The 2008 Italian GP Preview

After the rolling hills and wildly varying corners of Spa, a completely different challenge awaits the drivers and teams this weekend in the form of a flat-out blast through the Royal Park at Monza.

The last of the ultra high-speed circuits on the calendar, Monza is amongst the oldest venues in grand prix racing. Its thick forests and ghostly banking might seem a stark counterpoint to the Prancing Horse logos and air horns of the wildly enthusiastic local tifosi, but the combination makes for an atmosphere that most other events can only dream of matching.

Ferrari have a proud history at its home event, but with two wins from the last three years, McLaren have proved more than capable of spoiling the party. Yet while the teams might have Monza covered, the drivers are a different matter - none of this year's main championship contenders have ever won there.

Lewis Hamilton was quick last year but had to settle for second behind teammate Fernando Alonso, Kimi Raikkonen's best result was second to Michael Schumacher in 2006, while Felipe Massa has never even managed to score a point at Monza - a situation he will be particularly keen to address on Sunday.

Five talking points

1. Can Hamilton bounce back from Spa?

Coming just a week after the controversy of Spa, paddock talk in the early part of the Monza weekend is bound to be dominated by Hamilton's penalty. The issue could be resolved before the race ­- but even if it is not, Hamilton and McLaren need to put it to one side and get on with the job at hand.

2. Is Raikkonen out of the hunt?

Some pundits marked Spa as Raikkonen's last chance to be taken seriously as a title contender in 2008. But while Kimi again went home with no points, he looked a lot more competitive than he had in the recent past, and given that he recovered a 17-point deficit in just two races to become champion last year, a shortfall of 19 points with five rounds left still looks manageable ­- just.

3. Will STR beat Red Bull?

Scuderia Toro Rosso has looked decidedly racier than its big brother over the last couple of grands prix. If, as conventional wisdom suggests, the difference is in the engines, then that's only going to be exacerbated down the long straights at Monza. And lest you forget, STR was once Minardi and elements of the team still operate out of Faenza - so for them it is still something of a home race.

4. Is it going to rain again?

Early forecasts hint that Monza might be wet. Changeable weather has already thrown up a few unusual results this year, so don't be surprised to see the running order shaken up if the heavens open on Sunday. But even it's just cold it could cause problems for Ferrari.

5. Bourdais under the spotlight

Spa was easily Sebastien Bourdais' best performance in his short F1 career, but unless he can follow it up with something similar he might be looking for a job at the end of the season. The team has indicated that his results this weekend will play a major part in its final decision, so it's up to the Frenchman to prove that his pace in Belgium was not a one-off.

Success Factors

Power

Given that the cars spend just over three-quarters of the lap at full throttle, we were tempted to put horsepower down for all three of the main success factors at Monza. Drivers can reach speeds of around 350km/h on the main straight, although getting the most out of the engine also depends greatly upon having a good low-drag aero package.

Riding kerbs

One of the keys to getting around Monza quickly is having a car that is happy on the kerbs. The speed that a driver can carry off them helps determine how much momentum they carry down the straights, so if you get it wrong, or your car reacts badly, you'll pay dearly. Engineers have to find a sweet spot in the setup so that the car is soft enough to cope with the kerbs without compromising stability through the quicker corners.

Stability under braking

The cars brake very hard, very late, from very high speeds, and any driver who does not have confidence in his stopping marks is going to be in a world of hurt. Brakes obviously get very hot under the kind of loads that are generated here, but it's a quirk of the circuit that the long straights sometimes gives them time to cool down again before the next corner. Consequently, drivers have to be prepared for the brakes to need an extra moment to reach full power.

Strategy

Bridgestone is bringing the same two compounds - medium and hard - that were used at Spa last week. This is not great news for Ferrari, which has struggled with the harder rubber.

In terms of pit strategy, Monza can be either a one or two-stopper. On paper, stopping once might look like the way to go, partly because the time lost in pitlane is quite high, and also because the circuit's relative lack of corners means that there is less penalty for carrying extra weight.

But grands prix don't take place on paper, and last year a one-stopping Kimi Raikkonen was helpless to prevent the McLarens from scoring a one-two, both having pitted twice along the way.

History

Even if the controversial finish to last week's Belgian GP is at the forefront of people's minds when the teams unpack at Monza, it will not be a patch on the backdrop against which last year's race was fought out.

McLaren dominated the weekend and took a one-two, helped by a nice late-braking move from Hamilton on Raikkonen into the first chicane late in the race.

But behind the scenes the spy scandal was reaching its climax - the team had just discovered that the evidence that prompted the FIA hearing scheduled for the following week had its origins in emails exchanged between Alonso and McLaren test driver Pedro de la Rosa.

Then there was the Italian police visit to McLaren's motorhome on Saturday to inform team management that it was officially being investigated, and to cap it all off, there was also a fine for running a lightweight gearbox that had not been properly crash-tested.

p>But drama has never been a stranger to Monza. Take the 1999 race for example, when reigning world champion Mika Hakkinen was leading comfortably, only to inexplicably spin his McLaren and stall. TV cameras broadcast images of the Finn shedding what he thought were private tears behind some bushes, meanwhile Heinz-Harald Frentzen drove on to take the win for Jordan.

Then there was 1988, when Ayrton Senna put his McLaren on pole for the tenth time of the year, with teammate Alain Prost lining up alongside him. The pair vanished into the distance at the start ­- as the McLarens tended to do that year - but when Prost dropped out when an engine problem, Senna was left to fly the flag alone. The Brazilian looked to have things in hand until he came up to lap Jean-Louis Schlesser - standing in for Nigel Mansell at Williams - and tripped over the Swiss debutant at the first chicane.

The resultant accident put both out of the race and allowed Gerhard Berger to take an unexpected win for Ferrari - an emotional result for Maranello, given that it came soon after the death of Enzo Ferrari. It was the only race that McLaren failed to win all year.

And then there was 1971. Chris Amon was on pole and led for part of the race, his V12 Matra finding Monza's fast sweeps to its liking. But the New Zealander's luck deserted him and a combination of visor and engine problems dropped him out of contention.

Even without Amon there were five cars in contention for the win, and they fought one another right to the chequer. Peter Gethin edged his BRM across the line just 0.01s ahead of Ronnie Peterson's March for the closest finish in F1 history. In fact, the top five (completed by Francois Cevert, Mike Hailwood and Howden Ganley) was covered by just 0.61s.

It's safe to say that we probably won't see a repeat of that on Sunday...

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- The Autosport.com Team

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