Was Bottas doomed to lose at Mugello despite ‘race one’ win?

Formula 1 was only racing at Mugello because of the freak nature of 2020 and the disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic. This MotoGP paradise had held testing back in 2012 and is owned by Ferrari, which secured the inaugural Tuscan Grand Prix when F1 was redrawing this year's calendar, and it opted to celebrate its 1000th world championship race (after massaging of entry definitions) at the track.

Mugello is tricky for the drivers and engineers, and it is vicious, ready to bite the slightest mistake with its close gravel traps and narrow, high-speed nature - only Monza and Silverstone have faster average laps. Intrigue was high as to what kind of race this would produce.

In the end, F1 got a freak event.

"It was like three races in one day," said Lewis Hamilton, after he had been defeated in one and victorious in the other two, as well as triumphant in the actual, single, grand prix.

Hamilton's Mercedes team-mate Valtteri Bottas 'won' the opening race, which was interrupted twice and ultimately halted thanks to two contentious incidents. There then followed a sliver of normality but little in the way of strategy, before proceedings were halted again, restarted, and ultimately concluded.

Here is the story of how Bottas had chances to win all three 'races', yet could only triumph in one of the whimsically-yet-wrongly styled 'race' chapters, and wasn't ahead when the real chequered flag fell.

'Race one' - Bottas's sole triumph comes to naught

Bottas had suggested that a strong headwind into the first corner would give him a chance after he was edged out of pole position by Hamilton, who came on strongest right when it mattered in Q2 and the opening runs of Q3. In the end, although that headwind was indeed gusting at times on Sunday, he didn't need it when it came to the initial race start.

Autosport's vantage point in the Mugello media centre offered a fantastic view of pole position at the start (as well as Alfa Romeo's calamitous first pitstop with Kimi Raikkonen). And so, we watched keenly as the lights went out.

It was just possible to discern the barest of twitches from Hamilton's car before the lights changed. He did not go forwards as such, and he clearly did not jump the start, but his car seemed to flinch, and then he made a poor getaway. It was very similar to Bottas's bad starts in Hungary and Spain (with another one the previous week at Monza), where he struggled with Mercedes' launch system and, particularly in the case of the Hungaroring, had to do it again after initially moving before the lights changed.

Hamilton's start was so bad Red Bull's Max Verstappen had begun to pull alongside well before they approached the slight rise on Mugello's meandering main straight

"Every situation is different so I just went too deep and got wheelspin, [it] also wasn't a very good reaction so Valtteri beat us off there," Hamilton said afterwards.

And yet, onboard replays confirm the twitch and Mercedes reported on the world champion's radio that he had been "on target". "Looks like a clutch issue," added Peter Bonnington.

Whatever the cause, this was the latest bad Mercedes start in 2020, but it benefited Bottas for a change as he ran clear into Turn 1, San Donato. As he and Hamilton shot clear in the rest of Mugello's uphill first sector, the safety car was quickly called into action when the first major accident of many last Sunday occurred.

Hamilton's start was so bad Red Bull's Max Verstappen had begun to pull alongside well before they approached the slight rise on Mugello's meandering main straight. But all of a sudden Verstappen lost momentum, thwarted by an electrical problem, as he screamed "no power!". This meant he dropped quickly into the pack and was collected when Raikkonen, Pierre Gasly and Romain Grosjean came together approaching Turn 2 - Luco.

The incident was initially triggered as Raikkonen slid to his right, with Gasly caught in a bind as they ran three-abreast. Under braking, Gasly smashed into the Alfa's right-front, sending Raikkonen into Verstappen and Gasly into Grosjean. The Haas driver was able to escape from Luco's gravel trap, but the Red Bull and Italian GP winner were out on the spot. The clash was assessed to be a "first lap" racing incident by the stewards.

The race was scheduled to restart on lap seven, but that never really happened thanks to probably the most contentious moment of the event - and arguably the season so far.

Bottas led the pack to the control line - unusually located at the chequered flag post next to the starting light gantry. He weaved considerably but did not step on the gas until he'd travelled most of the way down the grid, at which point he dropped Hamilton and shot clear. But that was as good as things got for Bottas last Sunday.

In the pack behind, George Russell and Kevin Magnussen were among those that had let large gaps develop at the last corner - into which they charged. The trouble was, the head of the race had not started its own charge, so Russell and Magnussen were forced to slow in turn as they reached the grid hatchings and havoc reigned behind.

Antonio Giovinazzi ploughed into the back of Magnussen, with Carlos Sainz Jr - who had been turned around just ahead of the Turn 2 shunt when he clashed with Lance Stroll, then got hit by Sebastian Vettel's Ferrari, unfortunate with nowhere to go - smashing into the back of the Alfa. Giovinazzi's momentum carried him into Nicholas Latifi (seconds after Latifi had avoided hitting Magnussen at the final corner as he initially made to start his charge from Bucine) and all four were out. Cars sat destroyed underneath the slightly occupied main grandstand and the race was quickly halted.

"The drivers were all advised very clearly at the drivers' meeting on Friday night," said F1 race director, Michael Masi. "There were two key parts to remind them.

"One was to ensure that they don't overtake the safety car before the safety car line at pit entry. The second part, which is unusual for this circuit, is that the control line where they can overtake is located close to the pitlane exit. So, it's not a surprise, and we've seen similar matters in Baku, with such a long run to the control line, where the leader who has every right to dictate the pace has kept it quite slow to try and avoid a slipstream from the cars behind."

Nearly three hours after the race had finished, the stewards handed warnings to the four drivers who crashed - plus Daniil Kvyat, Alex Albon, Lance Stroll, Daniel Ricciardo, Sergio Perez, Lando Norris and Esteban Ocon. Their conclusion was that "the root cause of this incident was the inconsistent application of throttle and brake, from the final corner along the pitstraight, by the above drivers".

"I was definitely worried as I saw a flame at one stage, which is not good, because that burns all the interior of what is in the upright" Lewis Hamilton

Bottas, who was sticking to the Mercedes restart plan as the team intended to minimise the headwind impact/tow effect, was determined to have "complied with the regulations" as he was within his rights to dictate the pace until the control line. He and Hamilton later suggested the late timing of the safety car lights turning off was a factor - they went off as the one-off red-coloured course car was entering Bucine. Masi dismissed that argument and also said suggestions the FIA were putting the spectacle above safety at restarts was "actually quite offensive personally".

So, Bottas took a clear 'race win' at this point - it just wasn't one that counted.

'Race two' - Hamilton defies brake fire to steal back first

The second 'race' wasn't just about the start or restarts, although the second grid getaway did play a massive role.

Hamilton arrived in his new P2 grid spot with his brakes smoking heavily, and they quickly caught fire as he and Bottas waited for the much-reduced pack to form up. Smoke billowed from Hamilton's car, and flames were clearly visible from his front-right brake.

"On the formation lap I had a separation of my front brake temperatures by nearly two hundred degrees," he explained. "So I was pushing them very hard to bring the one that was down equal. And I got them up to a thousand degrees and I tried to cool them through the last corner and all the way to the start.

"I got to the grid and there was a lot of smoke coming. I was definitely worried as I saw a flame at one stage, which is not good, because that burns all the interior of what is in the upright. Fortunately, the start got under way relatively quickly and I didn't have a problem from there on, but it was definitely on the limit."

Hamilton certainly didn't have a problem despite the flames. He charged after Bottas, who made a decent getaway from 'pole'. But as they ran through the rise towards San Donato, Hamilton was all over Bottas, who seemed to lose a touch of momentum at this point. Hamilton stole to the outside, used the heavy camber at the right-hander to stay planted and went around his rival to steal back the lead. He did not lose it again.

Here followed a 34-lap relatively normal 'race', which was characterised by Bottas's classic problem compared to his team-mate: tyre-life management. Between the second start after lap nine and when Bottas came into the pits for his sole green flag stop of the race (the leaders changed tyres four times in total, twice during the red flags - used softs to new mediums and then new mediums to used softs - and once more at the second safety car to take on the second mediums from hards) on lap 31, the gap had generally held at around 1.5s-2.1s as the Mercedes drivers lapped in the high 1m22s or low 1m23s.

But the gap had ballooned to 5.713s by lap 30 and continued to increase on Bottas's in-lap, as he suddenly struggled severely for grip on the first medium tyres the Mercedes drivers had fitted at the first red flag. Lapping Grosjean and Raikkonen was also a factor.

Over this stint, Hamilton averaged 1m23.131s vs Bottas's 1m23.418s, which gave Hamilton his gap to the average tune of 0.287s per lap - although this is exacerbated by Bottas's struggles as the stint wore on.

"Valtteri ran the rubber down to zero, and therefore had vibrations, and we made the safety stop," Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff explained afterwards.

Bottas took on new hards - after demanding he be given the "opposite" rubber to Hamilton, in the anticipation he would be brought in second, as is Mercedes typical strategy when safety is not a factor. Hamilton, who insisted he had tyre life remaining when he came in one tour later, also took the hards and was 7.028s clear at the end of his out-lap. Both were subsequently warned to stay off the kerbs as Mercedes was concerned about further tyre problems.

Bottas did press on here, going 0.135s per lap quicker than Hamilton until the start of lap 43, when he'd just got the gap down to 5.817s and the second race suspension occurred. Stroll, who was chasing Ricciardo after being demoted from third (which he in turn had taken from the powerless, grip-less Charles Leclerc on lap 18, after Leclerc had risen in the chaos of the opening lap), crashed. Ricciardo had jumped the Racing Point with an undercut stop, and Albon was closing, when on the 43rd tour Stroll's race ended suddenly and violently. A suspected puncture sent him off at high speed into the tyre barriers beyond the second Arrabbiata.

The red flags flew as it became clear the barriers needed repairing and Hamilton 'won' the middle 'race'.

'Race three' - Bottas blows his final start chance

After another long delay, the remaining 12 cars left the pitlane to again reform the grid and take a third standing start of the day. This time, both Mercedes reacted perfectly well enough, but Bottas bogged down as he left the line and he was jumped by Ricciardo, who wisely took the outside line at San Donato to offer Bottas no chance of an immediate fightback.

The third chapter boiled down to a 13-lap dash to the flag, which Hamilton edged. He kept Bottas just over a second behind, out of DRS range, until unleashing the fastest lap on the penultimate tour to push the gap to 2s

Nevertheless, the Mercedes was back ahead at that spot on the following tour - with Ricciardo forced to brake earlier into the long right-hander and Bottas making full use of the W11's healthy downforce advantage to steam back into second around the outside.

The third chapter boiled down to a 13-lap dash to the flag, which Hamilton edged. He kept Bottas just over a second behind, out of DRS range, until unleashing the fastest lap on the penultimate tour to push the gap to 2s. Bottas then had a slow final lap, resulting in a winning margin of 4.880s.

The real action came from Albon behind, who finally made a brave around-the-outside-pass-with-a-podium-on-the-line move stick, as he thwarted Ricciardo's brilliant bid for a first Renault rostrum visit on lap 51. Albon was urged to chase Bottas, but the Mercedes was basically toying with the Red Bull, as Bottas dropped back in an ultimately vain attempt to wrest the fastest lap from Hamilton.

Was Bottas destined to lose?

If the race had run cleanly to the flag (a tall order given Mugello's fearsome bite and the likeliness of the gravel trapping cars) and the first safety car restart nonsense had not occurred, would Bottas have won?

As there was such little strategy in play last Sunday, we must assume that Bottas more than likely would still have been the loser given how much time he lost before his green flag stop. Hamilton had so much pace in hand - he gained 3.115s over laps 29 and 30 - a pass seems probable.

At the same time, we must give Bottas some benefit of the doubt because it is true, as he pointed out: "When you are behind, you need to slide the car more and that uses up your tyre." But here we must also acknowledge that Hamilton has historically had superiority in terms of tyre management - it is a weakness Bottas seems unable to solve. Bottas did edge back in the laps before Stroll's crash, but he wasn't exactly homing in on his team-mate. Plus, Hamilton had the edge on pure speed on race day.

Whatever the case, this was the second weekend in a row where Hamilton made a mistake and Bottas did not capitalise.

"I don't really remember all the phases but it seemed there were no opportunities once I lost position at the second start, but that's how it goes," he said in parc ferme.

The last word must go to the victor, who, with 90 F1 wins, is just one behind Michael Schumacher's all-time record: "Valtteri was so quick all weekend so keeping him behind in the starts and stops we had, I wouldn't say it was easy to stay in the zone," Hamilton reflected in the post-race press conference.

"It just doesn't seem real [reaching 90 wins]. I never thought that I would be here, that's for sure."