The truth behind Kvyat's STR drive

"We are brave...we make decisions."

So said Helmut Marko of Red Bull in an interview with AUTOSPORT earlier this year. And as far as brave decisions go, promoting 19-year-old Daniil Kvyat to a Toro Rosso seat is right up there.

The Russian has just 22 laps under his belt in a Formula 1 car, his running restricted by spinning into the gravel during his outing at the Silverstone young driver test. He has never raced beyond Formula 3/GP3 level and with a massive rule change facing grand prix racing in 2014, there will not be much time during pre-season testing for him to bed in.

But none of this is a compelling reason to conclude that Red Bull has necessarily got it wrong. Provided, of course, it gives Kvyat long enough at STR to mature. Realistically, given the lack of testing, that probably means three full seasons. And allowances have to be made for his youth. Without question, in the short-term, the results will not be as good as Antonio Felix da Costa's would in F1.

But Toro Rosso's mandate is, after all, to develop young drivers. The seat vacated by Daniel Ricciardo was always destined for one of its junior programme members, meaning realistically it was between Antonio Felix da Costa, Carlos Sainz Jr and Kvyat.

Kvyat's running in F1 machinery was restricted by this spin © LAT

Da Costa was the short-odds favourite heading into the season. His stellar form after being promoted to Formula Renault 3.5 last year, finishing just 23 points - less than a win's worth - behind champion Robin Frijns even though he missed the opening five races, meant he was expected to claim the title this year, especially after winning the Macau Grand Prix as well. But things have not gone to plan in 2013.

"If you had asked me last year at this time, I would have said 100 per cent da Costa," said Marko in September. "But we will carefully watch it..."

At that point, da Costa was fifth in the championship, 68 points behind McLaren junior Kevin Magnussen. In the six races that followed, he won twice and climbed to third in the standings. Decent, but not extraordinary, especially as he ended up 102 points off Magnussen and one of his wins came only thanks to the Dane's exclusion at Paul Ricard.

Then again, at the Hungaroring, he beat both Magnussen and Stoffel Vandoorne in a straight fight. In fact, on the two occasions when the top three in the championship went head-to-head on track, da Costa prevailed both there and at Monza. Clearly, he hadn't simply become a worse driver overnight.

While his high points were stellar, the Portuguese never built serious momentum. Events outside of his control in two of the first three races, a blowout while fighting for victory at Monza and running dry in qualifying at Aragon, relegating him to the back of the grid, put him on the back foot immediately.

Fundamentally, the dynamic of his season was transformed. He was playing catch-up and as history shows, that's a difficult game to win. To add insult to injury, his performance was compromised in last weekend's Barcelona finale thanks to assembly errors.

But it would be wrong to excuse da Costa from all responsibility, and to his credit the man himself has made no effort to do so. At times, he pushed too hard while trying to close the gap. He admitted to being disappointed with set-up mistakes in Monaco and his own driving during a difficult weekend at Spa.

Da Costa looked like favourite for the seat

He spent a significant amount of time with Marko at the Austrian round at Red Bull's own Spielberg circuit and, while the man who would be deciding his destiny was convinced that da Costa's season had not been as bad as it appeared, an engine issue in race one and an electrical problem that left him stranded on the grid in the second served only to underscore that.

But still Marko had legitimate concerns. He would not accept it was all down to the car. This was not unreasonable, because it was the same Arden squad that da Costa had excelled in last year even though he had more than his fair share of problems over the season.

He was impressed by da Costa's attitude, the work ethic he exhibited, and it was clear that what happened in the final three rounds of the championship would be decisive. But despite the two victories, it wasn't enough.

That does not mean Red Bull was right to discard him, it is merely the background to the decision. There is no doubt da Costa has serious potential and his relationship with the energy drinks giant might not necessarily be over. But come the end of the season, Marko was wavering about da Costa.

"If we see a weakness which is not curable, yes, we stop," was the Austrian's explanation of a driver scheme that has been criticised as harsh over the years. In da Costa's case it's arguably less a case of seeing an explicit weakness as an absence of the strength needed to close the deal and secure a drive that was there for the taking.

After all, nobody seriously doubts da Costa would have been the one being hailed on Red Bull's Servus TV channel last night had he won the title.

All of which opened the door to Kvyat. Timing is everything in motorsport and just as da Costa's was bad given he would surely have been promoted were there an F1 vacancy at the start of this season, Kvyat's was excellent.

He is arguably the favourite for GP3 honours despite heading into the final double-header seven points behind Facu Regalia, and has impressed with his speed in F3. Mutterings in Red Bull circles in recent months have hinted that of its three top juniors, Kvyat was increasingly the one seen to have the best potential.

Kvyat is still fighting for the GP3 title

Even so, this was a tough call for Red Bull. The decision was made only recently, with both Kvyat and da Costa - ironically, they are flatmates - informed of the decision not long before the best of the world found out.

Inevitably, there are question marks over whether Kvyat's nationality, with the Russian GP coming up, played a decisive role.

Russia is a huge market for Red Bull to exploit. As Mark Gallagher, a man who knows more about the commercial side of motorsport than most, pointed out on Twitter in the wake of the announcement the Russian soft drinks market, including sports and energy drinks, was worth $14.5 billion in 2011. Then there are the well-sourced rumours that a Russian bank has put up some serious cash to help Kvyat secure the drive.

But while commercial considerations, as they always are, were a factor, they were not the be all and end all. After all, some drivers with good records promising vast sums of money have knocked on Red Bull's door in recent months and been emphatically rejected. What's more, Red Bull has invested in Kvyat's career, meaning Marko has seen very real potential.

It would be incorrect simply to brand him a pay driver even if some Russian backing does turn up on the car. After all, there likely would have been some Portuguese companies represented had da Costa landed the drive (provided anyone found any money to spend in the country, that is...)

The financial side perhaps tipped the balance, but at the heart of this decision are two factors: Da Costa was, rightly or wrongly, seen not to have delivered this season. Kvyat was seen to have excelled.

It's a results-based business and da Costa's results weren't perceived to be good enough. Personally, I would have liked to see da Costa get the chance because ever since his impressive performance for Force India in the 2010 young driver test, it has been clear he has been a driver to watch.

Bad seasons - and in da Costa's case bad is a relative term - can often be the making of a driver and it would have been fascinating to see how he developed in 2014. But the question is, did Marko see a weakness he considered unsolvable? And if so, was he correct?

Da Costa paid the price for his troubled FR3.5 season © LAT

After all, had da Costa been promoted, Kvyat's time would have come, maybe another year down the line. That would have allowed da Costa the chance to show he can fulfil his prodigious potential as well as ensuring Kvyat was better prepared for the step up. This would also have allowed Red Bull to work out how much of the underachievement in 2013 was down to driver and how much to team in da Costa's case.

But that does not mean that it's fair to lambast Red Bull for its decision. The rhetoric that it has ruined so many drivers careers is nonsensical.

Yes, Marko is not afraid to cut off drivers he sees as not progressing if they show, in his opinion, an unsolvable weakness, but a lot of effort went into assessing da Costa over the course of the year and the conclusion was that he had not made an emphatic case for promotion.

Might Red Bull have made the wrong decision? Possibly. Was it swayed by commercial consideration? Yes. Would Kvyat have benefitted from a season spent at Formula Renault 3.5 level? Certainly. Is da Costa a driver with genuine F1 potential? No doubt.

But the bottom line is that it was da Costa's perceived underachievement, even once bad luck had been taken into account, that opened the door to Kvyat. The door would have remained resolutely closed irrespective of any commercial considerations had da Costa delivered to Red Bull's satisfaction. Leave the door open in motor racing and you will be vulnerable, on and off track. It's a cut-throat business.

As for Kvyat, he has made a big impression on Red Bull over the past season and some key players had started to regard him as the one with the biggest potential. He will be given time in F1, but every single race weekend his performances, attitude and development will be under intense scrutiny. And if he does not develop as expected, like da Costa he will eventually be passed over.

Red Bull is not in the business of philanthropy, much as it might like to give the impression it is. In Kvyat, it has a driver that is genuinely regarded as potentially the best of the current junior roster and who can also bring commercial benefits. Given the circumstances, many would have made the same decision.

That's just the nature of elite sport. It is harsh. Damned harsh.