The 2008 Chinese GP Preview

This year's championship seems to be the one that nobody wants to win. Reigning champion Kimi Raikkonen has drifted in and out of contention during an under-par season before crashes at Spa and Valencia put and end to his hopes. With Renault not quick enough for most of the year, double champion Fernando Alonso was never really in it. Neither was Heikki Kovalainen.

Robert Kubica and BMW Sauber shouldn't really be in after their quiet patch mid-season, but somehow Hamilton and Massa have contrived to produce another three-way contest in the final two races - just like last year.

Enough of the hot-headed lunges and clumsy driving. Someone needs to step up and show that they actually deserve to win this title, not just inherit it because they didn't make quite as many mistakes as the other guy. The last two races have done little but highlight Alonso as the only true class act in the field, even in the Renault.

Hamilton, mathematically, could wrap it all up at Shanghai this weekend. The thought of it seems unlikely with the evidence from last week and last year piling up, but it wasn't all that long ago that he proved himself capable of dominating an event and taking a crushing victory. Reproducing that form when the pressure is on at the end of the season would go a long way to repairing the damage.

And for Massa, if Hamilton slips up again, he needs to get back into that habit of being consistent that made him into a championship challenger in the first place.

The stage is set, Shanghai awaits, ten points are up for grabs. For goodness sake will somebody still in contention for the title please stand up and put in a performance worthy of a champion.

Five talking points

1. Mistakes

Lewis Hamilton and Felipe Massa each gave a demonstration of what not to do during a championship fight last weekend in Japan. Both were lucky not to lose more ground, but they might not be so fortunate again. The champion is going to have to make it through one of these crucial weekends error free.

Fernando Alonso © LAT

2. Fernando Alonso

He wasn't expected to play a part in this year's championship with Renault this year, but he's certainly proved his value in the last two races. The car now appears to be quick enough to at least be in touch, and with the Spaniard picking his moment carefully to reveal that he will do what he can to aid Massa's charge, he could be a factor.

3. Sebastien Bourdais' future

Every week seems to be the same. What does this poor guy have to do to get a break? He drove brilliantly - again - last weekend to earn a points finish ahead of Sebastian Vettel, but was robbed by a controversial penalty. And he's getting understandably anxious about his future. He'll be ever more desperate for a result at Shanghai to help convince Toro Rosso to keep him on next season.

4. The Finns

Neither Kimi Raikkonen or Heikki Kovalainen can win the world championship this year, but both have the opportunity to make sure the crown is at least in their camp. Kovalainen was, for the first time in a while, running high enough to take points away from Felipe Massa at Fuji, only to be halted by a mechanical problem. Raikkonen is also yet to find himself in a situation where he can help his teammate but, with the battle so close, the performances of the No.2s could be almost crucial as those of the title protagonists.

5. Robert Kubica's title hopes

Kubica has drifted back into the title race almost unnoticed with two podiums in the last three races, while Lewis Hamilton and Felipe Massa have only one between them in that time. He may be seven points behind Massa and 12 behind Hamilton, but don't write him off just yet. BMW have been scoring consistent podiums all season long and that might be all it takes if the top two keep throwing points away at their current rate.

Success factors

Keeping your head

This ought to be such an obvious prerequisite for a champion that it doesn't need mentioning, but given the recent incidents involving Hamilton and Massa, perhaps they both need reminding again. Lewis won't want to recall last year's Chinese Grand Prix where he and McLaren stayed out too long on a worn set of intermediates and paid the price, but it might serve as a fitting reminder for both he and Massa not to take unnecessary risks - like last weekend.

The destroyed rear tires on the McLaren of Lewis Hamilton in the 2007 Chinese Grand Prix © XPB

Tyre wear

Bridgestone are bringing their two hardest compounds to cope with the high-wear surface at Shanghai. Ferrari will have to combat their issues with getting the harder compound rubber up to temperature, particularly in qualifying, while McLaren will have work to do on Friday to ensure their car, and Hamilton's particularly, can look after the tyres over a long stint with the high level of degradation.

Straight-line speed

Like Fuji, Shanghai is a circuit with long straights where aerodynamic efficiency in a straight line and engine power will be crucial. The teams can take a reasonable amount of wing off with most of the corners being low speed and demanding good mechanical rather than aero grip. But the temptation to take off enough wing to increase the likelihood of overtaking on the long straights could come at the cost of overall lap time, particularly in qualifying.

Strategy

Like most, the Chinese Grand Prix is a two-stop race with the optimum strategy, but the first stint tends to be shorter than at most circuits. If the tyre wear is as high as predicted, expect to see teams find ways to run the shortest possible stint on the less favourable tyre, whether it be the final one (which will likely force a long middle stint), or perhaps the first, as used to perfection by Alonso and Renault at Singapore.

The shorter first stint increases the temptation to prioritise grid position in qualifying rather than planning to run those all-important two or three laps longer than your rivals race strategy. If anyone can make both compounds of tyre work well, the heavily-fuelled gamble taken by Jarno Trulli in Singapore could be repeated by someone in China. Though the ability to maintain track position in a heavy car won't be the same with the long straights likely to push slow cars well down the order.

The Inside Line

McLaren's Lewis Hamilton on the nature of the Shanghai circuit

"I wouldn't call Shanghai a technical circuit. Some of the slower turns require a more precise approach, but you've got to really attack some of the corners. It's technical in the sense that you can't make a slow or poorly-balanced car go quickly around it, but finding a good set-up is one of the jobs of a racing driver and, for that reason, I like it."

Rubens Barrichello (Ferrari) leads Kimi Raikkonen (McLaren) and Jenson Button (Honda) in the inaugural Chinese Grand Prix in 2004 © XPB

History

Raikkonen won last year's race, comfortably in the end. Hamilton led in the early stages but destroyed his intermediate tyres in the middle of the race while Raikkonen and Alonso did a better job of preserving theirs. Kimi passed Lewis for the lead when Hamilton ran wide two laps before the infamous pit lane incident ended his race.

Robert Kubica had a chance to record BMW Sauber's first victory, with Raikkonen and Alonso rejoining behind him after the final round of pit stops, but after just one lap up front the BMW gave up and Kubica was out.

Alonso couldn't get near Raikkonen, and so the Finn had made up the first ten of the 17 points he was behind Hamilton pre-Shanghai, and set up the three-way fight in Brazil.

In 2006, Alonso was set to dominate and a third of the way through the race he looked untouchable after streaking into a 20-second lead. But his advantage turned to nothing after the first round of stops when he was forced to take new intermediates at the front and suffered heavy graining, while Giancarlo Fisichella and Michael Schumacher kept the same set of fronts on and ate into the lead at four seconds per lap.

Schumacher took the lead from Fisichella after the second round of stops, and that coincided with Alonso's return to front running pace and he went from 13 to three seconds behind Schumacher in just six laps. Unfortunately they were the last six laps and he ran out of time to stop Schumacher winning the race.

Alonso clinched the first of his two world titles at Shanghai in the final race of 2005, after the inaugural Chinese Grand Prix in 2004. Rubens Barrichello won that race for Ferrari after battling all day with Jenson Button's BAR-Honda and Kimi Raikkonen's McLaren.

Schumacher, meanwhile, had a terrible weekend (having already clinched the title). The German spun in one-lap qualifying and started 17th, clattered Christian Klien's Jaguar in the early laps of the race, before spinning again and later picking up a puncture. He eventually finished a lap down in 12th.