The 2007 Autosport.com Gamble
At the start of every season, the autosport.com team members and contributors do the brave thing and put their bets down on who will be the world champion and which team will win the constructors' championship. Eight months from now, we'll know if we rule or if we're just a bunch of fools...
| THE 2007 DRIVERS' CHAMPIONSHIP GAMBLE | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pos | Driver | Total | MBi | DS | TM | JN | RB | BT | MBo | GF | PE | CS | TO | ML | MG | MBe | RS | DW | TK | WG | ||||
| 1 | Raikkonen | 76 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | ||||
| 2 | Massa | 67 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | ||||
| = | Alonso | 67 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | ||||
| 4 | Kovalainen | 17 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| 5 | Hamilton | 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| 6 | Kubica | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| 7 | Heidfeld | 8 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| = | Fisichella | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Button | 3 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| THE 2007 CONSTRUCTORS' CHAMPIONSHIP GAMBLE | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pos | Team | Total | MBi | DS | TM | JN | RB | BT | MBo | GF | PE | CS | TO | ML | MG | MBe | RS | DW | TK | WG | ||||
| 1 | Ferrari | 89 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||||
| 2 | McLaren | 69 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | ||||
| 3 | Renault | 50 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | ||||
| 4 | BMW | 41 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | Honda | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Williams | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Red Bull | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Toyota | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||
1. Alonso; 2. Raikkonen; 3. Massa; 4. Hamilton; 5. Fisichella
1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. Renault; 4. BMW; 5. Williams
This task of predicting the 'top fives' before the season has even started has always been fiendishly difficult. In fact, it's always been a fool's errand. But do it we must, because the editor says so! So I've done it. Am I confident that I'm right? No! But my reasoning is as follows:
Alonso will be champion again because he's the most complete driver and because the McLaren has been very impressive in testing, despite Raikkonen's genius and the Ferrari's evident pace (quicker by the week, seemingly). Having said that, I wouldn't be at all surprised if it ended up the other way around: Kimi can be champ as long as he keeps his head - but will he?
Undoubtedly, Ferrari will be very strong - and I think Massa's greater experience (over Hamilton) will edge their points total above McLaren's in the constructors' championship. The BMW will be as quick as the Renault, but not as reliable. And Williams will come out a smidgen ahead in an extremely tightly contested midfield battle involving themselves, Toyota, Honda and Red Bull.
1. Raikkonen; 2. Alonso; 3. Massa; 4. Hamilton; 5. Kovalainen
1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. Renault; 4. BMW; 5. Honda
Do Ferrari have as big an advantage as their pre-season testing form suggests? I hope not. But I do reckon they've got enough of an edge to push Kimi to his first title. Then again, I backed him last year to do it for McLaren. The Woking team is certainly in good shape this time and, with Alonso, they will push Ferrari hard. In fact, Fernando might make the difference to steal the title. But I won't waiver - Kimi's the man!
I refuse to believe Felipe Massa is world champion material, but he's certainly good enough to help Ferrari to the constructors' title, while the two key rookies Lewis Hamilton and Heikki Kovalainen will prove that they are stars of the future. Both have every reason to believe they can win races in their first seasons.
1. Alonso; 2. Massa; 3. Raikkonen; 4. Kubica; 5. Hamilton
1. McLaren; 2. Ferrari; 3. BMW; 4. Renault; 5. Honda
If the McLaren can hold the sheer speed it had with Raikkonen, then Alonso's cooler head may come up trumps. Raikkonen is faster than Massa, although Massa's experience with Maranello will be his trump card early in the season, leaving Kimi not enough time to catch up. Kubica is unflappable, so with the rising pace of BMW will be there. Hamilton will beat the other rookies, but hey, there's too many wheels for me!
1. Massa; 2. Alonso; 3. Raikkonen; 4. Hamilton; 5. Kovalainen
1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. Renault; 4. BMW; 5. Williams
Ferrari may have lost Michael Schumacher and Ross Brawn, but Jean Todt will not allow the train to leave its tracks. Felipe Massa, having learned alongside the master last year, will put it all to good use to head off the threat of both his own Ferrari teammate Kimi Raikkonen, who will continue to be dogged by bad luck, and a very-strong Alonso at McLaren.
1. Raikkonen; 2. Massa; 3. Alonso; 4. Kovalainen; 5. Kubica
1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. Renault; 4. BMW; 5. Honda
Kimi Raikkonen will eventually edge out Felipe Massa in a season dominated by Ferrari. Reigning champion Fernando Alonso will do enough for a distant third in the title chase. Kovalainen and Kubica are choices of the heart rather than the head, as I'd like to see the younger drivers challenging for the top spots. The constructors' championship fortunes will follow the same pattern as the drivers' championship, with Ferrari dominating. McLaren and Renault's winning experience will see them just pipping the improving BMW outfit, with Honda once again filling the 'close, but not close enough' role and propping up the top four.
1. Alonso; 2. Raikkonen; 3. Massa; 4. Hamilton; 5. Heidfeld
1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. BMW; 4. Renault; 5. Honda
This should be an interesting season. If the 2007 McLaren has speed
and any consistency, I think Fernando Alonso is in a very good position to win the championship. At Ferrari, Raikkonen and Massa look set to embark upon a battle to show the team who's number one, and this inter-team fight to establish the upper hand may allow Alonso to slip past both of them, as they take points from each other.
Hamilton will be exciting to watch, but will likely play himself in slowly and, if pre-season testing is anything to go by, Nick Heidfeld will step on some podiums and worry the top two teams occasionally in his first truly competitive BMW-Sauber. With their new driver line-up, I fear that Renault will have a disappointing season, with Fisichella being too inconsistent and Kovalainen too inexperienced. Kubica will give Heidfeld a run for his money, but may suffer from the sophomore jinx. Finally, Honda will likely outperform their rival Toyota, but will probably continue their inconsistent form of last season.
1. Raikkonen; 2. Alonso; 3. Massa; 4. Fisichella; 5. Button
1. Ferrari; 2. Renault; 3. McLaren; 4. Honda; 5. BMW
This year's championship will be a fight between Raikkonen and Alonso. Both Ferrari and McLaren looked strong in testing and both drivers have proven that they are capable of fighting for the championship. Massa will be a good support driver for Raikkonen and on a good day he should be able to steal points away from Alonso and McLaren. Fisichella and Button will lead the big pack of drivers that should be able to score points on a regular basis.
Ferrari, of the top teams, have the most experienced driver duo and that should help them to win the constructors title. I expect Kovalainen to do a better job than Hamilton in 2007 and that will help Renault to take the second position with McLaren in third. Honda, BMW, Toyota, and Red Bull will fight for the four to seven position with the first two teams taking position four and five.
1. Massa; 2. Raikkonen; 3. Alonso; 4. Fisichella; 5. Heidfeld
1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. Renault; 4. BMW; 5. Honda
Ferrari look in the best shape for this year, and if Massa can put his familiarity with the team to good use while Raikkonen is finding his feet then the Brazilian can snatch the title. Raikkonen will come on strong though, and it could make for an exciting finish to the year if he starts to claw back the deficit. Alonso's success is really dependant on McLaren producing a good car, while Fisichella will be able to take advantage of the changes in the top teams this year to still be somewhere near the front.
BMW should be a lot stronger this year, but a steady Heidfeld should be a better bet than Kubica over the course of the season, even if the Pole scores the more spectacular results when he is on form. Honda will have their moments through the year, and their package should be better than the rest of the field behind the top teams.
1. Raikkonen; 2. Alonso; 3. Massa; 4. Button; 5. Hamilton
1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. Honda; 4. Renault; 5. BMW
This is finally going to be Kimi Raikkonen's year, thanks to Ferrari's superior pace and reliability and the fact that Italian squad is unlikely to suffer from the exits of Michael Schumacher and Ross Brawn. McLaren will be close, but not close enough for Fernando Alonso to beat the Finn.
Felipe Massa will be strong again but he will have to play second fiddle to Raikkonen. Jenson Button will be a distant fourth as a consequence of Ferrari's and McLaren's dominance, while Lewis Hamilton will enjoy a promising maiden season in the McLaren. Renault will feel Alonso's exit, while BMW Sauber will show they are getting closer to the top.
1. Massa; 2. Raikonnen; 3. Alonso; 4. Fisichella; 5. Kovalainen
1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. Renault; 4. BMW; 5. Williams
This year the most difficult thing will be to predict which of the top three teams will produce the champion driver. I place Massa top as he is settled into the team that are best prepared for the new season, but he'll be closely matched by Raikkonen. Alonso's raw pace and maturity will see him as close to Ferrari as the McLaren will allow him. Renault's drivers will be next along, with Fisichella's experience beating the faster Kovalainen, who in turn will usurp Hamilton as Rookie of the year.
I don't think there will be one team that dominate the season and expect the top three teams to ebb and flow in reliability and pace through the season. Ferrari may well be quick out of the box - their pace at the end of 2006 and Bridgestone knowledge should keep them ahead while the other teams learn their way. McLaren will eclipse Renault by virtue of their pace and driver package. BMW Sauber will follow them up as the next fastest package, while I rank Williams as the big surprise of the season.
1. Raikkonen; 2. Kovalainen; 3. Massa; 4. Alonso; 5. Kubica
1. Ferrari; 2. Renault; 3. McLaren; 4. BMW; 5. Toyota
Kimi will vanquish Massa after Playing Possum in testing; Massa will start locking up and hitting things again, but with the superior Ferrari 2007 both drivers will be amongst the top five. The Kimster, a loner to begin with, will run away, hide and win the most races, single-handedly bringing the quality of post-race press conferences to a new low, leaving Peter Windsor sputtering and tearing his remaining hair out.
Heikki showed us what he was made of in the last day of Bahrain tests when, less than 24 hours from having his bell rung from crashing the Renault R27 heavily, he went out and posted the second fastest time behind Massa, a statement about Heikki's talent and what he and his Renault car and engine are made of. Heikki could be a rookie winner in Melbourne and will send Fisichella home to Rome.
Alonso's 15 minutes of fame are up; once in the doldrums, McLaren has never turned itself around fast enough to go from no wins, as in 2006, to the four or five wins it will take in 2007 to become the world drivers' champion. Worse news: look for 'Happy' Hamilton to win first for McLaren-Mercedes and for pictures in the paddock of Flavio consoling 'Frustrated' Fernando. BMW, the real Silver Arrows team, with Kubica, its German drivers, Bavarian powerplants and a Swiss wind tunnel going 24/7, will show up Mercedes and the Japanese teams as the hungriest and most successful of the also-ran teams.
1. Massa; 2. Raikkonen; 3. Alonso; 4. Kubica; 5. Fisichella
1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. BMW; 4. Renault; 5. Honda
The latter part of winter testing seems to indicate that Ferrari will be the class of the field this year, with Massa appearing to have the upper hand over Raikkonen thanks to his lengthier experience within the team. It will be a nice scrap both between the two drivers and with Alonso, but while the latter will be his usual quick and consistent self, I think his McLaren will let him down a few times. The new BMW looks very quick and I expect Kubica to shine and beat his teammate Heidfeld. The last spots in the top five will be fought among the Renault and Honda drivers, and I give Fisichella a vote of confidence thanks his new-found confidence following Alonso's departure from the French team.
1. Raikkonen; 2. Alonso; 3. Massa; 4. Kubica; 5. Hamilton
1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. BMW; 4. Renault; 5. Red Bull
This year, more than ever, is a crapshoot. Kimi and Ferrari have looked good in testing, and if that translates across to early season results then there could be a party in Finland at year's end. Virtually every team has a question mark of some sort against it, but expect BMW to get stronger through the year, and we still haven't seen everything that Kubica may have to offer yet. With the benefit of a Newey chassis wrapped around a Renault engine, RBR can also look forward to a few good weekends, particularly in the second half of the season.
1. Alonso; 2. Raikkonen; 3. Kovalainen; 4. Massa; 5. Kubica
1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. Renault; 4. BMW; 5. Williams
Alonso will walk seamlessly into McLaren and pick up where he left off with Renault - a task that would have been much harder had he faced an unchanged Ferrari line-up. But the Spaniard hasn't had an easy title win yet, and Raikkonen, who may well win more races than the champion, will ensure that 2007 is no exception. Renault's recent achievements are simply too good for the reigning champions to fade into irrelevance post-Alonso, so expect Kovalainen to enjoy a very strong debut season.
Despite their stunning testing form, it would be a huge leap for BMW to become season-long front-runners this year, but Kubica should underline his star quality and get very accustomed to the podium. Driven by utter disgust with their 2006 performance, Williams will strike a blow for the independents by beating the Japanese manufacturers and Red Bull's all-star package to fifth in the constructors'.
1. Heidfeld; 2. Massa; 3. Raikkonen; 4. Alonso; 5. Kovalainen
1. Ferrari; 2. BMW; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. Williams
This is the F1 gamble, so here goes. We will have three drivers with a realistic chance for the title going into the final round but Nick Heidfeld will be world champion. He won't be spectacular, but with steady performance and reliability he'll just get more points than anyone else in what will be a very open and chaotic season.
Without a clear favourite or team number one at Ferrari neither driver will be able to grab hold of the championship long enough to make a difference, but it will be enough to go home with the constructor's title. Alonso will steal two wins and a few headlines while Heikki Kovalainen will win a race early in the season and even lead the points briefly.
On the team side Williams will produce a better chassis than 'big brother' Toyota and will have an overall better package and season than Honda. Sutil will be the surprise of the season and while Hamilton won't be an out and out disappointment, we will clearly see the difference between a rookie and a two time world champion.
1. Raikkonen; 2. Alonso; 3. Massa; 4. Kovalainen; 5. Hamilton
1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. Renault; 4. BMW; 5. Honda
After coming close last season, Ferrari look set to take both titles this year. Kimi Raikkonen will take the drivers' title, with Felipe Massa not far behind, but I feel that the team to challenge Ferrari will not be the team that won the last two world championships, Renault, but McLaren instead. Completing the top five drivers are two rookies - Heikki Kovalainen, who will outpace his more experienced teammate Giancarlo Fisichella, and reigning GP2 champion Lewis Hamilton. In the teams' battle, I see a familiar top three (if not a familiar order), with an improved BMW Sauber ahead of Honda.
1. Massa; 2. Alonso; 3. Raikkonen; 4. Hamilton; 5. Kubica
1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. BMW; 4. Renault; 5. Honda
Alonso and Raikkonen are recognized for their potential World Champion status, but there is every danger that they will take half the season to get the most out of their new seats. Accordingly, I'd not be surprised to see Massa out-perform his celebrated team-mate. Alonso should also be effective once he gets the most from his McLaren, though reliability may be an issue. Hamilton and Kubica should have platforms that let them show off their talents...
Heading in to the season, it seems that Ferrari and McLaren have an edge, which would be hard to overhaul; BMW looks strong, but even if they start right on the pace, they are unlikely to be able to out-develop their rivals and stay there. Renault seem to be a little off the pace, with Honda father back, but both have the resources to turn that around before season end.
1. Raikkonen; 2. Massa; 3. Alonso; 4. Kovalainen; 5. Heidfeld
1. Ferrari; 2. Renault; 3. McLaren; 4. BMW; 5. Red Bull
It's all change at the sharp end of Formula One and it is truly exciting to head into the season with so many unknowns. In the end, though, Jean Todt did not build his Ferrari 'Dream Team' without a plan for 'Dream Team II' and on testing form alone it already seems engineering shuffles and the departure of Michael Schumacher (not that he will be staying out of team affairs, mind) will not trouble the former champions. Raikkonen is a talent that has been let down by McLaren's fallibility and Ferrari don't normally make such mistakes. If the car holds together he should win by a mile. But that is one of the many ifs for this season.
Renault's challenge depends on Kovalainen and I think he has the pace and experience to claim some personal glory while helping the team to second in the constructors'. Alonso's season with McLaren should be a spitting image of Raikkonen's in past years. Expect the same flashes of pace but the same struggles and frustrations with reliability. If so, will the two-time champ control his anger? Hamilton will bed in gently and help keep the team ahead of BMW while Red Bull should have some pace with that Renault engine to claim fifth.
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