Five themes to watch for at Spa

Into the unknown

Even by Spa standards, it has rained a lot this weekend. Running in dry conditions has been at a premium, with a few laps during Friday practice and then a few more during the final segment of qualifying - and even that was only a dry line on a wet track! That means that teams will have limited setup information and inevitably be a little uncertain about how long the tyres can expect to last.

Based on what we've seen so far, it seems that degradation won't be too bad, meaning that a two-stopper is very much on the cards. Given that teams have been caught out this season by the tyres behaving differently in the race to what is anticipated, there is still potential for teams to be caught out strategically and there were signs during qualifying of blistering that could lead to more stops. This has led to Pirelli making additional front soft compound tyres available after those used in the low temperatures during qualifying suffered problems. Temperatures in the race will be warmer, so it remains to be seen exactly how this affects the race strategy. There is also the curveball of track temperature, as cool conditions could make the prime tyre difficult to get up into its working range during stints.

Last chance to stop Vettel

Sebastian Vettel's title rivals, particularly those in red and silver machinery, see Spa and Monza as a window of opportunity. Vettel is 85 points to the good with 200 left to play for in the drivers' championship. If he converts his eighth pole position of 2011 into another victory, he will be at least 92 points clear with 175 to play for. While mathematically he would still be within reach, it would further reduce the already slender chance that anyone can challenge him in the drivers' championship.

Coming into the weekend, there was a suspicion that even if a Red Bull was in the lead, its straightline speed weakness would make it a sitting duck. A glance at the speed trap 145 metres before Les Combes suggests that Mark Webber and Vettel aren't givng away too much to the Ferraris and McLarens on that score. That means that Vettel has every chance of repeating his "how to win a race in 2011" masterclass by opening up a one-second gap to stay out of DRS range and then controlling the race.

It has rained quite a lot this weekend - even for Spa standards © sutton-images.com

Expect overtaking

The higher the speed a car is doing, the more effective the drag reduction created by engaging the DRS. The activation zone is located 270 metres from the exit of Raidillon at the top of Eau Rouge and runs all the way to Les Combes. Cars are already pulling over 300km/h by the time they reach the activation zone, so the increase in top speed will be significant, with estimates from teams ranging from 10km/h to as much as 25km/h. That means that Spa is likely to be one of the tracks that allows a more straightforward DRS pass than the likes of the Hungaroring or the Nurburgring, although the FIA has worked hard to ensure that the giveaway passes that we saw at tracks like Istanbul and Shanghai are not repeated. At worse, overtaking is going to be eminently possible so expect a race with plenty of action.

Eyes to the skies

At the time of writing, most are anticipating a dry race. But expecting any kind of weather conditions that are not wet at Spa is a dangerous game and there's a good chance that we might see the return of rain at some point during the race.

In Saturday morning practice, drivers characterised the track conditions as worse than in Canada, where the race was suspended for over two hours. So we could have anything from that, which looks unlikely, to a few timely showers that give drivers reason to think about a switch to intermediate rubber. Spa can be a dramatic place when the rain arrives unexpectedly (look back at the stunning final laps of the 2008 race for evidence of that) and the drivers will walk a tightrope of gambling on staying out on slick rubber in the expectation of a brief shower or risking having to make a return visit to the pits a few laps later if they mistakenly put on intermediates.

Alternatively, as Heikki Kovalainen pointed out, you could just follow whatever Jenson Button decides to do in the knowledge that it will probably be the correct move!

Bruno Senna was impressive in qualifying © sutton-images.com

Senna: The second coming

Bruno Senna regards his outing for Renault as effectively his grand prix debut, such were the trials and tribulations of being an HRT driver last season. Traditionally strong in the wet, the Brazilian qualified a remarkable seventh, ahead of team-mate Vitaly Petrov, to give himself a great shot at scoring his first points in Formula 1. With only 411km under his belt in the Renault R31, three-quarters of that during a test outing in February, it was a superb effort.

The wet conditions certainly helped in qualifying, but his Q3 time was set on slicks on a dry line, so he showed he's got a handle on the car in dry conditions too. After a very good qualifying effort, a solid run to a few points would be a fantastic start to his career as a Renault driver, not to mention vastly improving his chances of holding this status in the long term. What happens on Sunday afternoon could have a significant bearing on his future in F1.