Why Bottas and Raikkonen should be seriously worried

Four of the drivers in Formula 1's big three teams are out of contract at the end of the season, and while there's no doubt Lewis Hamilton has a Mercedes deal waiting for him to sign if he wants it, there remain question marks over where the other three will ply their trades in 2019. Of those, one stands head and shoulders above the rest in terms of what they offer to a team.

For while Valtteri Bottas and Kimi Raikkonen have both had strong starts to the season, Red Bull's Daniel Ricciardo reminded everyone in the Chinese Grand Prix that he brings a little magic to a team. He has the consistent ability to make things happen, to force the issue in a race situation in a way few others can.

You can rationalise his Shanghai charge from sixth to first easily enough. After all, he was assisted by team-mate Max Verstappen's blunders and had the advantage of fresher, softer tyres than those he was passing. But how many times have we seen drivers fail to capitalise on such an advantage in race conditions? It wasn't easy, Ricciardo just made it look that way.

And how many times have we seen Ricciardo make the most of such a situation before? Even when you have a little more grip, the ability to judge to perfection when to attack, and how aggressive to be, is a rare and difficult one. Just ask Verstappen.

Some are criticised for their inability to win races from further down the grid. All six of Ricciardo's victories have come from fourth place on the grid or lower, thanks to his winning days being in Red Bull machinery that rarely had the qualifying pace to get onto the front row.

Not one of Sebastian Vettel's 49 victories has come from a lower starting position than third, and of Lewis Hamilton's 62 wins only four have come from below third on the grid.

You can take different perspectives on such statistics, and you could easily argue Ricciardo is a qualifying underachiever. Or, to modify a saying from football about goalscorers, a winner of great races rather than a great race winner.

It's true he's been giving away a smidgen to Verstappen in qualifying of late (the average gap this season is 0.202 seconds), but he's far from a poor qualifier. After all, he would have won the 2016 Monaco Grand Prix from pole position had a pitstop blunder not dropped him behind Hamilton. And in his time at Red Bull, it has been at best the second-best car in qualifying trim and very much second and third row fodder. Of the 13 front-row starts Red Bull has had in the V6 turbo hybrid era, seven have been down to Ricciardo. And more wins would have been forthcoming in stronger machinery.

Ricciardo also has a quality he shares with Rosberg in his locker - the capacity to keep bettering himself

When it comes to comparing Ricciardo to the other out-of-contract top guns (Hamilton excluded), he is capable of doing something they are not - right now at least. Kimi Raikkonen has won a remarkable eight of his 20 grands prix from fourth on the grid or lower - his stunning victory at Suzuka in 2005 from 17th on the grid the most famous.

But he hasn't won since 2013, and the majority of his victories came in the first decade of the 21st century. While he still has his moments, and is doing a good job for Ferrari so far this year, he no longer has that insistent, indomitable ability to make things happen. How many times during his spell at Lotus did he have the performance late on to attack in races, but not manage to press home that advantage?

As for Bottas, two of his three wins have come from pole position, while his first in Russia last year was as a result of passing the two Ferraris on the run to Turn 2 from third on the grid. As we saw in Bahrain, there are question marks about whether Bottas has that insistent killer instinct.

It shouldn't be underestimated how rare this quality Ricciardo has is, as it's not even a pre-requisite for a world champion. Take Nico Rosberg, for example, another driver who didn't take any of his 23 wins from lower than third on the grid. For all the remarkable heights he scaled in winning the 2016 world title, he didn't win races like Ricciardo does.

Ricciardo's great ability is reading the situation in front of him. In a race like China, the clock was against him, because while fresher, softer rubber offers a significant grip advantage it diminishes with time. Every extra corner you spend needlessly behind a rival costs you, particularly in terms of thermal degradation as you struggle in the turbulence.

What Ricciardo is able to do is launch moves that seem optimistic - his passes on Bottas and Hamilton are both cases in point. He seemingly comes from too far back, but after hitting the brakes is able to modulate the retardation to put his car insistently up the inside. So regularly does he do this that, like the days when drivers used to fear the yellow-and-green helmet of Senna in their mirrors, Ricciardo has his prey defeated before he even attacks.

Ricciardo also has something else in his locker, a quality he shares with Rosberg: the capacity to keep bettering himself. By his own admission, the strength of Verstappen has forced him to evaluate every aspect of his game and raise it. This is an ability we've seen before.

When he was plunged in against Vettel in 2014 at Red Bull, he had to up his game and did so to stunning effect by winning three races. Two of them, in Canada and Hungary, were a result of late charges. You don't overtake Fernando Alonso less than three laps from home, even with a pace advantage, as he did at the Hungaroring, unless you are a serious player.

"It came naturally," says Ricciardo of how he found the killer instinct. "I always feel like I've had it in me, I was also a good or aggressive kind of overtaker.

"The first few years of Toro Rosso, I probably just lacked a bit of confidence, in F1 I was probably a bit too overwhelmed and put it on a pedestal. Then as soon as I got to Red Bull I just acknowledged it was my real chance, my chance to create my reputation.

"I knew if the first season, or even the first few races, I was swamped by everyone I would kind have that and everyone would be like 'Oh he's the easy guy'. I was conscious of it but I think it happened naturally.

Clarity of purpose, the ability to jeopardise a solid result to get a great one, is not to be underestimated

"In Canada [the first win], for example, I knew if I could get around [Sergio] Perez my first win was in sight. That was all I needed to be decisive. I'd had some podiums already that year, I wasn't content just finishing third again. I could see the win and that was more motivation, that made the decisiveness easier."

That clarity of purpose, the ability to jeopardise a solid result to get a great one, is not to be underestimated. In order to win, you must be willing to risk losing. And Ricciardo has shown time and again he's not a man to gamble against.

Even to get his opportunity at Red Bull required serious introspection and game-raising under pressure. When Mark Webber's retirement was announced in the build up to the 2013 British Grand Prix, Red Bull team principal Christian Horner said the two Toro Rosso drivers - Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Vergne - were at the head of the queue.

The trouble for Ricciardo was that, while he had been the stronger performer overall of the two in 2012, he'd had a shaky spell. In Monaco and Canada, Vergne picked up two strong results and it seemed things were finally clicking for the rapid Frenchman.

But after spending time with the team post-Canada and re-assessing the way they did things, Ricciardo recovered while Vergne struggled under pressure. The Australian got the drive. That ability to self-scrutinise has always served him well.

He's also capable of being far more ruthless than his affable character outside the car suggests. The honey badger epithet is appropriate - an ostensibly inoffensive animal whose sharp teeth and claws aren't obvious until you are in a battle with them. How many other drivers in his position could have held their own against a force of nature like Verstappen in the same team?

For all their qualities, neither Bottas nor Raikkonen are the same. Bottas has had, Australia qualifying shunt aside, a fine start to the year and is making a good case to be retained by Mercedes. When the team is struggling, he generally is able to outperform Hamilton, but when things are going well he seems to slide back into the number two role.

While he now has a platform in 2018 to build from, and has the class and the ability to do so, he still has work to do to convince he's entirely at home at the front of the field.

As for Raikkonen, he's now proving to be the perfect number two to Vettel and, if he keeps doing what he's doing, seems more likely than not to pick up a first victory in half-a-decade this year. But he doesn't have that insistent ability to seize a race as Ricciardo did in China.

In Ferrari's position, signing Ricciardo would be a no-brainer. He would be an upgrade on Raikkonen, is great value for sponsors, would give the team a second driver capable of fighting for a title and give Vettel the hurry up.

But that's the kind of team that I would lean towards running, not the one Ferrari operates. There has been a desire for a clear number two, so by its own standards, signing Ricciardo would be considered a potentially disruptive risk. Still, we can but hope it will try because it would be fascinating to see a recreation of the Vettel vs Ricciardo intra-team battle.

If the top teams are all picking the strongest available option they should all be chasing Ricciardo. He has the ideal blend of experience, hunger, racecraft and speed

That said, there are signs Ferrari is considering modifying its approach and it is seriously considering bringing Ricciardo in for 2019. But given the team's history and Raikkonen's form it's far from a foregone conclusion it will take him, even though committing to a line-up of Ricciardo and Vettel, the latter of which has a deal through to the end of 2020, would be an impressive statement of intent.

At Mercedes, Hamilton has yet to sign his new deal, and if Mercedes can't get a long-term commitment it will perhaps make signing Ricciardo more appealing. But if Hamilton is guaranteed to be there for a couple more seasons, and the team is convinced he won't make a Rosberg-like retirement decision, then Bottas serves it well.

But what either team would get out of Ricciardo is the driver who makes things happen. Even if he does play a supporting role, he will do so in a different way. He will not only rack up significant points, he will be more often in play in the battle at the front.

More likely, he will also be a credible world championship threat. After all, the ability he shows to deliver when the opportunities are there under pressure is one of the key characteristics of a champion.

As for Red Bull, it's a team Ricciardo knows can produce a good car but has continuing question marks over the engine. And with pressure building for him to decide what he does in 2019, it's pressing either for Renault to show it can make the strides it promises or for Honda to prove definitively that it has got its act together.

By rights, if the top teams are all picking a driver purely based on getting the strongest available option in the car, then they should all be chasing Ricciardo. He's the ideal blend of experience, hunger, racecraft and speed - as well as seemingly having the ability to fit into any team without being disruptive thanks to his phlegmatic attitude.

That's why he's such bad news for Bottas and for Raikkonen. But the good news for the duo is many team bosses, for good reasons, may fear putting Ricciardo up against their established stars.

Then again, in F1 you have to do everything you can to maximise your results, and one way to do so is to have the strongest possible driver line-up. That's why they should all be after Ricciardo - the man who makes things happen on circuit like no-one else in F1.