Swedish Rally preview: One for the locals?

The Rally Finland is often described as the most 'specialised' event in the calendar, but two non-Nordic drivers - Carlos Sainz and Didier Auriol - have broken the locals' stranglehold there.

That has yet to happen in Sweden, and the snowy conditions that coated the countryside during recce and this afternoon's (Wednesday's) shakedown session are unlikely to help stars like Colin McRae, Richard Burns and Sainz as they try to score a breakthrough victory. Low temperatures will probably ensure that the road conditions remain icy, even if fresh snow fails to arrive.

On paper, last year's winner Marcus Gronholm will start as favourite for a repeat success when the cars hit the stages on Friday morning. The reigning world champion is an altogether stronger proposition than he was 12 months ago, and he was good enough to win then.

But his closest rival last year, Tommi Makinen, comes to Sweden on the back of a confidence-boosting win in Monte Carlo, and the revisions to his Mitsubishi's rear suspension are expected to make even more of a difference on 'loose' surfaces. Accordingly, the four-times world champion is a potent threat.

The Lancer brigade will be stronger than ever in Sweden, thanks to Mitsubishi's decision to add Thomas Radstrom to the squad. The local ace will be nominated for manufacturers' points (instead of Freddy Loix), but his focus is likely to rest on personal glory. He came close to a top three finish last year, at the wheel of a relatively old Toyota Corolla, so if he settles into his new mount quickly a podium place remains a possibility.

He's not the only Scandinavian to get a shot in decent machinery: Sweden marks the first of Harri Rovanpera's six scheduled outings in a Peugeot 206 WRC.

Of the Britons, McRae has much the stronger record in Sweden, but his and Burns's challenges depend heavily on how competitive Pirelli's latest tyres are against the Michelins that'll sit under Gronholm and Makinen.

If the Italian firm produces the goods, then the Focus already looks a strong proposition and McRae's biggest problem could be his team-mate. Sainz has finished second four times in Sweden.

Burns's mount, however, remains an unknown quantity - he struggled during the opening day of Monte Carlo, and none of the Subaru drivers had a chance to prove much before accidents or mechanical problems intervened.

In truth, though, compiling an accurate prediction after only Monte Carlo is nearly impossible. Only history --and the fact that the Swedish remains the last Scandinavian lock-out - offers a guide, and the pace of the WRC means that it's a pretty weak one.