What factory Yamaha exit means for Rossi

"He knows changes aren't permanent, but change is". So wrote late, great Rush drummer Neil Peart in the band's iconic 1981 song 'Tom Sawyer'. It's a line that also sums up Valentino Rossi's MotoGP career.

Like most, he has gone through soaring career highs, and crushing lows, during his time in grand prix racing. But unlike most, it was always a guarantee that Rossi would be back - at the sharp end and on the grid, no matter what happened.

Change is inevitable, though; it is unstoppable. And eventually the day would come where there would be no place on the grid for the nine-time world champion.

Yamaha announced it had retained Maverick Vinales for two more years earlier this week, signalling the first major deal of what is expected to be a wild 2021 rider market, as all current factory contracts come to a close at the end of the year.

On Wednesday, Autosport broke the news that Fabio Quartararo - the 2019 wunderkind - would be joining Vinales at Yamaha's works team in 2021, with the marque confirming it later that day.

In the space of 48 hours, it appears that day for Rossi - the day where there's no place on the grid - is now closer than it has ever been.

The uncomfortable truth is Yamaha had no choice. Rossi's place in motorsport legend is in no doubt, and without his irresistible charm - and ruthless nature on track - MotoGP would not be enjoying the popularity it currently is and be in the healthiest state it has ever been. And he'll have single-handedly shifted more Yamaha road bikes out of dealerships than any other rider the Japanese marque has employed in its time.

But Yamaha's prime directive in MotoGP is to win. With Rossi, it hasn't done so since the 2017 Dutch TT, and his last title was in 2009. In that time, Jorge Lorenzo secured three with Yamaha, while Vinales has conjured up six victories in the time it took Rossi to win once.

Last year, a new star entered Yamaha's fold. Quartararo stormed to seven podiums on the customer Petronas SRT M1, and regularly emerged from a grand prix weekend as the manufacturer's leading rider alongside Vinales. Crucially, both were occasionaly able to run with MotoGP's unstoppable force Marc Marquez.

Rossi, meanwhile, managed just two podiums and seventh in the standings behind Quartararo (fifth) and Vinales (third).

The Italian's form over the last few years can in some part be blamed on the lacklustre machinery Yamaha has been providing. But even with that, Rossi has been a shade of the rider he once was since his failed 2015 title bid - which now, more than ever, looks as though it was his final throw of the championship dice. Whether that's a legacy of the late-season meltdown he suffered when he started accusing Lorenzo and Marquez of conspiracy to sabotage will be something debated for years to come.

After last year, Vinales and Quartararo were two of the big-ticket names and most likely had some big offers from rival manufacturers either on the table or being drawn up

In previous contract cycles, Rossi has pretty much been assured a place at Yamaha if he wanted it. Marquez was not exactly a realistic option for Yamaha, and it looked like Vinales's arrival in 2017 and his renewal in 2018 would eventually yield big results. Machinery woes and a Vinales not yet capable of operating a more reserved, methodical approach stunted this, but it meant Yamaha could happily stick with Rossi, reaping the marketing benefits his presence had, while potentially winning the lottery in this respect if he did win a championship.

But Rossi turns 41 this year, and he has never quite committed to the idea of extending his current deal by a further two years. A one-year contract would put Yamaha out of sync with the rest of the factory deals. Rossi has also always maintained he would only make a decision after a handful of races to see where he stacks up in the pecking order.

That is time Yamaha simply didn't have.

'Silly season' has moved earlier and earlier in recent years, meaning most deals are penned in the winter now, with decisions on a rider generally based on their previous season form rather than what they're achieving in the present. After last year, Vinales and Quartararo are two of the grid's biggest ticket items and most likely had some big offers from rival manufacturers either on the table or being drawn up.

Vinales, for example, had Ducati links which refused to go away, with the Italian marque failing to quell such speculation by admitting he was an option. At Ducati's 2020 launch event, CEO Claudio Domenicali said having Italian riders wasn't a priority.

As the Desmosedici is now a bike moving in a development direction steered by Jorge Lorenzo during his time with the team, a Ducati switch for Yamaha riders is no longer as big a risk as it used to be. So, while it is not known how much interest Ducati truly had in Vinales - or indeed Quartararo - both would have been under some serious consideration at least. Suzuki is rumoured to have had some major interest as well.

Whatever the truth, the fact is Yamaha had to move to secure a line-up which looks to have the potential to challenge Marquez.

In a statement issued by Yamaha, Rossi says Yamaha asked him to make a decision at the start of the year. But he stuck to his guns, and now both parties will wait until the middle of 2020 before making a call.

Of course, Rossi may still end up on the MotoGP grid in 2021. He recently didn't dismiss the idea of switching to SRT if it meant prolonging his career. After all, it's a well-run team and with excellent support, and Yamaha has committed to offering Rossi a full factory bike and engineering support should he ultimately want to continue in MotoGP with the marque.

This development all but confirms he would be in SRT colours in 2021 if does stick with Yamaha - though a possible rebranding to bring his own VR46 team name onto the premier class grid isn't out of the realms of possibility.

Perhaps things would've been different had Marquez not arrived on the scene in 2013. But he did, and only now will Yamaha have a rider pairing that looks like it could finally topple him

The optics of a nine-time world champion, once operating essentially under factory protection, stepping down to a satellite team does still leave a lot to be desired though - especially one that clearly still harbours title ambitions, but is unlikely to produce anything more than a win if the conditions are absolutely perfect for it.

So maybe the timing is right for Rossi to bow out. He's been pushed out of the factory team, but with an SRT move a possibility, retiring now would mean he can still leave on his own terms - not something many true greats in motorsport get to do.

Rossi holds the belief that he could extend his career by at least a decade once he's quit MotoGP by taking to four wheels - a passion of his, and something's he's pretty handy at as his multiple Monza Rally victories, 2019 Gulf 12 Hours class win (pictured below) and impressive Formula 1 tests have proven. Highest on his list is to contest the Le Mans 24 Hours. Next year could be the best time for it.

Endurance racing is no easy discipline to jump into, especially at the level the World Endurance Championship operates at. But 2021 brings in a radical new formula for the top tier with the introduction of the LM Hypercar formula.

Rossi could find himself with a plum factory ride if he's serious. And with WEC's most recent star attraction, double F1 world champion Fernando Alonso, not committing to a programme this season and seriously evaluating a return to F1 for 2021, the WEC would benefit hugely from Rossi becoming one of its main draws.

Regardless of what happens with Rossi, it's clear a new mentality has enveloped Yamaha, and it is much needed.

Yamaha has got a lot out of Rossi. His arrival in 2004 dramatically turned around its fortunes after a winless 2003 and transformed it into the powerhouse MotoGP team of the 2000s. Though his second stint hasn't been as fruitful, Yamaha has still gained a lot commercially from Rossi.

Perhaps things would have been different since 2013 had Marquez not arrived on the scene. But he did.

No matter how important Rossi is to the brand, as shown by its willingness to make this new arrangement and respect his wishes to be afforded time to decide, ultimately moving him out of the works team was necessary if Yamaha truly wants to be a winner again.