A closer look at the 2010 F1 calendar

A month ago this column suggested Formula 1 Commercial Rights' Holder Bernie Ecclestone faced a challenge in finding sufficient events to construct a 16-race 2010 calendar, let alone fill 18 Sundays.

Since then the FIA's World Motor Sport Council sat in Paris to judge the Renault crash-fix affair, and bolted a brief 'general' session to the meeting. Thereafter international motorsport's supreme body issued a provisional, 19-slot 2010 F1 calendar.

However, during the Singapore Grand Prix weekend doubts about the CRH's ability to stage anywhere near that number of grands prix were expressed by various parties. Toyota's John Howett, vice-chairman of the Formula One Teams' Association, told this column that the alliance had been mandated by its members to write to both the FIA and Ecclestone expressing the teams' concerns about certain slots, particularly the Monaco/Turkey/Canada sequence.

FOTA, said Howett, was adamant that contesting the three events, each on a different continent, within a three-week window posed major logistics challenges. Returning to Europe from Istanbul after a back-to-back with Monaco would result in teams reaching their bases too late to repack for their flights to Canada.

Conversely, converting Turkey to a fly-away race would, logically, mean granting Monaco similar status - clearly ridiculous even if Nice airport were able to handle a massive influx of cargo, which in itself is doubtful. Then there is the cost factor in the first year of the Resource Restriction Agreement.

However, FOTA, aware that the Turkish car market is worth 750,000 per annum and that the country exports close on a million units a year - mainly Renaults and Toyotas - and aware that the teams could stand accused of not wishing to race in Turkey, requested an alternate date from the CRH.

However, there still remain lingering doubts about the commitment of various circuits to their contractual obligations. So, what are chances of a 19-race season in 2010, and what, in the opinion of this column, are the percentage chances of the venues as listed on the FIA's provisional calendar hosting a race in 2010?

(*Subject to the completion of contract negotiations with Formula One Management. If these are not completed then the Turkish Grand Prix will be moved to 6 June - official FIA release.)

14/3, Bahrain - Sakhir: 100%

No doubts whatsoever despite mounting direct losses for the 40,000-capacity Sakhir circuit, for the Middle East country prefers to believe its own projection of the benefits of each grand prix on the desert island. The official statistic is around £320m per annum - which equates to £8,000 per punter for the three days.

28/3, Australia - Albert Park: 100%

With the local government in July last year having agreed a deal through to 2015 with Ecclestone, the race appears safe, at least for 2010. However, the venue loses season-opening status on account of refusing to accede to demands for full-on night races.

04/4, Malaysia - Sepang: 100%

The first 'new world' venue has a firm contract covering the 2010 race, although the outcome of talks, held earlier this year, to extend the contract for a further five years have yet to be announced. However, given the success of Singapore's race (just 200 miles away), Sepang has every reason to be nervous about its future.

18/4, China - Shanghai: 60%

Shortly before this year's grand prix rumours circulated that the race would be last held in the space-age 150,000 capacity facility. On the Friday, when questioned about the future of the race, Ecclestone told local reporters, 'We'll always be in China...' which they gleefully took to mean "We'll always be in Shanghai"...

On race day he was conspicuous by his absence, with the word in the paddock being that he was in Beijing, having been snubbed by Shanghai officials who refused to extend the existing deal which after the 2010 race. Rumours that the race won't be staged in 2010 have since intensified, with insiders suggesting it was included on the provisional calendar purely as a matter of contractual protocol.

09/5, Spain - Barcelona: 100%

No problems expected, particularly now that Fernando Alonso has signed for Ferrari. However, in the longer term the circuit may insist on reductions in hosting fees due to falling numbers and the state of the local economy.

23/5, Monaco - Monte Carlo: 100%

The jewel in F1's crown - enough said. About the only criticism the CRH could conceivably level at the most famous grand prix of all is its alleged 'free' status. However, he is unlikely to push too hard for hosting fees lest the principality demand payment for allowing F1 play on its streets...

30/5, Turkey - Istanbul: 30%

Here it gets tricky, for Ecclestone, promoter for the past two years after the government agency charged with the task withdrew, is believed to have lost £12m in that time. He failed to journey to Turkey this year due to illness, but the sight on TV of swathes of empty stands - when not covered by dark tarpaulins to disguise their existence - will hardly have provided a cure.

Cynics suggest he engineered the logistics challenge in the hope that teams would refuse to race in Turkey, thus providing him with a convenient scapegoat - hence FOTA's written request for an alternate date.

13/6, Canada* - Montreal: 50%

The North American venue has only a slightly better chance of hosting a race in June than does Turkey, for the previous promoter is understood to owe FOM £14m for past events. Although FOM's accounts reflect the sum as written-off, this may be an accounting formality. Either way, Ecclestone is adamant the debt be settled before F1 ventures near the Great St Lawrence Seaway. Thus Montreal and Quebec Province need to square the debt PDQ if they hope to host the race; if not, Turkey gets the nod.

27/6, Europe - Valencia: 70%

Although the local government is believed to have agreed in principle to stump up the £80m the local promoters require to fulfil their contractual obligations through to 2012, sources suggest that the deal is far from done and that the race could still disappear from the calendar.

So, okay, the country has Alonso and Campos Grand Prix is scheduled to make its debut next year, but is that enough to justify two grands prix in the present economic climate?

11/7, Great Britain - Donington/Silverstone: 40%

What is with The English Patient? Ecclestone has given Donington another deadline (now October 3) to prove it has the £80m required to upgrade the place. He appears to have doubts, telling the BBC the circuit has had more time three times, and that Silverstone was not a guaranteed alternative.

And, why should the host of the first world championship grand prix fall over itself to oblige given the criticism it has been subjected to over the years. Were it, though, to do so, it would in any event be tight, for Silverstone's contract with MotoGP demands that the circuit run the British (Moto) Grand Prix on June 3, and, given the different safety and commercial demands of that series, little time would remain in which to return the venue to F1 standards.

Finally, why should circuit owner BRDC expend the effort and risk all purely to stage a grand prix which clashes with the FIFA World Cup Final played on the same day in South Africa? A thought: consider the effects of the clash on beleaguered Donington. Does the CRH actually wish for a 2010 British Grand Prix?

25/7, Germany - Hockenheim: 60%

Having given notice three years ago after losing upwards of £30m, Hockenheim entered into a time-share deal with the Nurburgring. At the time this column cautioned against it, pointing out that biennial big-ticket events would increase, not decrease, losses due to the fixed costs involved. Just one race under the deal has persuaded Hockenheim of the harsh economic reality, and now the circuit really wants out.

However, factions within Germany are determined to maintain two F1 circuits in a country which in 2010 will have no domestic F1 team - Mercedes is an engine supplier; Toyota is Japanese despite its Cologne base - and one driver, Sebastian Vettel, who can be considered a German superstar. (See Valencia, above)

In Singapore Mercedes F1 boss Norbert Haug admitted a deal was still outstanding, while this week the government of Baden-Württemberg province stated that any subsidies would be for infrastructure purposes only. With the Greens having made massive political gains in Sunday's elections - the environmentalists increased their support to over 10% for the first time in German history - government support now seems even less likely.

Ecclestone would need to reduce his fees by 60% to around £5m, the point at which the race would not bankrupt the tiny Hockenheim community, to do a deal, but that would impact on his rate card. He could, of course, assume the promoter role - as per Turkey - but then his Hitler comments may come into play...

01/8, Hungary - Budapest: 100%

Although Hungarian sources advised that Ecclestone extended the contract with Hungaroring Sport Plc on the morning of this year's race until 2015, the circuit's website reflects only that Hungaroring 'holds the organisation rights for the Formula 1 Hungarian Grand Prix until 2011'.

Either way, there is little reason to doubt that Budapest's circuit will host its event as scheduled in 2010.

29/8, Belgium - Spa-Francorchamps: 80%

A Belgian court recently ordered this all-time classic circuit to close after management ignored a noise pollution order, but the matter is expected to be resolved before next August. That said, protesters are a dogged bunch, and the wheels of the Belgian legal system revolve excruciatingly slowly...

More ominous are the losses posted by the circuit each passing grand prix - another £4.5m this year and counting - forcing it into a time-share 'solution' with Nürburgring. How long, then, before Spa disappears from the F1 calendar forever? How ironic if FOM's hosting fees achieve what noise activists can't.

12/9, Italy - Monza: 100%

No problems. Ah, sorry, powers that be aren't exactly recognised for their sense of history, are they?

26/9, Singapore - Singapore: 100%

Sunday's event proved exactly why the night race deserves its place on the calendar.

03/10, Japan - Suzuka: 100%

During the Valencia weekend Ecclestone confirmed that Suzuka was locked in until 2011 after Fuji gave notice on the two-year rotating time-share deal negotiated by Ecclestone with the Toyota-owned circuit. With Suzuka owned by F1 refugee Honda, what happens after 2011? Whatever, the 2010 race seems safe.

17/10, Korea - LG: 100%

As pointed out a month ago, this race is go-go-go; however, doubts remain over its exact classification and benefits - would it be an additional race, for which Ecclestone pays over the odds should the calendar exceed 17 races; if so, what would be the commercial benefits to teams given that biggest beneficiary would likely be FOM through its LG partnership?

31/10, Abu Dhabi: 100%

So far the exotic Middle Eastern circuit has played by the book, so no fears exist about 2010.

14/11, Brazil: 100%

A better place for the finale one could not hope to find.

Thus just 12 grands prix can be considered as givens on the 2010 calendar, with a further three having 60-80 percent chance of inclusion, by this column's calculation. That leaves four events with 50 percent or less.

Put differently, the score of all races above equals 1590 out of 1900, or 82 percent. That, expressed as a factor of 19, pans out at 16 grands prix - one less than 2009's listing...

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- The Autosport.com Team

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