The top picks to replace Vettel at Ferrari

Just when Formula 1's 2020 silly season had looked as if it would fail to live up to the billing it deserved with so many top drivers heading into the final year of their current contracts, Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari reignited the market.

Vettel is leaving one of the best seats on the grid - whether that's simply in terms of Ferrari's heritage and prestige or because he occupies one of only six cars that can realistically win a race until the 2022 rule changes.

So, whoever gets Vettel's drive leaps into an environment of immediate pressure and expectation - but that won't be stopping any drivers, in and out of F1, throwing their metaphorical hats in Mattia Binotto's direction.

So, here are the early candidates to join Charles Leclerc at Ferrari for 2021 based on logic - often ultimately irrelevant in major contract talks - and insight.

The favourites:

Carlos Sainz Jr

At the top of the list, and Autosport's sources have suggested he is indeed the early overall favourite, is McLaren driver Carlos Sainz Jr - with some reports even suggesting a deal may be forthcoming this week.

Sainz ended 2019 as the top non-Class A driver (even beating Pierre Gasly and Alex Albon thanks to their mid-season Red Bull/Toro Rosso switches) in the standings. He picked up a maiden F1 podium with his charging drive in Brazil and led the way at a team that was rediscovering its form after years of malaise.

He does come with some baggage, but Sainz showed in 2019 he's able to work well with a highly-rated team-mate in Lando Norris

It's easy to see why Sainz would be an attractive candidate for Ferrari. He does come with some baggage considering the lingering tension when he drove alongside Max Verstappen in 2015 and the start of 2016, but Sainz showed in 2019 he's able to work well with a highly-rated team-mate in Lando Norris. He just generally exudes maturity despite only being 25.

McLaren acted early to secure Sainz's services for 2020, but he's out of contract at the end of this season. Given this is a promotion into Class A and he was on the brink of an F1 exit as an unfortunate victim in the Daniel Ricciardo-to-Renault saga two summers ago, it makes sense for his camp to be pushing hard for a dream move.

It's not entirely fair on Renault to assume Ricciardo is looking for a swift exit to his time with the team - although it did go backwards relative to its midfield opposition in 2019 - but we know the 30-year-old has been keen on a Ferrari switch in the past. That surely can't have changed and Vettel's departure brings about a chance to race for F1's most-storied team that he may well have thought was gone forever.

From Ferrari's point of view, Ricciardo is a proven grand prix race winner, and is generally considered to be one of the best racers on the grid. But this will need to be balanced against the potential for Ricciardo to disturb Leclerc's position as the team's star - proven by its decision to give him a long-term deal after only one, albeit it very successful, season.

On the face of it, it would be assumed that Sainz would arrive with less boat-rocking potential. But then it was only a few years ago that Ferrari signed Kimi Raikkonen (then a consistent race challenger, and winner, with Lotus) to partner Fernando Alonso and put its most-recent world champion alongside a driver who was then its next-world-champion-in-waiting...

Ricciardo's hefty Renault contract runs out at the end of 2020, so now would be the time for him to also try and engineer a dream move to the Scuderia - just when it looked as if any avenues away from Enstone had closed.

Antonio Giovinazzi

If picking Sainz is considered a 'sensible' call for Ferrari to make, then the extension of that theory would be to instead promote Antonio Giovinazzi from Alfa Romeo. He occupies the seat that Ferrari can determine at the former Sauber-badged squad and has tested for the manufacturer in the past, having been its simulator driver in 2018.

While he has shown great speed wherever he's raced, Giovinazzi has not demonstrated that star turn that may disturb Leclerc

Team finances are going to come under greater scrutiny regardless of F1's progress with its cost cap rule, but driver salaries are set to be exempt anyway, because of the economic effects of the pandemic. So, this therefore plays into Giovinazzi's chances of a promotion as he has less experience and is less proven than either Sainz or Ricciardo.

And yet that of course means there is less of a guarantee that he will produce the same potential results. A further extension here is that while he has shown great speed wherever he's raced so far in his career, he has not demonstrated that star turn that may disturb Leclerc.

PLUS: How Vettel's Ferrari dream died

The outsiders:

Nico Hulkenberg

Nico Hulkenberg's 10-season stint in F1 as a race and test driver came to an end after 2020, when Renault opted to partner Esteban Ocon with Ricciardo. The 2009 GP2 champion once seemed destined to make the switch to a top squad - with Ferrari heavily linked with his services during his single year at Sauber in 2013 - but it never came to pass.

There were suggestions that he had not impressed sufficiently and indeed he is on the sidelines without a podium finish, despite making 177 race starts. And yet, Hulkenberg's talent remains immense - it's interesting to wonder how his life might have been different had just a few things (mainly in Brazil 2012 and Germany last year) worked out for him.

He would be a strong candidate for Ferrari - not afraid to take on Leclerc and (judging by his time alongside Ricciardo at Renault) not likely to cause too many issues that would jeopardise team harmony.

Valtteri Bottas

Now, this speculation is tricky - mainly because you must consider what Valtteri Bottas would be giving up at Mercedes. Unlike his team-mate, Bottas has not made it to the top in what has clearly been the best team/car combination of the era.

So, assuming there is no dramatic fallout from the COVID-19 crisis that means his current team disappears, he would be leaving a guaranteed shot at the title for one that is not - with Ferrari's suggested deficit with the SF1000 baked in for another season due to the coronavirus cost-saving measures.

Bottas is understandably determined not to be a 'number two driver'

But it remains possible that Bottas, who has had to fight for his Mercedes future each year since joining for 2017, would want to leave for a fresh start while remaining in Class A.

But, like the idea of Vettel returning to Red Bull to partner Verstappen, he'd likely be walking out of the Lewis Hamilton frying pan and straight into Leclerc's fire.

He is understandably determined not to be a 'number two driver' - and just because a theory might make sense to those of us on the outside, these fiercely competitive individuals operate to different considerations.

The dreamers:

Lewis Hamilton

To explain the subheading above, it's not the potential protagonists who are the dreamers in this scenario, but us viewers - fans and observers alike - considering exciting line-ups for Ferrari.

First up, there's Hamilton. He has already established his reputation as an F1 great and can match Michael Schumacher's F1 title record if he wins the delayed 2020 season. Hamilton and Ferrari are both known to have considered this move already, but Ferrari indicating an extension with Vettel was its preferred options during winter testing (as well as Hamilton knowing what a good thing he has at Mercedes) cooled that possibility.

But Vettel's upcoming exit changes at least one side of that. Toto Wolff has already said that Vettel must be considered a potential asset to Mercedes, and so the reverse is equally true of Hamilton to Ferrari.

As the reigning world champion and F1's pre-eminent star, Hamilton has considerable power when it comes to negotiations - both over an extension with his current team or joining another. So, the question comes down to whether Hamilton wants to give up what he knows better than anyone is the best chance to add to his title haul at Mercedes, or make the move to Ferrari and likely end his career chasing the same dream Vettel has failed to realise so far.

Fernando Alonso

Like Hulkenberg, Fernando Alonso is a candidate on the F1 sidelines after leaving McLaren at the end of 2018. He's suggested he knows his plans for 2021 already, but it's not yet clear how much these have changed given today's announcement.

No matter how much logic or interpretation is applied from the outside, it is ultimately down to Ferrari who it wants to sign

The regulation changes that he has long said are the key to his potential return are now another year away, but the chance to jump back into a front running F1 team does not come about all that often and would likely close for 2022 anyway if it went to another candidate.

Then there's the factor that Alonso left Ferrari in some acrimony at the end of 2014, but there's also the fact that the regime he previously worked with has been replaced...

It seems like a long-shot for Alonso to come back with Ferrari, and while Vettel's move may open opportunities elsewhere, stranger things have happened.

Ferrari can take time to choose

No matter how much logic or interpretation is applied from the outside, it is ultimately down to Ferrari who it wants to sign.

Stability is going to be an increased asset in these hideously uncertain times, so a move to secure the services of Sainz, Ricciardo or Giovinazzi makes the most sense in terms of avoiding drawn-out negotiations and making an early start on planning for 2021.

But given there's no on-track action happening in the near future, it's worth taking the time to dream of just what fireworks would await if Ferrari picked up a second headline act to fight it out with Leclerc.