Autosport predicts F1 2018

After Ferrari and Sebastian Vettel ran Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton close for both Formula 1 world championships last year, hopes of a repeat scenario were played down based on 2018 pre-season testing despite Vettel setting the fastest lap of the fortnight.

But the interference of peculiar weather conditions at Barcelona, plus the introduction of an expanded range of tyres from Pirelli, made it more difficult than ever to make any conclusive readings into times, and there is still hope that this year could provide the close three-way fight at the front - with Red Bull included - that we anticipated in 2017.

Autosport's panel is back once again to predict how the contenders will fare. With a tried and tested method - each writer pitches their top 10, which are then combined to produce an overall result using the F1 points system - here are the results.

THE PANEL: Ben Anderson (F1 Editor), Gary Anderson (Technical Consultant), Edd Straw (Grand Prix Editor), Scott Mitchell (F1 Reporter), James Roberts (Special Contributor), Adam Cooper (Special Contributor), Karun Chandhok (Ex-F1 driver), Glenn Freeman (Autosport.com Editor), Kevin Turner (Autosport Magazine Editor), Matt Beer (Autosport.com Deputy Editor), Pablo Elizalde (Motorsport.com News Editor, Europe), Matt James (Motorsport News Editor), Jamie Klein (Motorsport.com UK Editor), Valentin Khorounzhiy (Motorsport.com News Editor)

10th: Esteban Ocon

Top prediction: 6th (Gary Anderson)

MATT JAMES (@MattJMNews): Force India is used to performing miracles, and the Mercedes junior is a wizard. If the car is up to the job, then he will take the next step in his career development.

ADAM COOPER (@adamcooperf1): I nearly put Stoffel Vandoorne 10th, and I'm sure the Belgian will have good days, but despite low-key testing form Force India will have another solid year. It's a well-matched pair, but in his second full year I can see Ocon beating Sergio Perez.

KEVIN TURNER (@KRT917): Force India will slip back, but only because the bigger powerhouses of McLaren and Renault are getting their acts together. The team will remain a compact, effective unit, and Ocon has shown he has the potential to edge ahead of team-mate Sergio Perez in the midfield battle.

GLENN FREEMAN (@glenn_autosport): Being in a position to fall out with experienced team-mate Perez so many times in his first full season was a magnificent achievement. If he's the real deal - and I think he is - then Ocon will take the next step this year and lead the line in what is going to be a tough season for Force India.

MATT BEER (@mattofautosport): There's something very sensible about how Ocon's F1 rise is going. As 2017 progressed he became the man to watch at Force India, up against a very strong and well-established team-mate too. Next up: podiums and clear team number one status.

SCOTT MITCHELL (@ScottAutosport): F1's not short of mega young talent at the moment - Verstappen, Sainz, Vandoorne, Ocon, Leclerc... Ocon's arguably got the best shot of being world champion first. No, not with Force India in 2018! But if he does the business this year, might he be in a Mercedes next? Watch this predictions' feature in 12 months' time...

9th: Carlos Sainz Jr

Top prediction: 6th (Matt Beer)

MB: By pairing two very talented drivers yet to finish on an F1 podium, Renault has created probably the most exciting line-up on the grid. We still don't know for sure what Sainz is ultimately capable of, but he's given enough hints that he's something special. Time to prove it.

BEN ANDERSON (@BenAndersonAuto): Sainz has rounded himself into a properly impressive grand prix driver. I expect him to push Hulkenberg hard, but based on Sainz's late-2017 Renault cameo he may still need a bit of time to get right on Hulkenberg's case.

JAMES ROBERTS (@JRobertsF1): Will excel in a breakthrough year for the Spaniard, getting the measure of his team-mate and finally showing the world what he's capable of.

PABLO ELIZALDE (@EliGP): Sainz will prove to be a good match for Hulkenberg and his contribution to helping Renault beat McLaren to the top of the midfield pack will be crucial. But like his team-mate and the McLarens, the highest he can expect to fight for most of the year will be seventh position.

GARY ANDERSON: Quick and will keep the Hulk honest but over his career with Toro Rosso he has been a bit inconsistent. He will need to tidy that up, but I have confidence in him being able to do that.

KARUN CHANDHOK (@karunchandhok): A hard choice between Nico and Carlos but I do think that the difference of having a year's experience in the team may just help the German slightly this year.

8th: Nico Hulkenberg

Top prediction: 6th (Matt James)

MJ: OK, so this is more of an emotional prediction rather than a realistic one, but come on... The Hulk deserves a decent season and the car looks solid. Intelligent racer who will get the most from the car.

AC: Everything points to Renault having a much stronger year, but on balance I think its customers will still come out ahead. Hulkenberg and Sainz will be close, but I'll put the German ahead on points, if only just.

EDD STRAW (@EddStrawF1): The intra-team fight at Renault will be a fascinating one, and if the car is reliable there will be plenty of points.

BA: Hulkenberg is a mega qualifier, the Renault works outfit is improving rapidly, finished last season the best of the midfield teams, and should have the measure of Force India this year. Hulkenberg's extra experience just gives him the nod over Sainz.

MB: Is Hulkenberg's lack of F1 podiums a travesty of justice or a sign the top teams were right to spurn him all these years? A rising Renault team is the ideal place for him to show where he's going to fit into F1 history - as a champion-in-waiting overlooked for too long or a disappointment whose A1GP and GP2 heroics were just a tease.

JAMIE KLEIN (@JamieKlein_): A much-improved Renault means this will be the year Hulkenberg finally breaks his podium duck, and his full season of experience at Enstone will help him maintain the upper hand over team-mate Sainz.

VALENTIN KHOROUNZHIY (@vkhorounzhiy): Looks to have benefitted from the new higher-downforce regulations, and Renault's continued progress should be a mental boost. Now is the time to start consistently delivering on the potential he's shown glimpses of since his arrival to F1.

7th: Fernando Alonso

Top prediction: 7th (Adam Cooper, Ben Anderson, James Roberts, Pablo Elizalde, Kevin Turner, Karun Chandhok, Glenn Freeman and Scott Mitchell)

AC: Testing was inconclusive and reliability poor, but in the end I think McLaren will have good pace, if not enough to challenge the established top three over the season. If anyone can wring the car's neck and get big points when there's an opportunity, it's Alonso.

JR: Will perform miracles in a troublesome McLaren, but poor reliability will scupper his points tally once again.

PE: Anything would be a step up for Alonso this season following the misery he has gone through over the past three years. But I would not expect McLaren to suddenly be in a position to challenge the top three teams, especially if the Renault engine has not taken a significant leap compared to last year. At least he might win Le Mans.

MB: This brilliant, incessantly newsworthy racer desperately deserves at least one more grand prix victory before his F1 career is over. A freak one would be fine. Given the twists Alonso's F1 story has taken, an out-of-the-blue victory in a wild race would be pretty fitting - and is really his only hope given the state of McLaren's pre-season.

SM: McLaren racing boss Eric Boullier said Fernando Alonso was a "different driver" in testing. Let's see if that transitions into the season - especially if McLaren's reliability fails to improve.

GF: Alonso's radio traffic has been amusing during the Honda years, but hopefully that spare mental capacity gets put to work pulling off giant-killing acts this year on the days McLaren gets it right.

6th: Kimi Raikkonen

Top prediction: 6th (Basically everyone)

KT: Where else could he finish? The top three teams are far enough ahead that Kimi's points-accumulation will keep him in sixth, but he'll rarely trouble those ahead. The question is: will he be able to get that one last win before Ferrari finally moves on?

PE: While Raikkonen showed glimpses of his old levels of brilliance last year, he has been far too inconsistent to be a challenger since he rejoined Ferrari in 2014. There is little reason to believe this year will be different. Scoring his first win since 2013 is not out of the question, but he will need all stars to align in order to end the drought.

GA: Old guys can still win but it just gets that little bit tougher. I don't think this year's Ferrari is at the same level as last year's relative to the others and as a definitive number two to Vettel, Kimi will suffer from that.

GF: It's been a charmed existence to hold on to one of the best seats in F1 for this long. Hopefully either Raikkonen rediscovers his form from a decade ago, or Charles Leclerc forces his way into Ferrari for 2019.

KC: Could this finally be the last hurrah for Kimi? Showed great qualifying pace on many occasions last year and will once again solidly rack up the points on a Sunday.

BA: Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Flashes of real speed. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Qualifying mistake. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Disappointing race pace. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Not enough points. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Inexplicably re-signed for another season!

5th: Daniel Ricciardo

Top prediction: Champion (Jamie Klein)

JK: Now in the prime of his career, 28-year-old Ricciardo has everything he needs to win the title: one-lap pace, racecraft, maturity and immense hunger. Red Bull just needs to provide him with the car to do it.

MJ: The Red Bull looks tasty, and there is more to come once we get into the season. He is also desperate to put one over the young upstart Max Verstappen, who could easily derail the Aussie's career. A decent car and hunger will drive him on.

MB: No result would make me happier than a Ricciardo world championship, and his racing spirit is unmatched even in a field this strong - he pulls off moves and charges beyond others' imagination. But he's up against a steamroller in Verstappen, and that steamroller is ultimately slightly faster than Ricciardo.

BA: The tyres are too robust for Ricciardo's old tricks to work these days, but he's a class act so expect some great races - particularly on street tracks. He'll push Verstappen hard, but I'm not sure he has the answer.

KT: The likeable Australian will be closer to Verstappen on pace than this list suggests, but Max will have the edge and Ricciardo may find himself playing second fiddle to - or even having to support, depending on how the title fight pans out - his younger team-mate.

KC: A big year for Daniel as it's contract time. The team have backed Max by signing him long term and he's now got to prove his value to them or indeed to Ferrari and Mercedes who have a seat available.

VK: Has long been good enough for a proper championship challenge in title-calibre F1 cars but, if the RB14 is one, recent trend has suggested Verstappen might get there first.

4th: Sebastian Vettel

Top prediction: 2nd (Adam Cooper, James Roberts, Pablo Elizalde, Glenn Freeman)

AC: Ferrari looked good in Barcelona, but we can only guess at the true picture relative to Mercedes, and how that will develop over a long 21-race season. Clearly Vettel will win races and be in the title picture, but ultimately Hamilton will have the edge.

PE: Ferrari missed a big chance last year in failing to beat Mercedes when the German squad had a 'weak' car in some races. I doubt that will be the case again this season, and Vettel will need his team to out-develop its rival throughout the year in order to stand a chance of beating Hamilton. Can it do it though? Recent history suggests otherwise.

BA: I hope I'm wrong and the Ferrari is a proper potential Merc-beater this year, but I fear this will be more like 2015 and Vettel will be an occasional annoyance rather than a title threat.

VK: Could do with another strong start to the season like in 2017, and there can be no repeat of his Baku antics. And even with that, Mercedes' stabilisation and Red Bull's gains could pose an insurmountable challenge for his hopes of a fifth title.

KT: Ferrari may struggle with its new 'high-rake' concept to start with and a stronger Red Bull will make Vettel's life harder in 2018. But there will still be days on which he shines and keeps Ferrari in the fight.

GA: Not sure that the car he has this year is quite as good as last year's, and the start of the season will be vitally important. If they are not right at he pointed end then Ferrari will start to panic and from there on in anything could happen at Maranello.

KC: I don't get the air of confidence around Ferrari this year after testing that I had last year. In many ways, they lost the title in 2017 and I do worry that this year could be a step back.

GF: Ferrari was incredibly hard to read in pre-season testing, so putting Vettel second is based on an assumption that even if it starts slowly, it will get its act together.

SM: Last season Vettel proved he is bizarrely fragile for a four-time world champion. If Ferrari's not as competitive as last season, the chinks in his armour could become gaping holes - similar to what we saw in 2014, and even in '16 at times.

3rd: Valtteri Bottas

Top prediction: Champion (Valentin Khorounzhiy)

GF: Everyone wants Bottas's seat for 2019, so he's going to have to step it up and be a lot closer to Hamilton on a regular basis.

VK: Looked close enough to Hamilton last year before the mid-season slump, and will have had more time to prepare this off-season. His best performances last year came at races with the softest tyre picks - so given Pirelli's new range, why couldn't he win it all?

GA: I expected a lot from him in 2017 and to be honest it never really came. Yes, he was at his best at the end of the season but being good some of the time just isn't enough to put a championship challenge together.

BA: Bottas was a genuine title contender for much of last season and the new Merc should be easier to set-up, which should aid his consistency. If the W09 is dominant, Bottas should beat the Ferraris and Red Bulls.

JR: The Finn will pick up the pieces when Hamilton has an off-weekend, but won't be consistent enough to mount a serious title challenge.

AC: I put him third last year and that's where he ended up, with three wins in his first year at Mercedes. He will be more consistently competitive this year and will definitely win races, but as last year he will eventually slip out of title contention.

MB: Some drivers are just destined to be the very-good-in-themselves team-mates to legends, and that's the status Bottas is surely going to have to settle into this year.

MJ: If the Merc is as fast as it appears, then Bottas will be able to comfortably race in Hamilton's slipstream. Doesn't have the magic factor to raise himself to superstar level though.

2nd: Max Verstappen

Top prediction: Champion (Gary Anderson, Matt Beer)

GA: It's his time. He has shown in the past he is the complete package: qualifying pace, race tactics, overtaking and wet weather ability. Given the tools I think he will have this year, he can do it.

MB: There's something very ominous about Verstappen's attitude, speed and absolute ability. If Red Bull can get 80% of the way there, he could snatch the title through sheer force of self-belief and then commence Schumacher-level dominance.

ES: He's a force of nature and looks to have the speed and determination to continue his rise - if the car (and crucially engine) are up to it.

BA: The Red Bull RB14 is bound to be an excellent car, but will the Renault engine be good enough to make it a title contender? Probably not, but I expect F1's most exciting driver to be a thorn in Vettel's side more often this year.

KC: A left-field choice! He cracked qualifying last year and comprehensively beat Ricciardo in the qualifying head to heads. A great racer and will just get better every year. The Red Bull looks closer to the pace at the start of this season.

JK: Still not quite the finished product. Expect more fireworks from Verstappen but the occasional error that prevents him from being as high up in the standings as his more seasoned team-mate Ricciardo.

PE: It would be fascinating to see Verstappen in a car that can match the Mercedes on a regular basis. Red Bull might have hit the ground running with its chassis, but the engine remains a question mark and there is only so much even a talent like Verstappen can do.

MJ: More wins on the horizon, but there is still a suspicion that he is just living in the moment and hasn't yet got the capability to mount a title challenge. That will come, but enjoy the excitement in the meantime.

KT: The Red Bull looks impressive and there should be days when Verstappen can challenge Mercedes. If the Renault engine also improves, Ferrari could struggle to keep up with Red Bull.

Champion: Lewis Hamilton

Top prediction: Champion (everyone else!)

KC: The absolute favourite going into the season. Drove superbly last season and seems to still be motivated for 2018. Oh, and the Mercedes is a cut above the rest.

JR: In the current era, Mercedes is unstoppable and Hamilton is driving better than ever. Starts as favourite for a fifth crown.

MJ: Mercedes has produced a car so good that it didn't even have to try in testing. Lewis is at the top of his game, and the goal of a fifth title, equalling Juan-Manel Fangio, was something that was on his radar late last year.

AC: We didn't see the true outright pace of Mercedes in testing, but we can be pretty sure that it will be there, and if it is more consistent than its predecessor the W09 could be unbeatable.

BA: Difficult to see past the reigning world champion making it five. Hamilton is driving better than ever, and Mercedes is unlikely to make the same mistakes it made last year.

ES: Impossible to bet against the combination of a team and driver at the top of their game.

GF: If Mercedes has avoided producing another 'diva' and its opponents haven't taken the step up they needed, this could be a stroll for Hamilton. Let's hope it's more interesting than that.

PE: Mercedes appears to have taken a step forward with a car that was already the class of the field last year and, if reliability stays as strong as it was in 2017, the British driver should be in a perfect position to clinch his fifth crown.

KT: The signs are that Mercedes has produced another pacesetter with the W09. Hamilton put in his most impressive season in 2017 and it's hard to see him as anything other than the man to beat again this year.

SM: If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. Hamilton looks like the favourite for the title, he's been driving like the favourite for the title for four years, and he's still talking like the favourite for the title. So he's probably the favourite for the title.

MB: Hamilton is the best he has ever been, his relative off-track serenity tempering the mental excesses that have sometimes got in the way of his talent. But a decade into his career, it's changing-of-the-guard time as Verstappen rises.

GA: It's easy to say it should be Hamilton, and in the end it probably will be. But just keeping up the momentum is no easy task and in a straight fight with Verstappen I would put my money on the latter.

Drivers' championship

Top 10 based on our predictions

Constructors' championship

Top five based on our predictions

Honourable mentions

Stoffel Vandoorne

KC: Vandoorne gets pushed to the background by virtue of being a team-mate to Fernando and a bit low key. I rate him very highly and his junior formula record should tell you that he is a seriously top quality driver.

Sergio Perez

GF: Perez has proven he can step up to the challenge of highly-rated team-mates in the past, and he has the potential to alter the steep upward trajectory of Ocon's career if he can keep him in check this year. I don't think he'll manage it, but that doesn't mean he's not capable of it.

Kevin Magnussen

ES: He's got ability and has turned in some outstanding drives, notably Mexico last year. But he's frustrating and needs to up his qualifying game and prove he can deliver consistently if he's to make good on the ability that is there.

Pierre Gasly

MJ: Look at his career up to F1: the guy is a proven talent in everything he has driven. If the step that Honda has made translates into the races, then he will shine.

Romain Grosjean

VK: Both Grosjean and team boss Gunther Steiner believe his long-lasting brake headaches are cured now. Couple that with a surprisingly mega pre-season for Haas, and the Frenchman could be in for a stellar campaign.

Fears for Williams, hope for Leclerc

KT: I fear for Williams this year. Even if the FW41 is decent, the improving challenges of McLaren and Renault, and the inexperience of drivers Lance Stroll and Sergey Sirotkin, could mean it falls to seventh or eighth in the constructors' championship.

Charles Leclerc will get the better of Sauber team-mate Marcus Ericsson across the season, but sadly it looks as though the C37 drivers will need some luck to get into the points. Either one could be the beneficiary of a crazy race.