What's got VW interested in F1 again?

To headline scanners it was simply a case of yet another motor manufacturer seeking cheap black ink by linking its name to the world's largest continuous sporting audience, and thus not worth devoting more than a paragraph or two to. To those in the Formula 1 loop, however, the admission by Wolfgang Durheimer - of whom more later - that he would shortly be recommending to his Volkswagen bosses that the company enter F1 sooner rather than later ranks among the significant announcements made in the past 12 months.

To those scanners, VW is a brand, a purveyor of quality, with Teutonically-engineered but rather mundane family cars whose roots lie in the pre-WWII Beetle; to students of the motor industry, Volkswagen is a massive industrial automotive group whose sales in 2011 topped 8.15million units - via no less than 10 automotive brands, and up 14 per cent over 2010 despite the global economic crisis - to provisionally take the company to the world number 1 car slot, ahead of (a revitalised) General Motors (and beleaguered) Toyota. (Note: sales exclude Suzuki, in which the group holds 21 per cent.)

"I will shortly be recommending to the [Volkswagen Group] board that we expand our motorsport activities beyond our current series," Durheimer told Wirschafts Woche, Germany's equivalent of The Economist. "Measured against our projected sales in America, Asia and the Middle East we do not have sufficient motorsport representation [there], and in my opinion that should be remedied," he added, before alluding to Formula 1.

"[Formula 1]," he continued, "dominates the motorsport landscape in Europe and Asia," before concluding with what many in F1 well know, namely that F1 is way under the North American radar. "There we need to look at IndyCar and NASCAR."

Recent media reports have erroneously labelled the rather flamboyant Durheimer, who has a penchant for double-breasted suits, cufflinks, gaudy pocket squares and orange neck ties, as VW's 'Motorsport Manager', but that is to sell the 53-year-old short.

Durheimer's words make a VW F1 entry seem close

Well short: Yes, the former Porsche research and development director, who feels comfortable piloting Bugatti Veyrons at 220mph, holds overall responsibility for VW's motorsport programme (for example the F3 engine programme and Polo R WRC), but, if Scania or MAN chose to go truck racing or SEAT entered the Andros Trophy ice-racing series, Durheimer's is the signature that would endorse such campaigns.

Who carries the ultimate can for Audi's ultra-successful Le Mans programme, or the title-winning four-ringed DTM assault? VW's World Rally championship programme - which kicks off (very) earnestly in 2013 - or Skoda's Intercontinental Rally challenge entries? Porsche's decision to return to La Sarthe and take on the world's best in the 24 Hour classic that it once made its very own? For Lamborghini's competition department, SEAT's World Touring Car exploits or, for that matter, the signing off of any motorsport programme involving any of the Group's 11 brands?

Mr WD himself, that's who, and he has these responsibilities in addition to his dual 'day jobs' as CEO of Bentley Motors and Bugatti, to which positions he was elevated after a 14-career at Porsche after VWG moved in on the sportscar maker with which it has been intertwined for the past six decades. There the graduate engineer oversaw, among other products, the development of products such as Carrera GT, Cayenne, Cayman and Panamera, and was further instrumental in the Stuttgart firm's decision to enter the American Le Mans Series with Penske.

Saliently, before accepting his beat in the Stuttgart suburb of Zuffenhausen he spent 12 years at BMW, clawing his way up the Bavarian food chain via both two and four-wheeled projects, including stints on BMW's Dakar campaigns.

In short, to draw comparisons with Mercedes or BMW, Durheimer should be equated not to Mercedes's Norbert Haug or the now-retired Mario Theissen (nor even Jens Marquart, Theissen's replacement) at BMW, but their respective bosses. Twice removed. No fool then, Mr Durheimer, and obviously a man with all ears of the full VW Group supervisory board, and therefore to be taken ultra seriously whenever comments are officially attributed to him.

Intriguingly, when Durheimer shared his strategy with Wirtschafts Woche he was seemingly not pressed on which brand would be prime candidate to carry the Group's motorsport halo, nor, significantly, did he volunteer one - and it is likely this omission led many to assume it would be the blue VW roundel that would enter Formula 1 should the board approve his recommendation.

Nor did he directly mention a timeframe, although subsequently two dates have been bandied about, namely 2014 or 2018. Both make utmost sense on a timeline basis, particularly if, as he suggested, VW Group initially came into the sport as engine supplier before entering in its own right after acquiring an existing team (likely Toro Rosso, already partnered by VW as road car supplier, and believed to be up for sale). Thus VW would likely enter F1 not in one or the other season, but both...

Audi is the VW Group's technology leader, so is the most likely F1 entrant © LAT

However, the question of VW Group entering F1 has been bandied about for almost two years now, having first been alluded to in September by Durheimer's then-boss at Porsche, Michael Mauer. At the time this column suggested that Audi, not Porsche, would be the ideal brand to carry the Group into F1, and the passing of time has, if anything, underscored that finding.

Given the four manufacturers presently in the sport - FIAT/Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes-Benz and Renault - in various capacities, Audi, as a marketing-led technological innovator - one that has not only successfully plugged every market niche, but created new ones to fill, too - is the only brand with the product range required to take on all four marques currently represented on the grid. And, should additional manufacturers be attracted to the sport (once it sorts its commercial issues), then Audi has road products to put up against those, too.

For proof hereof consider first that since that October 2010 Weekly Grapevine column Audi has added the A1 and A3 ranges, which compete directly with Renault's eponymous cars and the related Infiniti range (whose branding is now carried by Red Bull Racing), that its medium and luxury offerings are pitched directly at Mercedes - and Audi's RS line at AMG - and that the mid-engined R8 is making massive inroads into Ferrari/McLaren territory.

In fact, for substantiation of that statement, look no further than the opening paragraph of the lead feature in this week's Autocar. Referring to the new-for-2014 (note date) R8 road car, AUTOSPORT's sister publication writes:

Audi plans to catapult its second-generation R8 firmly into the thick end of the supercar ranks alongside competition from Ferrari, Lamborghini [Audi's sister brand which provides much of the R8's hardware] and Porsche [another in-house brand]. In its bid, the new R8 will bring together some of Audi's most advanced construction techniques [including a patented resin used to bond aluminium to composites], driveline engineering, aerodynamics and electronics.

Further in the feature Autocar states that the 5.2-litre, 580bhp, V10-engined R8 GT will be pitched directly against Ferrari's upcoming 458 Scuderia and Porsche's 911 GT3. McLaren's 592bhp MP4-12C does not rate a mention, nor, for that matter, does the AMG-built Mercedes SLS (563bhp) as deployed in F1 as the safety car. It is further worth noting that the R8 is powered by a choice of V10 and V8 units - as specified by F1 from 1998 to 2005, and 2006 to date respectively - while the RS6 and S8 models run V10s, and that the sticker price of the current V10 R8 is about 60 per cent that of the cars listed above...

The R8 road car's new version will lock horns with Ferrari and Porsche

Back, though, to the timeline: The dates of 2014 and 2018 are significant for regulatory and commercial reasons. For 2014 the sport will adopt its 'green' 1600cc turbocharged power units, meaning all engine suppliers start with a clean slate. Said regulatory framework was thrashed out after a series of Engine Working Group meetings, to which VWG sent a representative. Introduction was later postponed to the start of 2014, thus putting F1 out of step with the current Concorde Agreement, which expires at the end of 2012 and is currently the subject of much speculation/negotiation.

Although the regulations specify V6 units rather than the 'in-line four' architecture originally agreed for F1's 'new dawn', this, if anything, plays straight into Audi's hands, for engines of that configuration power its performance S4 and premium diesel products.

Engine companies are not bound by the Concorde Agreement - nor, at this point, by any Resource Restriction Agreement - thus leaving the door open for VWG to enter at any point as supplier to an existing team. It obviously makes no sense for the company to produce a V8 for 2013 only, but it could enter the sport at any point after 2014 - so why not in that season, when all suppliers are likely to have teething issues?

Another benefit of a 2014 entry is that VWG would have two full years in which to prepare and ramp up, during which time existing suppliers will be both financially and operationally challenged through mounting V8 campaigns while developing their new V6s.

Concorde Agreements generally run in five-year blocks - bar the last one, which lasted a decade after commercial rights holder Bernie Ecclestone was particularly keen to lock teams into long-term deals after acquiring the rights for a relative pittance via his mate of over 20 years, then-FIA president Max Mosley. It is expected the 2013 agreement will expire at the end of 2017, when some form of succession planning and transparency should be in place, particularly given that Ecclestone is now 81.

Corporates abhor murky governance, with such style regularly forwarded by Ford, Honda, BMW and Toyota as (one of) the reasons for their mass exoduses from the sport - and advanced in the past by the likes of VWG for giving F1 a wide berth while embracing such as Le Mans.

In addition it is likely teams will by then be on an 80 per cent joint share of revenues (up both from the present 50 per cent and well up on the 23 per cent paid out by Ecclestone between 1998 and 2007). In addition, the gross F1 revenue pot should have doubled to close on $2bn per annum, thereby substantially reducing the bottom-line cost to manufacturers of going grand prix racing.

Buying Toro Rosso could be one route into F1 for VW © LAT

Thus it all fits: VWG supplies a customer team on some or other commercial basis for four years from 2014 while learning the ropes so as to have a scapegoat, switching to full team ownership for 2018, with the only remaining question being: which one(s)?

VWG has long-standing ties with Red Bull - not only does Toro Rosso operate VW road products, with Red Bull having done so until Infiniti's arrival, but SEAT and Audi benefit from Red Bull patronage for their WTCC/DTM programmes. Then, Red Bull is said to be leaving Citroen to sponsor VW's 2013 Polo R WRC campaign - and it is no secret that not only is Toro Rosso for sale at the right price, but that Red Bull's Renault works deal expires at the end of 2016. Factor in that Red Bull long-termer Sebastian Vettel is Germany's latest superhero, and it is simply a matter of joining the dots...