The German Grand Prix preview

So Felipe Massa reckons that the World Championship is still open for Ferrari and Fernando Alonso? While it's hard to see either team or driver closing what is more a points chasm than a points gap to the runaway leaders, it's not inconceivable that the prancing horse will be the team galloping up alongside the charging Red Bulls at the front of the field in the second half of the season. After the exhaust blown diffuser controversy of the British Grand Prix two weeks ago, the question is whether Ferrari's Silverstone form is a flash in the pan or down to circumstance.

Chances are it's a little of both, but Ferrari has unquestionably been on an upward curve since its wind tunnel woes were comprehended. The upgrade package taken to May's Spanish GP was the first step in Ferrari's 'true' development path and, as Alonso said at Silverstone, the parts put on the car are producing exactly the performance levels expected. It's a far cry from where the team was at the end of testing and in the early races, and suggests that fundamentally it just might have a car with more raw potential than McLaren.

By the time we get to the midway point of the season, halfway through the German GP, we should have a clear idea of whether it will be the silver or the red corner that can post the biggest threat to Red Bull for race wins. And if McLaren can't reassert itself over its old nemesis Ferrari, it will be a gloomy omen for the rest of the year. Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton haven't had cause to be universally delighted with their team's performance over the past month, but it's nothing that a win, or at least a run at victory, wouldn't put right.

The wildcard is Mark Webber. The Australian has yet to lead a lap this year despite netting two pole positions. It's an unenviable record, but he has been edging ever closer to the almost invincible Sebastian Vettel. And he's fired up after the overblown team orders row that flared during the closing laps at Silverstone.

He took his first grand prix victory and pole position at the Nurburgring two years ago and is arguably the only driver with the machinery to make up the enormous points gap to his young team-mate. It's a long shot, but if he is to haul himself into title contention he will have to fire-up a very long hot streak as soon as possible.

An intriguing sub-plot at the Nurburgring will be the battle of the German drivers. Vettel is the favourite, no question, but the scrap between Mercedes team-mates Nico Rosberg and Michael Schumacher is getting interesting. Rosberg remains the most trustworthy performer, but Schumacher has been very quick of late and is eminently capable of getting the upper hand if he can avoid the compulsion to bend his front wing.

In the dry, the chances of Mercedes springing a surprise are minimal, but if the weather is inclement - hardly an unusual occurrence in the Eifel Mountains - then, as Canada proved, the silver machines might just be a podium threat. The wildcard is Adrian Sutil for improving Force India, another strong driver in wet conditions, although he must first assert himself over rookie team-mate Paul di Resta for the first time in 2011.

The other home hero in machinery capable of a decent result is Nick Heidfeld. F1's super sub has had an indifferent season, with a brilliant third place in Malaysia and some good solid race drives undermined by poor qualifying performances and a nagging feeling that Robert Kubica would regularly be sticking the car in the top six. He has form at the Nurburgring, taking his one and only pole position there for Williams back in 2005, and needs to up his game amid question marks over his future.

But all eyes will be on the front of the field, where Germany's new hero, Vettel (does that make Schumacher the 'old' Vettel now?) has the chance to extend his already monstrous points lead. After the chequered flag falls, there will be only nine races left and if anyone is to launch a challenge for the driver's championship, they need to start cutting into his lead now.

Weather

Strategy

Pirelli has chosen its soft and medium compounds for Germany, with the middle-of-the-road allocation most likely to lead to a two or three stop race. Then again, as with every race this year, it won't be until Friday that we get a clear indication of tyre degradation.

In terms of overtaking, Nurburgring is expected to be in the middle of the spectrum in terms of generating overtaking, with no monster straight as in China or Canada to make DRS-assisted passes very straightforward. With overtaking not so easy, that's going to make choosing the right number of stops key.