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Feature

Is it now too easy to score on an F1 debut?

Stoffel Vandoorne joined the list of Formula 1 debut points-scorers in Bahrain. Is that still a feat to celebrate and a good omen, or too easy in modern F1? EDD STRAW analyses the historical statistics

There's a tendency for new achievements to be belittled and framed negatively within the context of what has happened before.

Take Stoffel Vandoorne finishing in the points on his grand prix debut in Bahrain, for example. Too easy nowadays, isn't it?

Well, maybe not. Tempting as it is to buy into what seems to be a fundamental human desire to look at everyone and everything in the past as better, it's worth taking a closer look at the history of points-scoring debutants to see how Vandoorne fits in.

First, some context. His achievement was both entirely expected and a genuine surprise depending on your perspective.

On the one hand, he always looked capable of hitting the ground running in F1. His class has been evident throughout his junior single-seater career and McLaren clearly sees him as a very worthy driver. In a more meritocratic F1 world, he would already have a full-time seat.

On the other, he had never driven the McLaren-Honda MP4-31 before (except in simulated form), had to jump in the car after a late summons from Japan, was driving for a team whose cars had achieved points finishes only six times in the past 40 attempts and all with only patchy mileage in any kind of grand prix machinery under his belt.

What is an indisputable fact is that his 10th place made Vandoorne the 64th driver to score on his debut in a world championship grand prix - including the five who achieved points in the series' inaugural race in 1950.

Below is a complete list of those who have achieved the debut-scoring feat, excluding the anomalous points-paying Indianapolis 500s of 1950-1960.

DRIVER                 YEAR  GRAND PRIX     POSITION
Nino Farina            1950  Great Britain     1
Luigi Fagioli          1950  Great Britain     2
Reg Parnell            1950  Great Britain     3
Yves Giraud-Cabantous  1950  Great Britain     4
Louis Rosier           1950  Great Britain     5
Alberto Ascari         1950  Monaco            2
Raymond Sommer         1950  Monaco            4
Felice Bonetto         1950  Switzerland       5
Peter Whitehead        1950  France            3
Dorino Serafini        1950  Italy             2
Jean Behra             1952  Switzerland       3
Ken Wharton            1952  Switzerland       4
Alan Brown             1952  Switzerland       5
Mike Hawthorn          1952  Belgium           4
Paul Frere             1952  Belgium           5
Eric Thompson          1952  Great Britain     5
Dennis Poore           1952  Great Britain     4
Oscar Galvez           1953  Argentina         5
Hermann Lang           1953  Switzerland       5
Karl Kling             1954  France            2
Cesare Perdisa         1955  Monaco            3
Olivier Gendebien      1956  Argentina         5
Gerino Gerini          1956  Argentina         4
Masten Gregory         1957  Monaco            3
Stuart Lewis-Evans     1957  Monaco            4
Innes Ireland          1959  Netherlands       4
Richie Ginther         1960  Monaco            6
Lucien Bianchi         1960  Belgium           6
Giancarlo Baghetti     1961  France            1
Neville Lederle        1962  South Africa      6
Ludovico Scarfiotti    1963  Netherlands       6
Peter Arundell         1964  Monaco            3
Jackie Stewart         1965  South Africa      6
Mike Parkes            1966  France            2
Jacky Ickx*            1967  Italy             6
Vic Elford             1968  France            4
Ignazio Giunti         1970  Belgium           4
Clay Regazzoni         1970  Netherlands       4
Reine Wisell           1970  USA               3
Mark Donohue           1971  Canada            3
Arturo Merzario        1972  Great Britain     6
George Follmer         1973  South Africa      6
Alain Prost            1980  Argentina         6
Johnny Herbert         1989  Brazil            4
Jean Alesi             1989  France            4
Eddie Irvine           1993  Japan             6
Jacques Villeneuve     1996  Australia         2
Pedro de la Rosa       1999  Australia         6
Kimi Raikkonen         2001  Australia         6
Mark Webber            2002  Australia         5
Timo Glock             2004  Canada            7
Vitantonio Liuzzi      2005  San Marino        8
Nico Rosberg           2006  Bahrain           7
Lewis Hamilton         2007  Australia         3
Sebastian Vettel       2007  USA               8
Sebastien Bourdais     2008  Australia         7
Sebastien Buemi        2009  Australia         7
Paul di Resta          2011  Australia         10
Kevin Magnussen        2014  Australia         2
Daniil Kvyat           2014  Australia         9
Felipe Nasr            2015  Australia         5
Carlos Sainz Jr        2015  Australia         9
Stoffel Vandoorne      2016  Bahrain           10

*Ickx was on the grid for two races before his F1 debut, competing in the Formula 2 races at the Nurburgring that ran as part of the grand prix itself in 1966 and '67 - these are not considered world championship grand prix starts.

NB Bruce McLaren finished fifth on his debut in a grand prix driving an F2 car and did not score points. As this was not a separate F2 race on the same grid, it is considered an official start.

It's fair to say points have been scored on debut with greater frequency in recent years. From 1974-2000, only six drivers did so. From 2001 to date, it has been achieved 15 times.

That coincides with a gradual increase in the number of cars rewarded with points - from six to eight in 2003, then up to 10 from 2010. That tends to suggest it is getting easier to achieve.

Looking purely at the ease of scoring, looking at percentage of classified finishers who get in the points is as good a metric as any. In short, it's your chance of being in the points just by dint of turning up and staying on the track. There has been a creeping increase in this in recent times as scoring systems have changed.

PERCENTAGE CHANCE OF SCORING BY FINISHING

PERIOD       SCORING SYSTEM  PERCENTAGE CHANCE
1950-1959      Top 5 + FL         49.20%
1960-2002      Top 6              48.80%
2003-2009      Top 8              52.30%
2010-present   Top 10             54.30%

In Bahrain, Vandoorne was one of the 58.8 per cent of drivers who were running at the end and made it into the points, so while slightly higher than the average still hardly a gift. Simply turning up and driving around wasn't enough.

By way of a counterpoint, when Alain Prost scored on his debut for McLaren back in 1980, there was only one car still running behind him - although this was still a strong drive by Prost from 12th on the grid in Argentina.

Perhaps the more significant comparison of those two drives is both Vandoorne and Prost outqualified experienced team-mates. In Vandoorne's case, Jenson Button, and in Prost's John Watson. The reality is both were quality drives, regardless of how many finished others behind them.

The argument that F1 is too easy for young drivers nowadays is also overly-simplistic. Young drivers are also far better prepared than they were 30 years ago.

Training regimes mean fitness is far higher, both for the full-time drivers and for the aspirants, so a driver with a professional approach from GP2 would be expected to be able to hack it.

And while the overall physical demands might not be as brutal as they once were (although they remain extreme - ever looked at how big F1 drivers' necks are?) the technical demands are enormous.

Beyond simply driving the car, there is the need to manage all kinds of engine settings - not easy for a rookie with radio communications reduced - and juggle the myriad demands of actually operating the machinery.

By contrast, a driver in the past will have jumped into a car that was far more familiar. Faster and more powerful, certainly, but still effectively just a bigger, faster version of what they were racing before.

So what does all this mean for the value of the achievement? I'd argue it's rare enough to be something that is genuinely celebrated, especially when achieved in the circumstances Vandoorne did it.

While not quite as remarkable as Johnny Herbert's fourth place for Benetton at Rio in 1989 just over six months after his potentially career-ending Formula 3000 crash at Brands Hatch, it's still a classy performance.

As for whether scoring on debut is a predictor of great things in grand prix racing, that's impossible to say. Among the 63 names on the list, the whole spectrum is covered from those who never started a grand prix again (for example, Eric Thompson) through to world champions (Prost, Jackie Stewart, Mike Hawthorn, Jacques Villeneuve, Lewis Hamilton, Sebastian Vettel).

But the fact there are plenty of seriously accomplished drivers on the list suggests a good start is promising.

The most significant thing is that we already have a good idea of how good Vandoorne is. Even if we have to wait until 2017 to see him racing an F1 car again, he's already provided evidence of his class. Given how nervous some teams seem to be about committing to drivers of that kind of ability without top-line results to back it up, don't underestimate the value of that.

For now, he will have to focus on what could prove to be a tricky season in Super Formula in Japan. The Honda engine has struggled against the Toyota for the past two seasons and he's up against a strong grid of experienced campaigners in the category.

Unlike last year, when he was told he not only had to win GP2 but to dominate, there are no expectations for his foray to Japan other than to drive and stay sharp.

And after that successful debut in Bahrain, next year will be the time when McLaren has to make its call on Vandoorne - put him in one of its cars, invest to place him with another team or just let go of him entirely.

Already, for this year, Renault showed some interest so Vandoorne was already on its radar. After Bahrain, Vandoorne is sure to be on plenty of teams' lists for next season.

Scoring in your first race is meaningless on its own. But when it's achieved by a driver of Vandoorne's class it answers a crucial question of whether they can hack it at the top level.

Vandoorne can, and given the importance of high-quality drivers to the appeal of F1 it's a shame there could be such a long wait before he races a grand prix car again.

If Vandoorne has the kind of F1 career he is capable of, we will look back at Bahrain 2016 as having one of the most significant 10th-place finishers in history.

Statistics by Joao Paulo Cunha and FORIX

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