Melbourne won't set the 2014 tone

There's a little bit of irony to the fact that Formula 1's most unpredictable of seasons may well deliver us a completely predictable outcome in Australia's opening round this weekend.

But even if Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg power the Silver Arrows in Melbourne to their first one-two since the 1955 Italian Grand Prix, don't believe for one second that the die is cast for an era of Red Bull F1 dominance to be followed by a Mercedes whitewash.

In fact, the one thing that no one must do after this weekend is write off new-era F1 as a lost cause, even if Australia does not deliver us a complete thriller with wheel-to-wheel battles from start to finish, and a race with strategic nuances to keep fans on the edges of their seats for two hours.

Indeed, it may well be the exact opposite.

The last Mercedes one-two came was in 1955, via Fangio and Taruffi © LAT

Teams may well be regimented in performance order, reliability fears are likely to produce conservative strategies, and uncertainty about the ebb-and-flow of the racing may lead to a lack of aggression on track.

Plus there is probably little anyone can do to stop that Mercedes steamroller, and no one is under any illusions about that.

From the statement of intent in making sure its car was the first out on the track at 9am on the opening day of testing at Jerez, through to the near 5000 kilometres of running it did before the chequered flag came out at the end of the final session in Bahrain, Mercedes has been singled out as everyone's tip for the top.

Yes, there may be some challenges ahead for the Brackley boys - and reliability is going to be a big talking point over these first few flyaways - but all the indications are that it will be Hamilton and Rosberg in the clear, with Williams duo Valtteri Bottas and Felipe Massa breathing down their necks and hoping that their reliability trump card pays off big time.

And should it pan out that way this weekend, with the biggest intrigue being Red Bull's competitiveness at the start of the campaign, is that reason to switch off and give up on the new 2014 rules as a lost cause? Of course not.

Anyone who has followed F1 over recent years knows that it's rare for a performance advantage eked out at the start of the season to stay in place until the very end of the campaign.

Yes it can happen, most notably when regulations are stable and there's little scope to find areas in the regulations that deliver major performance benefits.

A disrupted pre-season has hit the teams' collective preparations © XPB

But with a new rules cycle just beginning, the rate of the teams' current development is pretty aggressive, which means that form could vary dramatically.

If the teams were climbing Mount Everest, they wouldn't even have packed for base camp yet.

Teams' knowledge of how the races will actually pan out is zero. No one knows if it's better to have a fast-and-thirsty car or a slower-and-more-economical one. Do you want the tortoise or the hare?

And what's good for winning in Melbourne may not necessarily be good for victory in the tight confines of Monaco, the swoops of Silverstone or the flat-out blasts of Monza.

It also doesn't take into account the fact that Red Bull's rivals are very wary about what Milton Keynes has produced, aside from the issues it has with engine supplier Renault.

Data from testing shows the RB10 is phenomenally strong in corners, with enough downforce to have left its opposition with furrowed brows.

F1 remains completely wide open this year, and the spectacle for the fans is going to evolve as quickly as the cars. So for the doubters out there: give it time, and don't judge the sport on the first race.

F1 in 2014 is going to be great.