifying. And he hasn't made the mistakes in races that Sebastian Vettel, Hamilton and the Red Bull boys have made. He has just kept his head down and got on with it.

Yes, Bottas was criticised for not being a tad more aggressive on the final lap in Bahrain, but that's an easy thing to go after him for with the benefit of hindsight. Off the back of Australia, Bottas knew he needed some solid points on the board; and better to finish second than take off your front wing and be out on the spot. In China, Bottas was at his clinical best. He did exactly what was needed to leapfrog Vettel at the stops and then was simply unlucky to with the safety car.

On the back of the form Bottas has shown in recent races - and just how close he was to that hat-trick - Mercedes would have to be pretty cut-throat to think he doesn't have the potential to justify keeping his place.

Indeed, as Toto Wolff rightly pointed out after Baku: "Apart from Valtteri, everyone made mistakes today."

Dwelling on 'what if' will not get Bottas the lost points back - and being 30 points behind Hamilton at this stage of the season is not going to be an easy task to recover - especially when it appears that Ferrari has the fastest car.

But if anyone is capable of shutting off the distractions of the outside world, resetting his head and quietly getting on with the job in hand, it's Bottas.

Don't discount this quiet dark horse from the 2018 title battle just yet.