Why this BMW driver will win the BTCC

Neck on the block time: Andrew Jordan is going to win the British Touring Car Championship this season. Everything is right for him to mount a charge that will give him the ultimate prize at the end of the 30-race campaign, which kicks off at Brands Hatch this weekend.

The 2013 champion, now a 19-time race winner in the BTCC, will return for his second season in the WSR BMW 125i M Sport. It is a machine he raced for the first time last year and he won only one less race than his championship-chasing team-mate Colin Turkington.

Had it not been for a cruel electrical failure at Snetterton, where he was cruising to first place, he would have matched Turkington's victory count. There was also the Thruxton weekend in May, a track where Captain Car Control Jordan is normally king. He was all at sea with the set-up of the car and couldn't get it hooked up, which cost him a fistful of points.

Jordan and his father Mike (a former BTCC racer himself) have pointed out to me in the past that I used to keep mentioning the fact that the one-time title winner had switched teams three times in three years between '14 and '17.

They felt I was being unfair in pointing that out because other drivers had done the same thing. What they'd failed to spot was that none of the other competitors who had hopped teams were expected to be title contenders.

The pressure on Jordan is more sizeable precisely because he is a former champion and fans have seen just how good he can be. Jordan himself has underlined just how important consistency will be in 2018, and he really could be in the box seat.

The BMW is largely unchanged, apart from some damper and suspension set-up tweaks - although the car has a slightly heavier base weight. It will be 30kg heavier than the front-wheel-drive opposition in 2018, but it is still the envy of most other teams in the pitlane.

This year, for the first time since 2014, Jordan will be totally on top of the car he is driving because he has the same kit beneath him that he ended the previous season with. He has unlocked some of the secrets of a rear-wheel-drive BTCC car - don't forget, last year was his first season with that configuration - and he has a much better understanding of what makes it tick.

That means those weekends like he had at Thruxton last year should be eradicated. "It is about the consistency, that has to be my target," explains the 28-year-old. "There were some very big highs in 2017 but there were some lows too, which we need to get rid of.

"I am happy with the car, and my understanding of it. That Thruxton weekend was my first time in a rear-wheel-drive BTCC car at that circuit, and it has never been one that has been the strongest for BMW.

"That meant we were scratching our heads a little bit - but we will be in a much stronger place in 2018 because I will go with a bank of knowledge that I simply didn't have before.

"Even when I have been back to circuits in testing this year: I know there is less pressure at a test - but I am already more comfortable. It is about stuff like knowing when the tyres are going to come in and be ready to be leaned on.

"There were some very big highs in 2017 but there were some lows too, which we need to get rid of" Andrew Jordan

"There are lots of little things like that which you couldn't identify as a specific chunk of lap time gain, but they will all add up in the longer run."

One very big obstacle that Jordan needs to overcome is Turkington. The 2009 and '14 title winner remains alongside him as part of WSR's Team BMW arm, and a lot of the paddock insiders are tipping him as the big challenger this year.

Indeed, when our sister title Motorsport News asked ITV4's Paul O'Neill, Tim Harvey and David Addison for their title predictions, they all said, without hesitation, that the Northern Irishman was the 2018 champion in waiting.

While Turkington has the silky skills and the pace to battle at the very front, he hasn't come up against a truly on-form Jordan yet. This is going to be a fascinating intra-team battle for supremacy.

Aside from within his own team, the threats in the BTCC come from all angles and both Jordan and Turkington will be aware of that.

Firstly, there is the factory-backed Team Dynamics Honda Civics. The team, which has recently moved into new premises in Droitwich, has built a new-shape FK8 Civic for the 2018 season and has recruited Porsche convert Dan Cammish to replace the WTCR-bound Gordon Shedden.

Team boss and driver Matt Neal has said the car feels strong already, but there are some handling issues that could take the team a while to get on top of. On some of the venues it has tested at so far, it has flown. Others have not been so great so far.

Team BMR's Subaru had a very limited pre-season programme, and the operation looks a little unprepared

"As soon as I tried the new car, I didn't want to get back into the old one," explains Neal. "But we still have areas to look at. We have had understeer at some tracks which we are struggling to dial out, whereas we have been to others and it has felt planted straight away."

The level of expertise at Team Dynamics, including the car's designers Barry Plowman, Eddie Hinckley and Tom Hunt, means that it won't take the crew long to get on top of it, although ground lost at the start of a campaign could be impossible to make up.

Reigning champion Ash Sutton sat in his Team BMR Subaru Levorg at the BTCC's official pre-season test two weeks ago for the first time since winning the title at Brands Hatch in October last year. That initial run was a shakedown, and he and team-mates Jason Plato and Josh Price have also tested at Brands too.

That is a very limited pre-season programme, and the Hertfordshire operation looks a little unprepared. The team will switch to a Swindon Race Engines-prepared flat-four boxer motor this year, having used Mountune in the past.

However, Subaru was 0.8 seconds off the Honda's pace in the Brands Hatch test, which will be a cause for concern on such a short circuit.

Motorbase Performance has recruited former Independents Trophy winner Tom Chilton and 2016 overall runner-up Sam Tordoff to the driving strength alongside James Cole, and all three have been rapid in pre-season running. They will all be in restyled Ford Focus RS cars, and Motorbase has also ramped up its engineering backroom staff.

There have been changes in the background at Speedworks Motorsport too for Tom Ingram, with the team promoting from within and Spencer Aldridge now working alongside the reigning Independents Trophy holder.

Ingram was unlucky to be ruled out of the main title hunt last year due to some truly awful fortune, but Christian and Amy Dick's team has worked hard on the Toyota Avensis over the winter, with refinements to the suspension and weight distribution. He will set out with the target of improving on his third place overall last year.

Had Jack Goff had a better start to 2017, he could have pushed Ingram hard for the Independents Trophy. Once he clicked with the Eurotech Racing Honda Civic Type R, fitted with the bespoke Swindon BTCC TOCA motor, he was regularly the fastest driver and scored more poles than anyone else.

But that blend has been altered this year, with the Swindon engine ditched in favour of a Honda-derived powerplant previously used by the factory team.

"There were some people at the end of last year, when we were getting poles and winning, who said we were only doing that because we had the [bespoke BTCC TOCA] Swindon engine in the car," explains Goff.

"They overlooked the engineering we had done to the chassis, and there really wasn't that much difference in the powerplant. We hope to put them right this year. The team has looked closely at it and they would not have done this if it didn't think it was at least as good."

Another exciting new addition is the HMS Racing Alfa Romeo Giulietta of Rob Austin. It marks a huge step for Simon Belcher's team to go from running customer cars to building its own kit, but the initial running has been highly positive. Austin topped the times at the pre-season media day running at Donington Park and has yet to find the sweet spot with the stubby hatchback.

"We are scratching the surface," he explains. "We knew the car looked good on paper, and we are finding out that it is very good. But we haven't got the balance anywhere near where I would like it yet."

There will be a lot of people looking for answers when they take to the track at Brands Hatch on Saturday morning for the opening free practice session of the season.

Jordan knows that he answered most of his questions during 2017. Now it is time for him to put that knowledge to use.