Why the most significant Le Mans MotoGP performance wasn't Miller's

Five years split Jack Miller’s first and second MotoGP victories. Having found redemption two weeks ago at Jerez following a poor start to life as a factory Ducati team rider in 2021, Miller only had to wait a fortnight for his third premier class win. Insert whatever lazy London bus analogy you like here, but it’s clear the Australian is starting to unleash his true form.

For the first time in four years MotoGP witnessed a flag-to-flag race, as Sunday’s French Grand Prix started off dry before rain necessitated a bike swap in the early stages.

Sketchy conditions are where Miller tends to revel. He took his first MotoGP pole in quite stunning fashion on a damp track with slick tyres in Argentina in 2018 and won his first premier class race at Assen, also in the wet.

“I don’t know, I push quite hard in these conditions as you’ve seen in the past, and also this weekend I crash quite often in these conditions,” Miller answered when asked why he is often a favourite in tricky conditions. “I don’t mind when the bike is moving, I feel like I’m able to take the grip and understand it more or less.

“If it’s coming from a motocross background, I don’t know. Growing up doing this and not really doing any road racing… I mean, immediately when I first rode a road bike in Australian Championship in the wet, I was fast straight away.”

Arguably his victory drought should have ended last October during the wet Le Mans race, but for the need to switch to his wet bike – which was carrying a known issue – before the start dooming his hopes from the off.

As a result, Miller came into this year’s Le Mans round “with a score to settle”. In the first laps on slick tyres of Sunday’s race, Miller duelled with the Yamaha duo of Fabio Quartararo and Maverick Vinales, but his Le Mans curse looked set to continue when he locked up at the Blue esses on lap five and ran into the gravel as the rain intensified.

Race winner Jack Miller, Ducati Team

Photo by: Dorna

Running second to Quartararo at that point, he re-joined in fourth but 7.9s behind the leaders as he entered pitlane for his swap. More drama would follow as he was caught speeding in pitlane, copping him and team-mate Francesco Bagnaia – recovering from 16th on the grid – double long-lap penalties.

“I rode out and saw Marc [Marquez] leading, Fabio second and thought I was one for a podium at least,” Miller said after the race. “I’d already hoped on my other bike and could see them all coming in together to change. So, I knew I had a decent gap, I was even catching Marc and Fabio. When I saw the first long lap I thought, ‘Ah, that’s it, done’. But then I actually didn’t believe it for the first two laps. I thought, ‘Nah, they must have the wrong number up’.”

Miller opted for the soft wet rear rain tyre at his stop, while Marquez and Quartararo ahead went for the medium. If the track dried out quickly, the medium runners would have been in the box seat as the soft would have chewed itself into oblivion. As it turned out, the water on track at that point was significant enough to justify the soft and Miller was much quicker than Quartararo and Marquez.

"It’s the best Ducati so far for sure. I think they’re finally getting the fruits of their labour. They’ve been working their butts off for a lot of years to get this thing to where it is, and it shows" Jack Miller

Had Marquez stayed on his bike at Turn 14 at the end of lap eight, the afternoon may well have turned out differently as the Honda rider had already pulled two seconds clear at the front. But the door was now wide open for Miller to come through – even with two long lap penalties to serve, the Australian losing very little time serving them on laps nine and 10 to Quartararo, the average pace difference at that point 1.6s per lap.

Miller carved through to the lead again at the downhill La Chapelle right-hander on lap 12, while Quartararo headed for the penalty loop having been penalised for bizarrely stopping in the wrong side of his Yamaha box during the bike swap.

“I arrived into the pitlane, I was looking at the numbers on the ground and I was first going to [Enea] Bastianini’s box,” Quartararo explained. “Then I said ‘no, it’s not this one’, I turned into the correct one but stopped by the wrong bike.”

Miller quickly put over four seconds between himself and Quartararo to cruise to the chequered flag, despite having a tyre not optimal for the drying conditions in the closing stages.

Fabio Quartararo, Yamaha Factory Racing, flag to flag bike swap

Photo by: Dorna

Now just 16 points off the championship lead, Miller’s win at Le Mans is a crucial one. Not because of the championship picture, but because it backed up a theory many believed after Jerez – that if he could get the monkey off his back and go forward without that pressure of expectation dragging him down, then Miller’s speed will carry him to more top results consistently.

It’s a result that’s also testament to the strength of the 2021 Ducati. Though the Italian marque hasn’t been able to do much to its bike over the winter owing to COVID cost-saving measures, it’s clearly made small-but-significant gains. Aside from the Yamaha, it’s the only other bike to have been on the podium at every race so far in 2021.

This is form Ducati didn’t have in 2020 – largely a consequence of the change in rear tyre construction, though this never was an issue for Miller, Bagnaia – who minimised the damage to his championship lead in fourth – or Johann Zarco, who made it back-to-back Ducati 1-2s in 2021.

“I think it’s the best Ducati so far for sure,” Miller said. “I think they’re finally getting the fruits of their labour. They’ve been working their butts off for a lot of years to get this thing to where it is, and it shows. For me they’re the hardest working manufacturer there is and I’m super happy for them and super proud to be working for them and to be giving them these results after the work they’ve put in.”

Zarco believes his chances of victory were dashed in the first four laps after the bike swap as he lost too much time to the leaders. But philosophically, he felt being angry about a missed home win would be wrong in the context of the championship battle, in which he currently sits third and 12 points off the lead.

But if Le Mans confirmed Miller’s credentials as a serious title challenger and Ducati having brought its best bike for a long time to the party, then it also revealed something that should have the Italian manufacturer seriously worried.

All weekend Yamaha riders voiced concerns about the wet conditions. If the race was to be fully dry, they had little concern about their pace. If it was to be wet, victory may have been trickier but a solid result was there. If it was half-and-half, it was time to panic. In the drying conditions of FP3, top Yamaha was Maverick Vinales in 16th, while Quartararo was only 19th as the struggled for traction on their M1s.

Race winner Jack Miller, Ducati Team

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

At the wet Le Mans race last year, Quartararo plummeted from pole to a lowly ninth when the rain fell in his first wet weather MotoGP contest. In such a tight championship battle, marrying strong dry results with poor wet form is inconsistency that can prove fatal to title hopes.

Had it not been for Marquez’s crash and perhaps even that of second-placed Alex Rins as he left pitlane, Quartararo may not have seen the podium given the pace of Miller and Zarco - and the fact his soft wet front deteriorated when it dried. But even a top six result would have marked a serious turnaround in Yamaha's wet form. That he emerged with an unexpected podium - not least following recent arm surgery - to regain the championship lead by a point from Bagnaia was a crucial bonus.

When asked if his upturn in wet form has flicked a switch in his mind, Quartararo said: “I think so because in the really wet conditions we were not the best but we were between seventh and 10th. But in the mixed conditions we were more like between 15th and 18th and today were those conditions.

“We made a step, in the race I was pushing a lot, I had a lot of moments in the beginning of the race to warm up the tyres. So, I think in the beginning it was correct to have the soft/soft, but in the end I was struggling a lot. It’s great to make a podium in those conditions, so I’m really happy and I think for the future it will help a lot.”

The fact Quartararo has emerged from Le Mans with the championship lead again isn’t insignificant – but even more so is that he now looks to have strengthened his game overall, marrying his superb dry pace on the 2021 Yamaha with form decent enough in wet conditions to avoid 2020-level disaster races

Quartararo conceded on Saturday he wouldn’t be on pole for long if the race was wet, but wanted to use the opportunity to learn. And he came away from Le Mans with some valuable knowledge.

“With Johann I could see a little bit because he was much faster than me,” he noted. “But the way they pick up the bike, the way they turn… let’s say, I want to pick up the bike too early to have better drive, but then my drive is not good and they wait a little bit more. I could also try during the race, and I could see it was a big improvement from my side.”

What helped Quartararo’s cause too, as noted by team-mate Vinales – who was left in 10th after an early mistake lost him focus – was his “courage” on slick tyres in the rain to still be in that lead group come the pitstops.

Fabio Quartararo, Yamaha Factory Racing Jack Miller, Ducati Team

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

Autosport asked both Miller and Zarco if Quartararo’s wet form was a concern. They both brushed this off, but Zarco made a key point: “Today we got lucky to get some rain, because Fabio was ready to go away and it’s true that his pace improved a lot in the wet, he has been very impressive today. But when you fight for a world title you have to be good everywhere, so today the step he did is pretty important for him.”

Quartararo’s lead in the championship would be a bit healthier than one point, had it not been for his Jerez arm-pump issue dropping from a nailed-on win to 13th. Based on past form, the weather at Le Mans threatened to put him further in arrears – which would have stung when you consider the nightmare both Suzuki riders had in qualifying outside of the top 12 before crashing in the race, with Bagnaia having to come through from 16th.

The fact Quartararo has emerged from Le Mans with the championship lead again isn’t insignificant – but even more so is that he now looks to have strengthened his game overall, marrying his superb dry pace on the 2021 Yamaha with form decent enough in wet conditions to avoid 2020-level disaster races.

His Le Mans rostrum may also prove crucial come the next round at Mugello. A Ducati stronghold since 2017, it’s unlikely a Yamaha will see the top step of the podium given its power deficit to the Desmosedici.

The 2021 French GP has undoubtedly solidified Ducati’s position as a genuine title contender in 2021 with Miller, Zarco and Bagnaia at this stage. But it now appears the threat Quartararo poses has gotten even greater.

Jack Miller, Ducati Team Fabio Quartararo, Yamaha Factory Racing

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images