Dodgy Business

Out of the Bull, a picture is starting to emerge. But is Michael Schumacher about to repaint it?

The Bullshit Season. I love this time of year. Optimism, in January, is highly affordable. Come the end of March it will be sold at a premium, the preserve of the few.

"Oh my gawd," grimaced a team honcho as I approached, tape in hand, canvassing opinion on F1 '06. "Can't you bugger off down to Honda because Nick Fry (team principal) and Geoff Willis (technical director) will talk the hind legs off donkeys."

Ooh, bitch! What's up? Wrong side of the bed? PMT?

"No, just joking. But it's their launch, their turn. Talk's cheap and the BS flowing. I mean, I've just read Fry reckoning they've got the best driver line-up in the world. Well, I hate to be a spoil sport, Nick, but one of your effing drivers hasn't won a bloody race, mate... And he's probably the quicker one! If you're sitting there with Raikkonen and Montoya, or Alonso and Fisi, you'd be saying, are you sure, mate?"

He wasn't finished.

"I tell you, you're missing out. Nick Fry's been passing opinion on anything and everything. If I give you my daughter's homework you can go and see what he thinks of that as well!"

Up and down pitlane, it's the same. The day's talking head is always fair game for a bit of sport. Without too many facts to spoil the story, BS still reigns. But not much longer.

So far, deciphering testing has been nigh on impossible what with pukka V8s, V10s, restricted V10s, interim chassis and so on. But slowly, with Bahrain just six weeks away and more definitive new cars breaking cover, a picture is emerging.

Still, it's hard to find serious people prepared to nail their colours to the mast. My Nick Fry assassin, for one, wouldn't set himself up to be shot down.

Elsewhere, Toyota's Mike Gascoyne had flown to Barcelona to keep an eye on latest developments with the team's TF106. Not one of the paddock's principal poo-poo peddlers, he's experienced, speaks his mind and is tech director of a big budget team aiming to fight the big boys. How does he read things?

"You'd say that Renault look good, the benchmark at the moment still," Gascoyne reckons.

A surprise, considering the relatively late arrival of R26?

"Not really. They're world champions and they know what they're doing. McLaren are certainly not on the Renault pace and seem to be struggling a bit. People are talking about the engine but they don't look to be so consistent either. But you don't know fuel loads, tyre programmes, etc. I'd say BMW look solid, although they've probably done a couple of low fuel runs to keep themselves looking good.

"Honda look good for a first day. They always tend to be strong in the old winter GP season but they do seem to be in fairly decent shape. Red Bull are in the shit, big time. We look okay, but again there's a lot of tyre work going on and we've got a major update to come."

Gascoyne is talking about the aero update that will appear for the final couple of tests before the cars go to Bahrain. Just about everything will be different. Ask him how much it will be worth around Barcelona and Mike won't be drawn. But you can bet that Toyota would like to see something closer to a second than a couple of tenths. If they do, considering they're currently around 0.6s shy of Renault, things will get interesting.

What about Ferrari?

Thursday is D-day. So far this week, Felipe Massa has been going quickly but still in a 2004-spec Ferrari. But, in a few hours, Michael Schumacher will drive the 2006 car at Barcelona. Crunch time.

Is it realistic for Toyota, just about to embark on year five, to compete with Ferrari and Michael on the same tyre?

On the surface, taking into account Ferrari's now highly relevant 2004 Bridgestone tyre database, the team's competence and the Michael factor, it shouldn't be.

What's interesting is that many older, retired drivers - those who know how the mind works as time marches on - reckon that Michael is not the force he was. The younger ones, those who still race against him, don't even ask the question.

Michael is 37, but look at Nigel Mansell in '92, at 39. Okay, Nigel was still hungry to win a title, but I can't watch Michael for 14 years - the constant speed, the instant feel for grip, the competitor, the record - and come to the conclusion that he will be anything other than formidable.

How formidable, we will know soon enough. Schumacher might just turn up and blitz everyone at Barcelona. And if he does, you get the feeling that Gascoyne & Co would rather know about it than get a nasty shock in Bahrain.

Que sera, sera...

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- The Autosport.com Team

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