How Felipe Massa could have won in Spain

One of the most fascinating aspects of this season has been the provision by the FIA of the post-qualifying car weights, plus the fuel levels chosen by those drivers who didn't make Q1.

In the past, we had to rely on seeing when people made their first pitstops to have a clear idea of what really happened in qualifying, but even then safety cars and occasional strategy changes would skew the figures.

Now it's all there in black and white. We know how big the fuel tanks are on some of the cars - those guys who have filled up at one race or another after a disastrous qualifying - and we have a pretty good idea of in what order the cars are going to stop, even if determining the exact lap remains something of a black art.

But where it really comes in handy is finding out who was truly quickest in Q3. Those weights are taken as the cars roll into parc ferme at the end of their final runs, and a little bit of maths can quickly tell us what actually happened. In Bahrain for example, pole man Jarno Trulli was genuinely quickest, while Sebastian Vettel has been right there for the past couple of races.

But perhaps the single most intriguing snippet to emerge thus far was in Barcelona. A glance down the list revealed that in fourth place, Felipe Massa was heavier than those ahead of, and immediately behind, him and suddenly his performance was put into its proper perspective. After the desperate struggles of the previous few races, Ferrari had bolted on its Mk1 double diffuser, plus a few other bits, and suddenly the F60 was in the hunt. The maths revealed that Massa was less than 0.2s off the ultimate pace.

Felipe Massa at speed at Barcelona © LAT

The day before, the team had been a little bit at sea which is perhaps not surprising considering it had not been able to test its new package. But hard work overnight transformed the situation and the red cars were fast on Saturday morning. But people run different fuel loads in that session, so the real potential still wasn't clear.

However, the signs were there once qualifying proper started. Massa was fastest in Q1 - when some people still had a bit in reserve - and was then fourth in Q2, 0.2s off Jenson Button. Nevertheless the ultimate grid position, given the fuel load, was an eye opener. At 655kgs, he was 9kgs - in theory exactly four laps - heavier than pole man Jenson, plus 3.5kgs above Sebastian Vettel and 5.5kgs over Rubens Barrichello.

The heavier load meant that Massa would be last to stop of those at the sharp end of the grid and that meant he just might be able to pull something off. The more you looked at the numbers, the more it made sense. Alone of the guys at the front, Massa had the benefit of KERS for the start. Barcelona was the longest run from the startline to the first corner so far this year and Ferrari's own numbers suggested that once the boost chimed in at 100kph, in theory he could pass the two cars immediately ahead.

Consider then that Button was on pole and had made some pretty rubbish starts so far. What if Massa could get Vettel and Barrichello, and then somehow muscle alongside Button into Turn 1? The championship leader had said in Bahrain that he couldn't think about points and had to be aggressive, but the chances were that he'd give way in a contest with the Ferrari.

If Massa could get into the lead at the start, with the later pitstop he would have a good chance of staying there. Obviously those stuck behind him in the first stint could have changed their strategies so much that they would be able to get ahead, but Massa was a potential winner. He was 13-1 and that didn't look a bad bet.

But in the event, it didn't work out. His KERS system didn't work as it should have done and, while he got Vettel off the line, the two Brawns remained out of reach. But Button did indeed make another below par getaway and it was Barrichello that pulled off the pass Massa might have managed.

"It was not so wonderful," he said of his start. "I just passed Vettel but my KERS didn't work, so I couldn't pass one of the Brawns."

Massa had no answer for the pace of the Brawns, but he held off Vettel for most of the race and Red Bull's hopes of jumping him at either pitstop were ruined when their man came in at the same time on both occasions.

Felipe Massa makes a pitstop © LAT

"It was very difficult for him to pass me, so I was holding my position very well," said Massa.

But it was in the pits that things went wrong for Felipe. According to sources, 4kg of fuel didn't get into the car at the first stop and, crucially, 9kg at the second - a massive amount. There was no clear explanation and it wasn't a rig problem, as the team swapped for the second stop.

"In the second stint the car was very oversteery because of this wheel flange which was coming off, so I was struggling a lot with of that," he said. "When it came off it improved a bit the situation."

The bottom line was that he left the pits the second time without enough fuel to get to the end at racing speed. It was here that another great innovation made life interesting for us, because this year, for the first time, we've had unadulterated radio traffic from Ferrari. The conversations between engineer Rob Smedley and Massa became an ongoing soap opera as they discussed the dire situation, and of course Red Bull could hear what was happening so urged Vettel to keep the pressure on.

"Go to revs P3, save fuel and see if we can make it to the end," said Smedley on lap 52. A few laps later he made it crystal clear: "We're not going to make it to the end."

"What can I do?," Felipe shrieked back. "I need to fight for the position!"

Finally, around lap 62, Vettel sailed past: "Let him go, we're a lap short," said Smedley.

At that point, Fernando Alonso was 16 seconds behind and catching fast. Right at the end he too stole a place from the Brazilian. Massa was then told to park after crossing the line to ensure that he had some fuel in the tank for the mandatory FIA sample.

At least something was salvaged and Ferrari insisted that had Massa come in for a splash and day, he would have fallen behind Alonso anyway. It was worth staying out in case a safety car threw Felipe a lifeline.

"With another pitstop maybe we would lose much more points," he insisted. "So it was better to back off, save the fuel and just do the best we could to finish with some points. Again I had to follow the team."

Even today in Monaco, Ferrari was at a loss to explain what happened as its investigations had revealed no definitive answers. All the team knew was that fuel that should have been in the tank was still in the hose.

There was an anomaly too in the first stint. The weights suggested that Felipe would run four laps longer than Button and at least one beyond Vettel. But he stopped only two after Jenson and on the same lap as the Red Bull man.

Rivals suggested that some of that weight differential was accounted for not by fuel, but by the hurried changes to the car tipping it over the limit. Indeed, even before the start Red Bull had factored that into the equation. Prior to Spain, Massa's car had been 4kg below the limit - in other words with KERS on board that's how much ballast he had to play with - and with the new bits he was 1kg over. Not quite enough to account for the premature stop.

Felipe Massa tries to hold off the Red Bull of Sebastian Vettel © LAT

Our access to the fuel weights certainly suggests that there's a wide disparity between the consumption of different engines, and the way drivers use them - you can always save fuel stuck behind someone - also plays a role. Certainly Vettel and Alonso, who happen to share Renault power, seem to be able to run further than anyone else.

So on the surface, Spain was another in the series of blows that Ferrari has suffered this year - lack of speed, poor reliability, bad calls in qualifying, Kimi Raikkonen's retirement with a throttle problem. And all this at a time when the team has launched itself into a war with the FIA. Tensions are high in the camp.

But there were signs of hope. As we saw, Massa had no trouble keeping the faster Vettel behind him, even when he was in the early stages of fuel conservation, and he could well have done the same to both Brawns had they been behind from the start. There really was a sniff of victory. Massa himself insisted that had he been in front, he could have controlled the pitstops.

"I think we saw a great pace, a strong car to fight [with] at least, and that for sure is encouraging to the future, to the next races," he said. "We saw that in one race we improved a lot the car, so I hope we can improve it even more in the next races."

First time out with the unproven diffuser, the car was within touching distance of Brawn and Red Bull on pure pace, and ahead of Toyota. It was a sign that the continuous grind of development that has kept Ferrari at the top for so long is still in place, but this time around it's not going to be employed in a title battle. Even Massa has accepted that, but it could ultimately be to his benefit.

Without the onerous pressures of being in a championship fight, team and drivers - and we should not discount Kimi - can now just aim for individual race wins. They have nothing to lose, no reason to play a percentage game and collect eight or six points. It could even start in Monaco this weekend, after all Massa was on pole last year. Perhaps I'll win back the tenner I lost on him at 13-1 in Spain.