Can Evans win the race to replace Rovanpera in WRC 2024?

The World Rally Championship is still reeling from the shock announcement that world champion Kalle Rovanpera has gone part-time for 2024. As the dust begins to settle, one thing is clear – the title race is set to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory.

There may only be a disappointing eight Rally1 cars on the entry list for this weekend’s Monte Carlo curtain-raiser, but the intrigue surrounding the title fight has rarely been higher thanks to Rovanpera’s mic drop at the end of 2023. The WRC’s 23-year-old superstar has seemingly forsaken the chance to go for a hat-trick of crowns to “recharge my batteries”. In the meantime, he will contest a half-season with Toyota, starting with round two in Sweden, before returning for a full-time championship attack in 2025.

This highly unusual decision has thrown the proverbial cat among the pigeons. Logic would dictate that last year’s championship runner-up, Elfyn Evans, is now the favourite to go one better and end Britain’s wait for a first champion since the late Richard Burns in 2001. But motorsport is hardly ever decided by logic and Evans, Toyota’s new team leader, is rightfully not getting carried away by the situation he now finds himself in.

“Of course [the title] is always the aim but we start on zero points, and you can take nothing for granted,” points out the eight-time WRC rally winner. “Everybody is improving all of the time. We can’t assume that because we ended 2023 on a high that things are going to be rosy in Monte. It’s going to be tough and we know the Hyundai is a strong car and they have a strong driver line-up with Ott [Tanak] and Thierry [Neuville]. It’s definitely going to be difficult.

“The championship is very open in terms of how competitive it is and anybody in the top-flight cars can be on the podium almost on every rally. So even though there aren’t as many cars as we would like in the premier class, it still doesn’t mean that the speed is any less. It’s still very difficult to reach the end of the weekend victorious.”

But there is every reason to believe that the Welshman will be locked in to the 2024 title fight. His Toyota team has produced the car to beat since the launch of the hybrid Rally1 era, and last year, such was its dominance, the GR Yaris won nine of the 13 rounds. The reigning manufacturers’ champion has continued to refine its machine during the off-season.

Photo by: McKlein / Motorsport Images

Evans ended 2023 on a high with victory in Japan, and will hope to continue that form into the new campaign

“As we know the regulations are tight in terms of scope for development, but of course the team is always working to improve and there hasn’t been a huge change since Japan [scene of the 2023 finale],” adds Evans. “We are always working on little steps but there has been no huge revolution, but of course everyone is working all the time and continually improving.”

But Toyota and Evans are likely to face an even stronger challenge from Hyundai, which has focused on addressing its i20 N’s reliability concerns, as well as shaving weight from its challenger. The South Korean marque has also added extra firepower to its driver line-up in the shape of 2019 world champion Tanak, who rejoins the fold after a year at M-Sport. A hungry Tanak joining five-time championship runner-up Neuville means that the team now has two drivers in the fight for the title against Evans.

In addition to Hyundai’s clear effort to wrestle the titles away from Toyota, there is also the WRC’s radical new points system that has already divided opinion. Evans has made it clear that he’s not a fan of the new format, designed to spice up Sundays by adding a new tactical element to events. The unknowns surrounding exactly how to extract the most from the WRC’s move to split the distribution of championship points across Saturday and Sunday remains to be seen.

"The difficulty now is he is a little bit alone in our team now fighting for the title. When you know you have a team-mate who is also fighting for the title it is boosting yourself to do a better performance, and now he is missing that" Jari-Matti Latvala

One aspect that appears to be in Evans’s favour is the GR Yaris itself. He struggled to adjust to its demands in 2022, a season that Evans ended winless. But last year he managed to unlock its pace, resulting in wins in Croatia, Finland and Japan, and was closer to Rovanpera. A continuation of this will be essential for a serious title bid.

“Of course, 2023 was a nice progression from the struggles we had in 2022 – that was a positive but when you’re not winning you’re never really that happy,” admits Evans. “But still I scored three wins, which is the most for me in a season. I think it shows that we’re moving in the right direction and of course we want more in 2024, but it’s not going to be easy to achieve that as we know the competition is tough. But I’m ready to give it our best shot.”

Evans is most certainly ready, despite a rocky off-season that created headlines courtesy of a bike accident that injured his ribs. It forced him to miss December’s FIA Gala and sit out a test in order to recover. But recover he has. The clean bill of health was confirmed by a successful pre-event Monte Carlo test.

“The feeling is getting better all of the time,” he affirms. “It was not the ideal off-season, but nonetheless we’re over the worst of it and the feeling in the car is fine, so that’s the important thing and that will be the last we need to hear about it now.”

Photo by: Toyota Racing

Evans has been in testing action since his bike accident that injured his ribs

With no concerns over his health, there are two big questions facing Evans this year. The first is, will he cope as Toyota team leader? The 35-year-old is one of the coollest and calmest characters in the service park. It seems that only something seismic can shake such a focused, meticulous and determined character.

Evans has faced plenty of pressure from being involved in title fights before, and is now one of the most experienced in the service park. There’s no doubt that extra pressure will naturally come from being team leader, but it’s nothing he can’t handle, according to his Toyota team boss Jari-Matti Latvala.

“Yes, he is coping with the pressure well – you rarely see him showing emotions or anger,” reckons Latvala. “Sometimes you might see him a bit nervous during an event, which is when he is very quiet, but he is concentrating also. His concentration is one of the highest I would say in the championship. He is always in a mode where he wants to concentrate 110%.”

The second question is whether Evans is ready to take a world title. Finishing runner-up in three of the past four seasons suggests he’s more than ready to make the next step. In 2020 and 2021 he lost out to arguably the greatest driver in the championship’s history in Ogier, while last year he was edged by once-in-a-generation talent Rovanpera. Neither will be contesting the full campaign. Latvala is adamant that his driver has the ingredients to succeed, but believes the fact that Rovanpera isn’t doing a full season could actually harm Evans’s bid.

“He is definitely ready, there is no question,” adds Latvala. “For me, the difficulty now is he is a little bit alone in our team now fighting for the title. When you know you have a team-mate who is also fighting for the title it is boosting yourself to do a better performance, and now he is missing that and fighting with two guys [Tanak and Neuville] who are getting support from a third driver.

“I think the pressure in that sense will be pretty high to try and win the title. To win a title you also need some luck. He has all the elements, but he needs things to go in the right way with luck as well.”

Latvala’s point is a valid one when you consider Hyundai’s line-up and the fact that Toyota’s second full-time pilot Takamoto Katsuta is still developing and is yet to record a WRC win. It has resulted in Latvala admitting that the manufacturers’ championship is Toyota’s priority, a stark opposite to the view of Hyundai boss Cyril Abiteboul, who declared the drivers’ title as the number one goal.

Photo by: Toyota Racing

Evans has the full backing of his team boss Latvala as he guns for a first world title

“Of course, our cards on the table are a bit different than previous seasons when we’ve had two drivers being able to fight for the championship and we have only one now,” reflects Latvala. “It is one against two Hyundais.

“At Hyundai the third-driver role is to support the other two drivers, and in our team we are more concentrated on a fair fight, so that is why we have to adjust our approach. The first target is to try and get the manufacturers’ title and if we achieve the drivers’ title that is a massive bonus. We are realistic and we know it is going to be a lot more difficult to achieve the drivers’ title this year than in previous years.”

While in Latvala’s eyes the drivers’ title is a bonus, becoming world champion will be Evans’s primary objective, and this year is perhaps his best opportunity yet to join the pantheon of WRC champions. Given the expected challenge from Hyundai, a world title will be thoroughly deserved and every bit as difficult to secure, despite Rovanpera’s absence.

Will 2024 end the long wait for a Hyundai driver to win the drivers’ crown?

Kalle Rovanpera’s decision not to contest the full season may have eliminated a title contender, but Thierry Neuville believes that the championship fight will be just as tough in 2024.

"When I left, I gave them the message, ‘If you have this fixed then give me a call and we can work together.’ They have done everything we spoke about" Ott Tanak

The five-time WRC runner-up will not only face a challenge from Toyota’s Elfyn Evans, but will have to deal with a renewed threat from within the Hyundai team following the return of Ott Tanak. One aspect that is universal in all forms of motorsport is that drivers always want to beat their team-mates, and on this occasion it will be crucial for his title hopes.

“I mean, the job is still the same and if Kalle is out, Ott will be in for sure,” predicts Neuville. “I’ve always said that when Ott is in the team it was an extra motivation to push. With Ott I have had three years working with him and it has never been a real issue and we have been performing well. I don’t see any issue for the future, especially with the team structure and the management in place.

“I have always been hungry for the title. I have more chance in the upcoming years than I have had in the past, except maybe 2018 when we were very close. We know how to do it. We have set up the team as such to take out the maximum, so I think we have better chances this year for sure. But the fight will be tough again. There is no reason why it should be much easier than other years.”

Photo by: Hyundai

Neuville expects the return of Tanak to the Hyundai fold will give him extra impetus

One area that could hinder Hyundai’s charge is the i20 N, which Neuville feels is yet to perform to his liking on asphalt.

“There are some points to improve but on gravel we are really close to something very good, but on Tarmac for me it is not how I would like it,” he warns.

There can be no doubting Tanak’s hunger for a second title. It’s the very reason why he’s opted to rejoin Hyundai – he has been convinced that the the factors that prompted his departure in 2022 with a year remaining on his contract have been resolved. After a challenging 2023 at M-Sport, the 2019 champion believes that this new-look Hyundai, under the leadership of Cyril Abiteboul and technical director Francois-Xavier Demaison, can deliver.

“We had all the people but we didn’t have the structure [in 2022],” says Tanak. “Structure-wise and general approach-wise, a lot has changed. We have a team principal, we have a technical director, and things are starting to take shape. When I left, I gave them the message, ‘If you have this fixed then give me a call and we can work together.’ They have done everything we spoke about. The vision and how to achieve things seems to be quite clear.”

Tanak will once again be in the same machinery as Neuville, fighting for the same outright goal in their intra-team battle. In three years together across 2020-22, Tanak beat Neuville 2-1 in terms of championship positions.

“For sure, there will be some competition and it can get a bit more spicy and interesting but previously we were still able to work together,” concludes the Estonian. “It will be quite intense but I’m sure it will work out.”

One of the key storylines will be how Abiteboul can manage his two stars.

“When the season starts there will be absolute parity of parts, information, opportunity and contractual rights and privilege to both drivers,” states Abiteboul. “We have identified a milestone during the season where we will review the situation and possibly change our internal code of conduct. The drivers are aware of this.

“There will be conflict, there will be tension and I’m doing everything I can do now [to address this]. I’m not waiting for Monte Carlo or later in the season to discuss our strategy.”

Photo by: Romain Thuillier / Hyundai Motorsport

Tanak returns to a different Hyundai team than the one he left in 2022

M-Sport’s young guns ready to fire

M-Sport has reshuffled its pack for 2024, opting for a young driver line-up that it hopes can cause some upsets aboard its Ford Pumas. The British squad scored two victories last year through star signing Ott Tanak, but ultimately a mixture of misfortune and reliability issues ended a partnership that promised so much, with the Estonian rejoining Hyundai for 2024.

Replacing such a big name as Tanak is difficult. Talks were held with several drivers, including three-time World Rally winner Andreas Mikkelsen, before the Norwegian opted to join Hyundai to pilot the third car alongside Esapekka Lappi and Dani Sordo. In the end, M-Sport promoted Adrien Fourmaux and Gregoire Munster from its WRC2 programme.

A second crack at piloting a Puma full-time in the WRC’s top tier is a just reward for Fourmaux, who impressed after being demoted to Rally2 last year, following a challenging 2022 littered with errors.
“It was my goal last year to get back in the Puma for a full season so I’m really happy to be back in the Rally1,” smiles Fourmaux, who dominated last year’s British Rally Championship. “Now we have to do our best to get the most out of it.”

"[Fourmaux] is a lot stronger mentally and has better driving consistency. But we’ve also got to be sensible and think about consistent results over this year" Richard Millener

Munster’s opportunity follows Puma Rally1 outings in Chile and Central Europe last year. He finished the latter in seventh, and that impressed the team.

“I’m eager to start in Monte Carlo, and the goal for 2024 will be first to get some good results and increase the pace rally after rally and try not to make any mistakes,” says the 25-year-old.

While the line-up is relatively inexperienced, M-Sport team principal Richard Millener believes that podiums are not out of the question this year: “I don’t think we would be doing our job properly if we said we were not aiming for a podium.

“Adrien has a point that he wants to prove and we look forward to seeing how he will go. He is a lot stronger mentally and has better driving consistency. But we’ve also got to be sensible and think about consistent results over this year as not everyone is doing a full season. It does actually give us an opportunity to cause some upsets.

“Gregoire had a good season with us last year and knows the team very well. I think it’s exciting to have two youngsters in the team.”

M-Sport has addressed some of the reliability issues with its Puma and intends to debut a new rear wing later this year.

Photo by: JEP / Motorsport Images

Fresh from winning the BRC, Fourmaux will hope to spring a surprise on his Rally1 return at M-Sport