Why F1 may get another Mercedes/Red Bull showdown in Spain

After Red Bull and Max Verstappen inflicted a stunning and unexpected defeat on Mercedes at a hot Silverstone in last weekend's 70th Anniversary Grand Prix, the big question is whether it can do so again at Barcelona for this weekend's Spanish GP.

And the other spelling - weather - is again a critical factor for the final race of Formula 1's second triple-header of the condensed 2020 season. There are two other dynamics to consider when it comes to the question of whether (back to the first one) Red Bull can repeat its Silverstone result: tyres and Verstappen himself.

Looking at the overall picture from short and long run data gathered at Barcelona today, where the sun beat down strongly to raise the asphalt to 50-degrees in FP2 as F1 visited Catalonia at an unusual time of year thanks to the pandemic, it seems there is indeed the potential for the reigning champion team to trip up again. And it looks like it's another combination of those three factors mentioned above that will do the trick.

It's predicted that another incredibly tight contest is on (at this stage) for Sunday, which Lewis Hamilton thinks will have "a really close race", as Red Bull led the way on the averages in practice on the favoured race tyre.

Of course, all the usual caveats about fuel loads and engine modes (set to be an even bigger consideration from Spa onwards thanks to the FIA's decision to clamp down on special qualifying settings) apply. And this remains a snapshot of the situation on Friday, with the potential for things to change as those very clever people at all the teams go to work to find improvements overnight.

And that is a good place to start when considering Mercedes today, because the team has spent - per technical director James Allison - "the week back at the factory [between the two races] trying to understand why it was we had such poor rear blistering on the car in Silverstone. Trying to make sure our set-ups for this weekend are taking that into account, and improving the situation".

The team did not massively alter its run plan across the two 90-minute sessions at Barcelona today compared to normal, but it did try all three tyres where it didn't at Silverstone last week (where the hard tyre was the medium for this race and the ones before, which it didn't try in practice for the 70th Anniversary GP). Mercedes did this to try and eliminate any potential blindspots when it comes to the various compounds.

OVERALL PRACTICE TIMES

1 Mercedes Bottas 1m16.785s FP1
2 Red Bull Verstappen 1m17.704s FP2
3 Renault Ricciardo 1m17.868s FP2
4 Haas Grosjean 1m18.133s FP2
5 Ferrari Leclerc 1m17.970s FP1
6 McLaren Sainz 1m18.214s FP2
7 Racing Point Perez 1m18.293s FP2
8 AlphaTauri Gasly 1m18.312s FP2
9 Alfa Romeo Raikkonen 1m18.900s FP2
10 Williams Latifi 1m19.155s FP2

As can be seen above, Mercedes got to its usual position at the head of the overall times - although what was unusual today was that the 10-degree increase in track temperature between FP1 and FP2 meant not all the teams went faster in the afternoon. This is often seen in winter testing at the Barcelona track and indeed Mercedes' best time of the day came from Bottas's best run in FP1.

The soft tyre requires delicate usage given it is the softest compound and times drop off towards the end of a stint

Verstappen's best time of Friday came in FP2, but his 0.821s gap to Hamilton in the session that started at the same time as qualifying might actually have been even bigger if this had been Saturday because the Red Bull driver apparently got a tow from Ferrari's Sebastian Vettel that gained him 0.2s.

But that shouldn't bother Red Bull too much at this stage, and in fact it seems to be an area of concern for Mercedes, which doesn't yet fully understand why the gap between the two squads closes quite so dramatically in the longer runs.

SOFT TYRE ORDER

1 Mercedes 1m22.690s 8 laps
2 Ferrari 1m23.024s 4 laps
3 Red Bull 1m23.052s 11 laps
4 Racing Point 1m23.614s 14 laps
5 McLaren 1m23.842s 10 laps
6 AlphaTauri 1m23.893s 10 laps
7 Renault 1m23.944s 8 laps
8 Haas 1m24.270s 13 laps
9 Alfa Romeo 1m24.602s 9 laps
10 Williams 1m25.205s 9 laps

Mercedes also led the way on the soft tyre long runs, but it is not yet fully known how the C3 compound will perform on a race stint. It will require delicate usage given it is the softest compound and times drop off towards the end of a stint.

But, as an interesting point on this subject, Renault managed a long stint with Esteban Ocon that was only somewhat slower (0.355s) than Daniel Ricciardo's best average in the table above, which was half the length of his team-mate's run (eight vs 17).

MEDIUM TYRE ORDER

1 Red Bull 1m22.552s 12 laps
2 Ferrari 1m22.556s 5 laps
3 Mercedes 1m22.771s 16 laps
4 AlphaTauri 1m23.478s 15 laps
5 Haas 1m23.561s 10 laps
6 Renault 1m23.562s 16 laps
7 McLaren 1m23.804s 10 laps
8 Alfa Romeo 1m24.159s 15 laps
9 Williams 1m24.971s 7 laps
*Racing Point did not run mediums in FP2

But Red Bull led the way on the average times for the mediums, which is what raises the prospect of Sunday being such a close contest because this is the much better race tyre. And it was pace and longevity on the harder rubber in the second Silverstone race that led to Verstappen's win.

Verstappen's average on the mediums today is also 0.138s faster than Bottas's long run on the softs (where incidentally Hamilton was significantly adrift of his team-mate). Ferrari is in between both the two leading squads on both tyres, but it only did very short runs, so we can consider the team as an outlier at this stage.

The usual power mode gap between the Honda and Mercedes seen so far this season apparently wasn't there at Barcelona today

Mercedes led the way on the hards (below) - which Red Bull didn't touch, along with four other teams - but it is a much slower race tyre, and the drivers clearly hate it. McLaren's Norris called it "garbage" and Bottas actually went off the road at a slow speed corner using it.

"Actually the worse tyre this weekend for us is the hard, with no grip," said Norris's team-mate Carlos Sainz Jr. "We don't know why, probably the heat. Just a lot of wheelspin, the tyre doesn't really grip to the Tarmac with this heat. The soft felt reasonable, nothing special."

HARD TYRE ORDER

1 Mercedes 1m23.264s 16 laps
2 Renault 1m23.492s 5 laps
3 AlphaTauri 1m23.832s 17 laps
4 Racing Point 1m23.850s 14 laps
5 Williams 1m25.525s 11 laps
*Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren, Alfa Romeo and Haas did not run hards in FP2

What is interesting but buried in all of this is that it seems the usual power mode gap between the Honda and Mercedes seen so far this season (with the Honda usually more turned up in practice on the Red Bull) wasn't there at Barcelona today. Plus, it seems Red Bull was competitive in all three sectors given Verstappen's long run compared to Hamilton, with the two leaders in the points standings basically mirroring each other's runs in FP2.

The data gathered today has a heavy implication for the race strategies and it's not yet clear which is the fastest way to go. But it seems the leading teams have two options. A, a one stop of medium-hard, or B, a two-stop soft-medium-medium.

As evidenced helpfully by Renualt today, the soft tyre being able to hang in there gives Mercedes an option for the start, with the caveat that its life looks rather rear-limited and that is a potential worry.

Red Bull can also potentially use it at the end of the race if it can get through Q2 on the mediums as it has of late, which was crucial to its Silverstone win (albeit Verstappen did that race's middle qualifying session on the hards, but that was nevertheless a step harder than the mediums everyone else used). It seems we're unlikely to see all the front-running Q2 laps being set on the mediums this time around.

A soft-medium one-stop might be a wildcard strategy if anyone is brave enough to try it, with Ferrari in particular (although hats should be tipped to Renault and Alfa Romeo, and Ocon and Kimi Raikkonen) for making an unfancied one-stopper work so well with Charles Leclerc last weekend.

Returning to the tyre life factor, today Mercedes saw none of the blistering that so utterly ruined things for it in the 70th Anniversary GP.

The rougher asphalt at Barcelona is a factor here as the cars were sliding differently on the smoother asphalt at Silverstone, which Mercedes suspects played a part in its severe issue with blisters last week. There is also a suspicion that a set-up imbalance - going too much towards the rear - was a factor in that problem.

But, and not forgetting the caveat that the tyre range is a step harder this week, as Hamilton says, it also didn't see any blisters at the same stage last week... "I didn't see any blistering, but we didn't see blistering last Friday either," said the world champion.

"I really can't say too much. It felt OK. The long run didn't look too bad. I don't know how much further we could go as opposed to how much further Red Bull compared to us. That will define whether or not it's one or two stop this weekend."

In the pack behind the top two, Ferrari may be in line for another strong result

So, it seems that Red Bull is right in play again, but only on race pace. It will definitely be well off in qualifying unless something massively unexpected happens.

But this is crucial because Verstappen - who judging by the pace on both short and long runs is the only threat to Mercedes this weekend - was beaten by Nico Hulkenberg in Q3 at the last event.

If he qualifies anywhere other than third - or even if he has a slow start from there - he will be at a major disadvantage at a track where passing is so tough. If that happens, this is more than likely be an intra-Mercedes affair. So, what Verstappen does with tyres in Q2 and when the time is there to leave nothing to spare in Q3 will both be critical to the outcome of the race.

In the pack behind the top two, Ferrari may indeed be in line for another strong result given its times today. But it may also be unwise to bet too much on this because the team doesn't seem to understand (or perhaps doesn't want to say) why Leclerc could do what he could on his run to fourth last weekend.

Renault again looks strong over one lap and in the long runs versus McLaren, which feels the tyre behaviour at Barcelona "is more typical" according to team racing director Andrea Stella. Like Mercedes, McLaren struggled with severe tyre problems in last Sunday's race.

Haas looked very rapid today and it was completely unsure why that was, with Romain Grosjean saying after FP2: "I don't really know where this performance came from".

But the team has traditionally been strong at Barcelona as the track's high-energy nature means it can find the tyre window a bit easier (as it did last year) and the Ferrari engine deficit is a bit masked this weekend too. Fuel load is thought to be a likely factor behind Grosjean's pace.

At the back of the overall times and in all three tyre tables, Williams "struggled for basic pace at both fuel levels", according to head of vehicle performance Dave Robson. But the team is confident it can fix this overnight.