The Autosport.com 2006 Gamble

Matt Bishop (MBi)

1. Alonso; 2. Raikkonen; 3. Button; 4. Montoya; 5. M.Schumacher

1. McLaren; 2. Renault; 3. Honda; 4. Ferrari; 5. Toyota

This year, what with the arrival of 2.4-litre V8s and the return of tyre-changing, predicting F1 winners is harder than ever before. So the only thing I'm utterly sure of is that what I'm about to write will be wrong. Anyway, here goes.

Fernando Alonso will win the drivers' championship again because (a) the Renault R26 has shown itself to be both fast and reliable in winter testing, and (b) you have to go all the way back to 1998, the year in which Mika Hakkinen won his first title, to find the last season in which a reigning world champion (Jacques Villeneuve, the 1997 victor) failed to achieve multiple titles. These days, F1 success breeds F1 success like never before.

Kimi Raikkonen will be second for the same reasons as he was second last year (freakish natural pace in a very quick car, tempered by less than adequate engine reliability), while Honda and Jenson Button (who will shade Rubens Barrichello by a small but steady margin all year) will be consistently best of the rest.

Ferrari and Toyota will be reliable and fast-ish, too, but both will be stymied by their inferior Bridgestone rubber. Jarno Trulli will beat Ralf Schumacher, while Michael Schumacher (a flat-out, but frustrated, fifth in my list) will annihilate Felipe Massa.

Tony Dodgins (TD)

1. Alonso; 2. M.Schumacher; 3. Button; 4. Raikkonen; 5. Fisichella

1. Renault; 2. Honda; 3. McLaren; 4. Ferrari; 5. Toyota

Fernando Alonso and Renault both sound mighty confident about the package they have heading into the '06 season. And if you look at winter testing there's a temptation to believe that the chief Bridgestone runners (Ferrari, Toyota and Williams) could start with a tyre disadvantage.

But you have to remember that summer track temperatures bear little relation to winter ones. Looking back at Bridgestone performance in '04, which is relevant, it's hard to believe that Michael Schumacher will not be pushing hard to take his crown back.

McLaren will be quick but, as last year, there could be some early season fragility which would be just as hard to overcome. That's why Kimi is down in fourth slot. Button is strong, so is Barrichello, and Honda appear to be reliable, which is why I think they might pip McLaren. But I'm prepared for an eggy face...

Damien Smith (DS)

1. Raikkonen; 2. M.Schumacher; 3. Alonso; 4. Montoya; 5. Button

1. McLaren; 2. Renault; 3. Ferrari; 4. Honda; 5. Toyota

This will be the year McLaren will finally get it all together - surely. Raikkonen has all the attributes of a world champion, and if the McLaren-Mercedes is reliable - and I'm taking a punt here that finally it will be - he'll finally be able to deliver.

Schumacher and Ferrari will bounce back, just shading Alonso who will put up a valiant defence of his title. He will be affected by his McLaren deal for 2007, but Fernando and Fisichella will allow Renault to get the better of Ferrari - Massa won't score enough points.

Montoya will push enough points McLaren's way, but a championship challenge sustained over the season? No. Meanwhile, Honda will just edge the battle of the Japanese giants. Both could be race winners.

Dieter Rencken (DR)

1. M.Schumacher; 2. Raikkonen; 3. Alonso; 4. Trulli; 5. Barrichello

1. McLaren; 2. Renault; 3. Ferrari; 4. Toyota ; 5. Honda

What with all the uncertainty surrounding tyres, V8s, new pairings and yet another peculiar qualifying procedure, we appear to be heading for the most open season in ten or so years.

Ferrari will, despite early faltering, build up to a sufficiently good head of steam to deliver Michael's eighth title, but by whisker from Kimi - who, too, will be backfooted by McLaren's seemingly traditional early season maladies before matters settle down.

As he did last year, Fernando will grab an early upper hand; unlike that season, the better-facilitated drivers will catch and pass him before season's end.

Toyota will be thereabouts after adjusting to their Bridgestone's characteristics, with Jarno taking the team's maiden win, while Rubinho will deliver same for new-look Honda - probably in streaming weather.

Jonathan Noble (JN)

1. Alonso; 2. M.Schumacher; 3. Fisichella; 4. Button; 5. Montoya

1. Renault; 2. McLaren; 3. Honda; 4. Ferrari; 5. Toyota

This is a really tough one to predict this year. Although pre-season testing indicates that Renault have maintained their advantage from last year, and maybe even extended it, behind them it is much tougher to decide where everyone stands. How about this, then? Michael Schumacher will be back to his best, Jenson Button will revel in a competitive Honda and Juan Pablo Montoya will knuckle down to get the best out of the McLaren.

Alan Baldwin (AB)

1. Alonso; 2. Raikkonen; 3. Button; 4. M.Schumacher; 5. Montoya

1. Renault; 2. Honda; 3. McLaren; 4. Ferrari; 5. Toyota

After failing to tip Alonso last year, maybe I am going too far the other way in predicting he will win again. But this year is going to be so close it's anyone's guess. Schumacher for an eighth title? Don't rule it out. Maybe Kimi will finally get what he deserves.

If Honda are as quick as they look in testing, Button and Barrichello could both be winners. I go for Renault to defend the title but it will be very close. Honda, McLaren and Ferrari will all be a threat. I expect Toyota to win a race and hope Williams will prove to be surprisingly competitive.

Pablo Elizalde (PE)

1. Raikkonen; 2. Alonso; 3. M.Schumacher; 4. Barrichello; 5. Montoya

1. McLaren; 2. Renault; 3. Honda; 4. Ferrari; 5. Williams

Not an easy season for a gamble... Honda are looking very strong, but I doubt their drivers will be up for a title fight; Renault are fast and reliable, but I fear Alonso leaving for McLaren will hurt them; Ferrari have Schumacher, but their car doesn't seem to be a match for the Renault or the Honda; and McLaren have had so many problems with their engine over the winter that it is hard to know if their car is ready to complete a race distance.

Still, I believe McLaren and Mercedes are a step ahead when it comes to development over a year and that will pay off this season, especially with the close competition expected. That's why I'm putting my money on Raikkonen, despite expecting him to have another slow start.

Tim Redmayne (TR)

1. M.Schumacher; 2. Alonso; 3. Raikonen; 4. Montoya; 5. Rosberg

1. Renault; 2. McLaren; 3. Ferrari; 4. Red Bull Racing; 5. Honda

I believe that Ferrari and Michael Schumacher will bounce back to form this year, largely helped by the new tyre regulations closing the gap between Bridgestone and Michelin. When Schumacher wins the title he will retire and leave Maranello and Formula One for good.

McLaren's engine uncertainties are too much of a concern already for the team to be a serious title contender and Fernando Alonso will not be able to win as much as Schumacher this season. Nico Rosberg and Williams will surprise with at least one victory.

Renault will have the strongest driver pairing and will claim their second consecutive title mainly because Felipe Massa will not score strongly enough to lift Ferrari up to top spot.

Richard Barnes (RB)

1. Raikkonen; 2. M.Schumacher; 3. Alonso; 4. Button; 5.Montoya

1. McLaren; 2. Ferrari; 3. Renault; 4. Honda; 5. Toyota

Can Schumacher and Ferrari bounce back? Yes, they will - but not enough to deny McLaren and Kimi Raikkonen, after the near misses in 2003 and 2005. Reigning champion Fernando Alonso will put up a spirited defence of his title, but will succumb to the Schumacher-Raikkonen battle. McLaren's no. 2 driver Juan Pablo Montoya is stronger than his Ferrari counterpart Felipe Massa, so the Woking outfit will pip Ferrari for the Constructors' title.

Bruce Thomson (BT)

1. Alonso; 2. M.Schumacher; 3. Barrichello; 4. Montoya; 5. Raikkonen

1. Renault; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Honda; 5. BMW

Alonson will be hard to beat this year. He's on top form and seems, in pre-season testing, to have a great car under him again. Ferrari should bounce back, but I don't see Massa giving Schumacher too much trouble. Barrichello will do well at Honda, and may be an unwelcome surprise to Button.

Finally, I suspect that in spite of their undoubted speed, Raikkonen and Montoya will again be hampered by an unreliable package. Look for Jacques Villeneuve to finish on the podiom this season!

Matt Beer (MBe)

1. Alonso; 2. Raikkonen; 3. Barrichello; 4. Montoya; 5. Button

1. McLaren; 2. Renault; 3. Honda; 4. Williams; 5. Ferrari

Unless recent test form is deceptive, Renault will be the early season pacesetters again, and Fernando Alonso is now a proven champion - capable of accumulating consistent podiums, and of dipping into reserves of heroism when necessary.

McLaren will surely come good in time, but by then Alonso could be 20-30 points clear. Deja vu for Raikkonen. Although the latest incarnation of qualifying ought to suit Montoya (remember his amazing series of poles in 2002), you still suspect that Kimi will be McLaren's top scorer.

Honda's test pace suggests that victories could be on the cards, but it is a big leap from last year's controversy and frustration to a full title challenge. I can't imagine Michael Schumacher having another middling season. Either he will completely fall from grace, or he will make my other predictions look foolish by recapturing his past dominance and subjugating all rivals.

Mark Glendenning (MG)

1. Alonso; 2. Barrichello; 3. Raikkonen; 4. Fisichella; 5. Webber

1. Renault; 2. Honda; 3. McLaren; 4. Williams; 5. Ferrari

I hate making predictions based on pre-season testing, but all the noises coming from Barcelona suggest that the Renault car really is as good as the times are making it out to be. Honda will finally make the leap that we've been expecting from them for three years and unless Jenson Button can assert himself early, my gut feeling is that Rubens is going to make that team his own.

Meanwhile, McLaren appear poised to repeat the trick of allowing their rivals a head-start before finally ironing the bugs out of the MP4-21. Or, perhaps more correctly, out of its engine. By mid-seaon Kimi could well have the fastest car in the field, but in terms of the championship it will be too late.

Williams will be eager to prove themselves after a disappointing 2005 (and 2004, and 2003, and 2002...), and Mark Webber will relish what appears to be the best car that the team has produced for a few years, coupled with a very tidy V8 unit from Cosworth. A potential weakness appears to be the rubber, which is why Ferrari might also be in for a long season. Nevertheless, the battle of the Bridgestones should be one of the more intriguing sub-plots of the year.

David Wright (DW)

1. Alonso; 2. Barrichello; 3. Raikkonen; 4. M.Schumacher; 5. Button

1. Renault; 2. Honda; 3. McLaren; 4. Ferrari; 5. Toyota

After securing his first title last year, Fernando Alonso has shown he has what it takes to go back-to-back. Alonso's closest challenger will be Barrichello in the Honda, ahead of 2005 runner-up Kimi Raikkonen.

Michael Schumacher in a more competitive Ferrari (but ultimately a place worse than last season) and Jenson Button will be rounding out the top five - although I don't have much confidence in my choices!

The teams seem a little easier to sort out, with Renault on top, ahead of a close battle between Honda and McLaren, Ferrari not too far behind, and Toyota making the top five again.

Michele Lostia (ML)

1. M.Schumacher; 2. Alonso; 3. Fisichella; 4. Raikkonen; 5. Barrichello

1. Renault; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren 4. Honda; 5. Williams

The 2006 season promises to be very close, with Renault and Honda setting the pace in winter testing but Ferrari and McLaren looking like getting there too. The pace shown so far by Toyota and Williams prompt me to pick the latter.

On the drivers' side, I expect Schumacher to fight hard to regain his crown and go out with a bang. The Renault drivers should be more evenly matched this year, while Raikkonen might suffer more woes from his McLaren-Mercedes. Barrichello and Button should be closely matched, with the former taking the nod thanks to his greater experience.

Marcel Borsboom (MBo)

1. Alonso; 2. M.Schumacher; 3. Button; 4. Raikkonen; 5. Fisichella

1. Renault; 2. Ferrari; 3. Honda; 4. McLaren; 5. Toyota

Alonso will once again take the championship, with Michael Schumacher and Button a close second and third. With the problems McLaren are having so far I expect Raikkonen to come back strongly in the second half of the season, but it will be too late for a serious attempt at the championship. Fisichella will benefit from a good car but he won't come near the championship.

Renault, Ferrari and Honda will be the top of the field in 2006 with McLaren coming up strongly in the second half of the season. Behind those four teams I expect Toyota to 'win' the best of the rest title after a fight with Williams, Red Bull and BMW.

David Cameron (DC)

1. Raikkonen; 2. Alonso; 3. M.Schumacher; 4. Montoya; 5. Webber

1. McLaren; 2. Renault; 3. Ferrari; 4. Williams; 5. Toyota

With the engine and qualifying changes this year, it's harder than ever to make an educated guess. The top teams seem to be closer than ever, but without knowing how reliability issues will affect the teams, it's hard to get it right as a blindfolded darts player has of hitting the board in a darkened bunker without a set of darts, or a board.

There's a sense that, finally, Raikkonen and McLaren must get it right at long last, but the others won't exactly wave them through. Other than that, I'm just waiting to see if Super Aguri can manage to be faster than ART in GP2 - should be a close run in Monaco.

Craig Scarborough (CS)

1. Raikkonnen; 2. Alonso 3. M.Schumacher; 4. Barichello; 5. R.Schumacher

1. Renault; 2. McLaren; 3. Ferrari; 4. Honda; 5. Toyota

While I think it is easy to say who will be among the top drivers, it is harder to predict who will come out on top this year. Much like last year, the advantage will swing from team to team throughout the season.

It appears unlikely that Alonso will let his crown slip, but I cannot avoid thinking there will be the ironic situation of McLaren taking the drivers' championship only to lose the driver who won it at the seasons end.

In the constructors' championship, McLaren may be the stronger team, but it depends on how Fisichella responds to the new car and the changing priorities within the team, as Alonso prepares to leave.

Ferrari will return to a normal top three level of competitiveness, but not the dominance we saw in 2004. Equally, Honda should reverse the slide they saw in 2005 and challenge for wins, but perhaps they need Rubens's experience to finally take the top step of the podium for the team.

Finally, Ralf's resurgence in the last races of 2005 with the revised Toyota suggests he will be more of a match for Trulli this year.

Ross Stonefeld (RS)

1. Alonso; 2. Raikkonen; 3. Montoya; 4. M.Schumacher; 5. Webber

1. McLaren; 2. Renault; 3. Ferrari; 4. Williams; 5. Honda

Quite simply Fernando has won a world championship, Kimi hasn't. In what I hope is a close season, this should be the crucial final ingredient Alonso needs to retain his title. I think if anything, team and driver will be desperate to prove themselves before the Spaniard moves to McLaren.

Kimi will be the main challenger with teammate Montoya close behind and potentially hurting Kimi's challenge. Michael will be the best of the rest and the best of the Bridgestone runners while tyre-teammate Webber will just sneak in, in what looks like the best customer-engined car in F1 in a while.

McLaren won't repeat the mistakes of 2005. They're too good for that. They're obviously lacking reliability in testing but they've got the speed in hand going into the start of the season they lacked last year. It will be a season-long battle with Renault, whose title challenge will be decided not on how strongly Alonso performs but how many troubled weekends befall Fisichella.

Ferrari will be third again, but closer this time. I expect them to be the best Bridgestone team so by default they leap ahead of Williams and Toyota. I hope the tyres are more closely matched this year in qualifying and the races; so having gone with two Michelin teams and two Bridgestone teams thus far, the next best combination should be the Hondas, and I'm looking forward to the match-up between Barrichello and Button.

Thomas O'Keefe (TO)

1. Button; 2. R.Schumacher; 3. M.Schumacher; 4. Fisichella 5. Coulthard

1. Honda; 2. Ferrari; 3. Toyota; 4. Renault; 5. Red Bull Racing

In this Darwinian year of manufacturer competition, the Asians will rise to the top in Formula One as they have in the automotive sector generally.

Honda and Button will finally win at venues like Silverstone, Indianapolis, and at Suzuka, blowing fewer engines than before (most of them belonging to Rubens) and the more conservative Toyota will finish often and well up, with Ralf finally living up to his name and Trulli dazzling us with multiple pole positions.

Renault, delicately balanced astride the English Channel in the best of times, will implode because of internal tension with only Fisi benefitting from the chaos. The Mercedes engine will be the BRM/H-16 dud of the 2006 season and Kimi and JPM will go down with the ship after leading many races.

Ferrari will recover their form somewhat and win maybe the Italian races or perhaps at strategy venues like Monaco and Hungary with brains and Brawn. DC will have a good year with the Red Bull-Ferrari behind him and will finish in the top five.

Tom Keeble (TK)

1. Raikkonen; 2. Fisichella; 3. Montoya; 4. M.Schumacher; 5. Button

1. McLaren; 2. Renault; 3. Ferrari; 4. Honda; 5. Williams

With McLaren, Renault and Honda all looking very strong heading into the season, this is a tough one to call. Renault are quick and reliable - but their budget means that any slip-up in development will have more serious consequences than at their main rivals.

McLaren are not quite on the pace after struggling with reliability, but they are close and will certainly improve as the season wears on. Ferrari should lead the Bridgestone runners, and Honda are threatening a strong start to the season. My money is on Woking delivering this year, but keep an eye on Williams at the start of the season, and Toyota from the midpoint on!

For the drivers, considering new arrivals at a team traditionally struggle to match their teammate for much of the season, I'm favouring the more established hands... except for Alonso, whose pending departure combined with the promise of more aggressive driving could cost quite a few points.

Simon Strang (SS)

1. Alonso; 2. Raikkonen; 3. Montoya; 4. M.Schumacher; 5. Button

1. Renault; 2. McLaren; 3. Ferrari; 4. Honda; 5. Toyota

Fernando Alonso's testing pace suggests he'll carry on as the dominant driver in 2006 and has proved he can cope with the pressure of improving competition. The tricky part is figuring out who will be his toughest adversary.

As ever, McLaren have the speed, if not the reliability, and although I think Kimi is ultimately more consistent than Montoya, I believe the Colombian will play a bigger role this season. Michael Schumacher is as fast as he always was and, along with Ferrari, is the least predictable element. I don't think they or Bridgestone have enough pace to challenge for the title, but I reckon they will be the pace-setters by season's end. Honda will finish lots of races, but Jenson and Rubens have a lot to prove before I'd bet money on them for a title.

Biranit Goren (BG)

1. Alonso; 2. Raikkonen; 3. M.Schumacher; 4. Montoya; 5. Button

1. Renault; 2. McLaren; 3. Ferrari; 4. Honda; 5. Toyota

The more things change, the more they stay the same - and I can't see this season ending up differenly than last year's, although the field looks set to be much closer.

Renault and Alonso will continue their winning streak and be competitive immediately; McLaren and Raikonen will continue to be the fastest combo with reliability problems; and Ferrari with Michael Schumacher will be much closer to the top two, but will still have the inferior tyre between Bridgestone and Michelin. Honda is a wild card, however. Pre-season testing suggest they could cause an interesting upset, but I don't see either Button or Barrichello eclipsing the top three drivers, nor Montoya - who should be in better form overall this season.

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