Monza a must-win for Ferrari

With seven races remaining, it seems counter-intuitive to put undue emphasis on the Italian Grand Prix. After all, winning it is worth the same 25 points the other six offer.

But for Fernando Alonso, it is the definition of a must-win. His second place at Spa kept him just about within sight of Sebastian Vettel, but with Ferrari traditionally producing a strong low-downforce package for Monza, this is arguably the one grand prix remaining on the calendar that the Spaniard can be confident of a shot at winning in a straightforward race.

Last year, it really was the one that got away. Alonso was adamant he would have been on pole position had an anti-roll bar problem not ruined his qualifying attempt in Q3. He came through to third, but it might have been so much better had he started in the right place.

The ructions between Ferrari and Alonso have been well publicised. For all his claims that it was a misunderstanding on Luca di Montezemolo's part that led Ferrari's president to take the unprecedented action of criticising his star driver in a statement issued through the Scuderia's press office, there are clearly problems.

A home win is no panacea, but it would give a vital boost to a team at a time when the going is proving to be very tough.

A victory at Monza is largely meaningless in terms of drawing conclusions about the car's performance heading into the six races that follow. But there were some encouraging signs at Spa two weeks ago - albeit only minor ones - suggesting that with a win in Italy, Alonso might at least have the machinery to hang on in there in the drivers' championship battle even if taking the fight to Vettel in future races will be tough.

The flipside is that a bad weekend could effectively knock him out of serious contention, cause morale to plummet and get the Italian press firmly on Ferrari's back.

Avoiding that is likely an even stronger motivation than wanting to keep Alonso's championship hopes alive.

Hamilton has reason to be confident for Monza © LAT

HAMILTON IN THE HUNT

While Lewis Hamilton took pole and finished third in Belgium, it was not a particularly encouraging weekend for Mercedes during a spell when it looks the most credible threat to Red Bull.

That remains the case and the combination of low downforce and the strengths of the Mercedes engine should mean that Hamilton and team-mate Nico Rosberg are in the hunt at Monza.

While not a must-win for the German marque in the same way that it is for Ferrari, it's certainly an opportunity for Hamilton to carve into the 58-point gap to Vettel that, if it's not closed down dramatically, will very soon be insurmountable.

With such a deficit, Hamilton has to be considered a threat given the fundamental pace of the car, but he needs to start a run of finishing ahead of Vettel.

As for Rosberg, he remains a formidable competitor. But if Mercedes is serious about getting into the hunt for the drivers' title, it might need to employ team orders.

If not, the two are close enough in the constructors' championship to make a good fight of it whatever order they're in.

Lotus is pinning victory hopes on long-wheelbase E21 © LAT

LOTUS ROLLS THE DICE

Lotus will try at least one of its cars in long-wheelbase specification during Friday practice at Monza.

Moving the front wheels forward by around 100mm was initially motivated by the vehicle dynamics department, which predicted a handling gain, but it's also yielded a small aerodynamic improvement that might give Lotus the extra few tenths it needs, particularly in qualifying trim, to get seriously into the hunt for wins again.

Realistically, Kimi Raikkonen's retirement at Spa (his first in a grand prix since Germany 2009!) killed off the last vestiges of hope for a drivers' championship assault, but a strong finish to the season will help the squad contend for third place in the teams' points race.

What's more, Lotus will also be hoping the wheelbase change yields an instant gain to boost its chances of retaining prize asset Raikkonen.

Whatever happens, the Monza circuit configuration doesn't lend itself to the Lotus E21. Instead, the promise the car shows in long-wheelbase trim will be the real story of the weekend.

If it goes well, things are looking up for the rest of the year, and perhaps even beyond.

Victory may elude Vettel and Red Bull this weekend © XPB

CAN VETTEL BE STOPPED?

On paper, this is not a race that Vettel and Red Bull will be hotly tipped to win. But then again, the same was said about Spa - and look how that turned out.

There are compelling reasons why Monza is a circuit where Vettel would probably sign on the dotted line for a solid third place right now. Then again, this is a driver who won the 2011 race via a stunning on-the-grass pass on Alonso while driving a car that was at the bottom of the terminal-velocity pecking order.

The bottom line is he cannot be counted out. But this is most likely a grand prix to be endured rather than enjoyed for Red Bull. A good, solid points haul would represent a good weekend's work.

And if Red Bull and Vettel repeat their victory of 2011, the rest might as well pack up and go home as far as the championship is concerned.

Monza represents Button's best shot at a podium © LAT

McLAREN'S PODIUM HOPES

Team principal Martin Whitmarsh has set his sights on fighting for podiums, which sporting director Sam Michael rightly reckons will be tough. But given that the McLaren is, while vastly improved, still not one of the strongest cars, low-downforce Monza is likely to be the team's best opportunity to pull it off in a dry race.

Jenson Button finished a decent sixth at Spa, where his pace was pretty good without being stellar. If the car is fractionally better at Monza, and McLaren has luck on its side, it might be in a position to nick a podium.

A victory on the weekend when the team celebrates its 50th anniversary is a huge longshot, but it would be appropriate if Button or Sergio Perez can clamber onto the podium to commemorate this landmark.

Ricciardo will be under the microscope now his Red Bull deal is sorted © XPB

ALL EYES ON RICCIARDO

You might argue that, having secured promotion to Red Bull's A-team next year, Daniel Ricciardo can relax and enjoy the next seven races. But it's unlikely to go that way.

The Australian will be under intense scrutiny from the watching world, particularly those who have ignored the occasional startling performances that have marked him out as having the ingredients to do well next season.

A repeat of Vettel's 2008 victory is only half-a-notch down from impossible on the credibility scale, but he will be hoping to nail a good, strong Q3 performance on Saturday and follow it up with a few points.

It will be the first sign of how he deals with the intense pressure of expectation that his promotion brings.

And for those who haven't been paying much attention, it will be well worth taking a closer look at Ricciardo over the next seven weekends. His high-points have been seriously impressive.

Hulkenberg needs a good result to keep him on the radar of big teams © LAT

THE BATTLE TO IMPRESS

While Ricciardo has his future settled, many drivers haven't. The midfield is riddled with drivers with aspirations either to graduate to a big-time ride, consolidate their position in their existing team or catch the eye of another squad.

Among those needing a strong performance will be Sauber pairing Nico Hulkenberg and Esteban Gutierrez.

The former is on the radar of several bigger teams - albeit not as first choice given the way the market is currently shaped - while the latter needs to build on his impressive race drive at Spa as he fights to extend a tenure in F1 that, right now, is very much under threat.

At Force India, both Paul di Resta and Adrian Sutil will be hoping the team recaptures its earlier form to allow them to impress, while Jean-Eric Vergne at Toro Rosso just needs to ensure he responds well seeing to seeing his team-mate earn promotion to ensure he stays on next year. Right now, he is 99.9 per cent certain to stay, but has yet to be confirmed.