Abu Dhabi Preview: The key to beating Vettel

After four wins on the bounce, the question on everybody's lips is who can beat Sebastian Vettel?

The obvious answer is team-mate Mark Webber, but both McLaren and Ferrari have been talking up their chances. All the signs are that their optimism will be misplaced at Yas Marina, but if they are to have any chance of beating Vettel, as opposed to picking up the pieces if he hits trouble, qualifying will be the crucial battleground.

On the evidence of the past few races, Red Bull's qualifying pace is stronger than what it can display in races relative to the rest, although to that statement must be added the caveat that we haven't seen Vettel pushed to the limit on a Sunday recently.

McLaren sporting director Sam Michael argued after the Indian Grand Prix that Red Bull's dominance was track dependent.

While that claim seems a little on the optimistic side, there is some truth in it...

Red Bull's margin of qualifying dominance at Suzuka was 0.451 seconds. That's at the top end of the spectrum for performance being defined by downforce. In the subsequent qualifying sessions at Yeongam and Buddh, the margins were 0.227s and 0.261s respectively.

To put it simply, the faster the average lap speed, the greater the one-lap advantage of the Red Bulls, as shown by the figures below.

Given that Yas Marina is slower than all three circuits, with the average speed for Vettel's pole position lap last year at 126.341mph, the rest might hope to be fractionally closer even though the factors influencing the margin are far more varied than mere average speed.

Track Margin Average speed
Japan: Av speed - 142.998mph, Advantage - 0.948 per cent
Korea: Av speed - 129.166mph, Advantage - 0.233 per cent
India: Av speed - 134.426mph, Advantage - 0.306 per cent

So let's be generous and say that previous form suggests that the gap between Red Bull and the rest in qualifying trim will be around the 0.2s mark, perhaps just under.

Certainly, the preponderance of second-gear corners at Yas Marina offers a different test to Red Bull than the previous three circuits so it's possible that the margin could be reduced. Equally, Red Bull might simply be able to set the car up to focus on these corners and be further ahead. After all, it was a seriously quick car in the slow final sector during the recent Korean Grand Prix.

The one variable we also have to consider is upgrades. Both McLaren and Ferrari have new parts to throw at the car, as will Red Bull. It would be asking a hell of a lot for a 0.2s swing in either's favour relative to Red Bull, but it's possible that one or both could close up a little.

Then you have to factor in the job done in qualifying. Vettel has had a few wobbly moments on Saturdays during the past four events. He should have done better in both Singapore and Korea and went off during his first Q3 run in India, so there is precedent.

This, most likely, will be the key factor. For a raw performance advantage, a couple of tenths is a reasonably narrow margin and a mistake at the key moment or even being caught out by temperature change could throw a curveball.

If this doesn't happen and the Abu Dhabi GP serves up another front row lockout for Red Bull, history would suggest that it means game over. For while the race has been won only once from pole, Lewis Hamilton would have converted his top spot in 2009 to victory, as would Vettel in 2011, had they not hit problems.

Passing is incredibly difficult at Yas Marina, in F1 machinery at least. In recent races, there have been signs that Red Bull can be challenged in race conditions, but that is all based on track position. And the only way to guarantee an advantageous track position is to do better in qualifying. In spite of the challengers being within striking distance of Red Bull, if Vettel does his job on Saturday, the rest will have no chance.

As Alonso said in India, he's racing against Adrian Newey. Red Bull has the most downforce and downforce remains king, even at slower circuits like Yas Marina.

Weather

Key Abu Dhabi GP stats

• Honours in the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix have so far been split exclusively between Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel. Hamilton was leading in 2009 only for brake failure to hand Vettel the victory, before the German triumphed again one year later to seal his first world championship crown. He was on pole for last year's race but punctured at the first turn, ceding the lead, and ultimately the win, to Hamilton.

• Vettel comes into this weekend's grand prix chasing his fifth straight win, a feat only five drivers have achieved in F1 history: Alberto Ascari, Michael Schumacher (both of whom won seven in a row), Jack Brabham, Jim Clark and Nigel Mansell.

• As Vettel chases history, his Red Bull stablemate Mark Webber has never started on the front-row at Yas Marina and has always been beaten by his team-mate in qualifying.

• Jenson Button is the only driver to have scored a podium in all three Abu Dhabi Grands Prix. He has always finished third, albeit from different grid slots - he started fifth, fourth and third over the respective years.

• Fernando Alonso was second last year, but that represents the only podium Ferrari has scored in the Abu Dhabi GP. More famously Alonso lost the title in 2010 when he fell behind Renault's Vitaly Petrov during the pitstops. Like Webber, Alonso has never started on the front row.

• Michael Schumacher finished seventh in last year's race, while two years ago his accident with Vitantonio Liuzzi triggered the safety car period that ultimately cost Alonso the title.

• Nico Rosberg is one of the four drivers who has run every lap of every race held in the UAE, the others being Alonso, Webber and Button. His best result here is a fourth, scored back in 2010.

• Kimi Raikkonen has raced here back in 2009, but with Ferrari having already abandoned development of its car he was only able to qualify 11th and finish the race in 12th.

• Of every team, McLaren has recorded the highest number of podium finishes in the Abu Dhabi GP - four. The squad had both its drivers finish in the top three in 2010 and 2011

• Mercedes also has a good record: its drivers have always qualified in the top 10 and have finished in the points three times out of four starts. Only Schumacher in 2010 wasn't able to score points due to an accident. The team comes into this weekend's grand prix however having not scored for three races.

Famous (Three) Abu Dhabi Grands Prix

Honours have been shared between Red Bull and McLaren - and Vettel and Hamilton - over the past three editions of the race. We cast our eye back to how the past three grands prix on the Yas Marina circuit have panned out.

2009 - Vettel leads Red Bull 1-2

Vettel led Webber home in a Red Bull 1-2, with the team completing a dominant end to the season by claiming victory in the inaugural race.

Its cause was aided considerably by trouble for poleman Hamilton, however. The outgoing champion had dominated practice and qualifying, and maintained his advantage at the start of the race. He was, however, unable to break free of either the Red Bulls or the Brawns, even before his team warned him of a right-rear brake issue that would ultimately force his retirement.

With Vettel unopposed, Webber came under heavy late pressure from a charging Jenson Button. A 12s advantage was steadily eroded and with six laps to go Button was on Webber's tail. On the final tour Button managed to get in Webber's tow down the back straight, but was forced to the outside. He attacked again three turns later but Webber was brave on the brakes and refused to cede the racing line, allowing him to hang onto second. Button had to settle for third, only his second rostrum in the second half of the season.

The Brawn driver's team-mate Rubens Barrichello was next up in fourth. The Brazilian had fallen behind Button on the opening lap after losing a chunk of front wing following a scrape with Webber, and then had to work hard to fend off the BMW Sauber of Nick Heidfeld in the latter stages.

Kamui Kobayashi in the first Toyota meanwhile came home sixth, having managed to get ahead of Button during the first round of stops (Kobayashi was one-stopping). When he did pit however he struggled on heavy fuel load, and dropped down the order as a result.

2010 - Vettel wins race - and championship

Vettel became F1's youngest champion by claiming victory in a season finale in which his two main rivals struggled.

The then 23-year-old German trailed Alonso by 15 points heading into the race, effectively meaning he had to win to stand any chance of securing the title. He did just that, leading comfortably from the front for almost the entirety of the race.

It was what happened behind that shaped the destination of the championship. Alonso needed only to finish in the top four to win, and he was doing just that - settling into fourth behind Vettel, Hamilton and Button - when the race turned on the first round of stops.

Webber, on points at least Alonso's closest rival, pitted to discard his first set of tyres, on which he had been falling back from Alonso. Ferrari tried to cover the Australian by pitting Felipe Massa, but when the Brazilian came out behind the Red Bull, and then Webber gained 0.8s on Alonso in a single lap, it made the call to bring the Spaniard in.

That failed to account for Rosberg and Petrov, both of whom had pitted under an early caution caused when Schumacher and Liuzzi collided. Alonso emerged back ahead of Webber, but nowhere near the fourth-place he needed to deny Vettel.

In one fell swoop, Alonso's chances were ruined. Unable to find or fight a way past Petrov, he ended up being jumped also by Robert Kubica's BMW Sauber and came home seventh. It was not enough; Vettel was champion.

2011 - Hamilton denies Alonso

Hamilton ended a four-month victory drought for McLaren with a dominant display in 2011 - although, in a mirror opposite of the 2009 race, his success owed much to misfortune for Vettel.

The recently-crowned double world champion retired on the first lap due to damage from a puncture, ended a sequence of five victories - and one third - in the previous six races.

Vettel's early exit from the front of the field elevated Hamilton into a lead he would never surrender, despite heavy pressure from Alonso. The Spaniard had jumped Webber and Button at the start and took up the chase of Hamilton, the pair separated by barely 1s for much of the race.

In the final stint however Hamilton began easing clear, finally winning by a more comfortable 8s margin.

Webber's challenge for third had been hit when he lost time to a stubborn wheel on his first stop, prompting a switch onto a three-stop strategy which included pitting for hards on the last lap. It wasn't enough to deny Button the final rostrum step, but it was enough to move back past Massa and into fourth - the Brazilian having dented his chances of a top four when he span with six laps of the race to run.

From the forum

We don't have to wait long for Abu Dhabi but how much is there to look forward to? To be honest the track specs look bad for Ferrari. Slow and quite like Monaco/Singapore, I think Ferrari really need some working upgrades to challenge here. Hamilton has been good here, so hopefully he can keep Vettel honest.
SamH123

It's sad if you are not a fan of one of [Alonso or Vettel]. The races became more predictable as well. It seems ages ago that Maldonado and Rosberg could win races. Actually, it's more or less back to the level we had in F1 in most years.
apoka

Lots of disgruntled Hamilton fans saying it is all the car of Vettel. Truth is only Vettel has won WDCs in that car, not his team-mate, and his team-mate has not produced that kind of dominant performance in that car this year. Even then, Red Bull has looked this good only since Suzuka. That is what 3 races? McLaren similarly looked great the previous few races, but they did not make it count. (3 consecutive wins, was it? Hungary, Belgium, Monza?) Their cars had reliability problems, but their drivers also messed up the set-up, one or the other was constantly qualifying behind when the car was a beast. It was all a wasted opportunity. McLaren team and drivers wasted their opportunity. Vettel and Red Bull are not. This particular stretch is Red Bull's - the past 3 races, and since Abu Dhabi is next, it is all crying-a-river for their favourite drivers.
SpaMaster

*Key stats supplied by FORIX collaborator Michele Merlino.

We want to hear from you!

Let us know what you would like to see from us in the future.

Take our survey

- The Autosport.com Team

Read and post comments