All that Could Have Been: Analysis of Williams's success and failure
Amid the smiles and back-slapping at the top of the Williams steps in the paddock on Sunday night, for getting both cars home in the points, with a fastest lap to boot, you could sense an overwhelming mood of frustration that the team could have done even better. Jonathan Noble analyses why Williams were stronger than expected but achieved less than they should
Believe none of what you hear and half of what you see. That is the lesson that Williams were kicking themselves for not taking on board heading into last weekend's Bahrain Grand Prix.
Amid the smiles and back-slapping at the top of the Williams steps in the paddock on Sunday night, for getting both cars home in the points, with a fastest lap to boot, you could sense an overwhelming mood of frustration that the team could have done even better.
Williams technical director Sam Michael said with mixed emotions: "If you look at it over the race distance, in terms of pace, we were the fastest car out there today..."
He was right. Nico Rosberg's sensational drive through the field delivered the kind of pace that was matched only by Michael Schumacher and Fernando Alonso, yet the team only ended the afternoon with a sixth and a seventh place.
The root cause of that was not any weakness with the car, engine or tyres, but could be explained simply by the mood with which the team had gone into the weekend.
Unsure of their overall pace, Williams had convinced themselves they did not quite have the speed to match everyone's pre-event favourites - Renault, Honda, Ferrari and McLaren. They had no reason to feel they would be up there. After all, no-one else was talking about Williams as challengers for victory in Bahrain, let alone writing it.
Sure, Mark Webber and Nico Rosberg had set some pretty impressive times in pre-season testing, but the general view was that they had come simply as a result of new tyres and low levels of fuel compared to the opposition rather than because the FW28 was something sensational. All eyes were on the quick and consistent runs that Renault and Honda were putting in.
That perception meant that rather than approach the Sakhir weekend with the kind of mindset that they were gunning with the big boys for a podium or even victory, Williams made the mistake of sitting back a little and taking things a bit conservatively.
That attitude had an impact on their set-up, their tyre choice and ultimately their fuel strategy. Among the top ten qualifiers, Webber joined McLaren's Juan Pablo Montoya in getting fuelled the most - a whopping 23 laps' worth compared to Michael Schumacher's 15, Jenson Button's 18 and Fernando Alonso's 19.
That strategy was clearly designed to keep Williams in the hunt for points, but meant that from the start of the race Mark Webber would have no chance of fighting with the boys at the front for victory. It was a mistake the team would later have cause to regret.
![]() Mark Webber (Williams-Cosworth) holds off Giancarlo Fisichella (Renault) © LAT
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"We went into this weekend with no one talking about Williams at all, to be honest, and I think that brings an element of doubt into the team," confirmed Michael. "That inevitably puts you onto conservative decisions, whether it is about set-up or strategy or tyres. And definitely we were too conservative on strategy, because we went very long.
"Although people say, 'oh look how quick Williams were with so much fuel', it doesn't help get you on the podium. You have got to be aggressive, like Renault and Ferrari were, and make sure you are up there at the start of the race. You also avoid the damaged noses and shunts if you are on the pace."
Michael's reckoning about Webber's overall pace in qualifying is pretty much born out by working out the fuel-corrected times for the top runners. Using the fuel consumption rate taken as the FIA figure of 2.75kg per lap, and a weight penalty of 0.33 seconds per 10kg of fuel, then the corrected fuel loads shifted forwards to Michael Schumacher's 15 laps worth of fuel are as follows
1. Jenson Button 1:31.277 2. Fernando Alonso 1:31.399 3. Michael Schumacher 1:31.431 4. Felipe Massa 1:31.478 * 5. Juan Pablo Montoya 1:31.504 6. Mark Webber 1:32.346 7. Rubens Barrichello 1:32.496 8. Christian Klien 1:32.534 9. Giancarlo Fisichella 1:33.413 10. Nick Heidfeld 1:33.761
(* Felipe Massa's time has been uncorrected because he pitted early after his spin)
While it shows that Williams were there-or-thereabouts in qualifying trim, the fact that their decision to go for 'radical' Bridgestone tyre compounds and casings (more on that later) meant they lost out in the cool conditions on Saturday in Bahrain. In theory, they would have gone better still if it had been warmer.
Taking the weather and the fuel loads into account, after the event it all looks pretty rosy, but by the time the team first realised exactly what would have been possible in qualifying, then it was too late for the race.
That strategy was clearly designed to keep Williams in the hunt for points, at a time when they were not expecting too much from the car, but it meant that from the start of the race Mark Webber would have no chance of fighting with the boys at the front for victory.
The spread that is caused by cars following each other on the track, allied to the fuel penalty he was carrying, meant that after just three laps Webber was 14 seconds behind and drifting backwards at around two seconds per lap. This can be seen clearly in autosport.com's The Race in Action. In terms of the podium, it was all over.
![]() Nico Rosberg chases Nick Heidfeld (BMW) and Tiago Monteiro (Midland-Toyota) © LAT
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And, with teammate Nico Rosberg having knocked his front wing against Nick Heidfeld at the first corner, the team's best hopes were points - which the pair duly delivered.
Yet what was about to unfold on the track would send a buzz of excitement rippling through the Williams perch on the pitwall. For while Webber's afternoon was effectively ruined by the fuel strategy that left him far off the pace of the leaders (but able to match the similarly fuelled Juan Pablo Montoya over the course of the afternoon), Rosberg was a man on a mission.
After his pitstop for a new nose early on, Rosberg rejoined the race at the start of lap 2, a massive 56.5 seconds off race-leader Michael Schumacher. Once things had stabilised, Rosberg set about the race with aplomb - and delivered the true indication of what Williams are capable of.
These are the gaps between the race leader and Rosberg at specific points of the race.
LAP 2 56.50 seconds LAP 10 66.10 seconds LAP 28 (after 1st stop) 70.20 seconds LAP 44 (after 2nd stop) 65.50 seconds LAP 57 63.03 seconds
They show how Rosberg lost time early in the race because he was heavy with fuel compared to the leaders, running to lap 28 until his first proper refuelling stop, but once he was on an equal footing with the other cars, then he was consistently able to close down the gap.
In fact, if you take the total race time from lap nine, after Rosberg had got past Yuji Ide's Super Aguri, then his performance is pretty impressive overall.
The total lap-times of the leading drivers, who completed every lap, after this are:
1. Fernando Alonso 4,626.108 seconds 2. Kimi Raikkonen + 0.764 seconds 3. Nico Rosberg + 3.069 seconds 4. Michael Schumacher + 5.805 seconds 5. Jenson Button + 13.410 seconds
Although we must take into account that Rosberg did have a new set of tyres available at both of his stops (a luxury that was not available to every driver that had made it through to the final 10-place shootout in qualifying), this closing down on the leaders did come despite having to fight his way through the field.
Rosberg's performance also included some fastest race laps right at the end of his stints. In fact, of the top 10 fastest laps from every driver in the Bahrain Grand Prix, Rosberg set six of them - including the two best of the race: his 1:32.408 on lap 42, and his 1:32.521 on lap 26.
Those quick laps from Rosberg delivered two clear messages. The first was that on the driver front, the team have some pretty exciting talent. Rosberg was clearly the centre of attention in Bahrain on Sunday - and little wonder after his drive that included some sensational overtaking moves.
![]() A Bridgestone engineer monitors tire temperatures in Friday practice © LAT
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Williams co-owner Patrick Head said: "We could tell he was pretty good from the testing last year. That sort of fighting quality in the race, you could see it in his GP2 races, but you really saw it today. It was excellent."
Michael was convinced that Rosberg's drive would have been good enough for the podium if he had not been caught up in that first corner incident.
"On pure math, from subtracting where he finished behind to where he was behind (after his pitstop to repair the wing), he should have finished in a solid third," explained Michael.
"Whether he would have run with Michael (Schumacher) or Fernando (Alonso) I don't know, but he would have been within ten seconds of them. Whether he could have even beaten them I don't know, but he would have been third."
The second message from Rosberg's laptimes was the indication of the potential that Williams have unlocked from Bridgestone. For while Toyota look like they are going to have to go back to the drawing board to get their TF106 working with the Japanese rubber, Williams have got their relationship off to a flying start.
And it was no wonder, then, that Renault's director of engineering Pat Symonds said it was 'scary' that Rosberg's times came right at the end of a stint, when the tyres should in theory be at their worst.
In fact, for all their conservative approach to the Bahrain Grand Prix weekend itself, Williams have stood out among the Bridgestone crowd in wanting to push development at a rate that even Ferrari are not willing to take.
For Bahrain, Williams were alone in choosing Bridgestone's very latest specification rubber and it is a strategy the team are willing to take for the rest of the year. If they are going to be successful, then they need to push the envelope - they cannot afford to sit back and play it safe.
There are negatives, like the fact that running that type of rubber cost them in terms of overall speed on the Saturday of Bahrain because of the cool weather, but then if the payback is the pace that Rosberg was able to show on Sunday, then it is a decision worth taking.
![]() Mark Webber prepares to qualify © LAT
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"From the tyres," Head says, "we are certainly running the sort of highest development of the Bridgestone tyre, more so than from what we understand of Ferrari and Toyota.
"We think it is better for us in the longer term that way, but it means we are very vulnerable to cold track temperatures. So it was difficult for us in qualifying. But I am not complaining; that is our choice but, like everything, it is not just plus-plus."
Michael adds: "I think we run a completely different casing and compound to all the other Bridgestone teams. What we try to do is push Bridgestone to new casing and compounds and they are responding very well. I think they appreciate us not being conservative. We are taking a bit more of a risk, but it could pay off because you have to move on quickly in this business."
The other area that marks Williams out over some of their rivals is the use of the third car, which appears to be more crucial this season than it has been in the past. For although Williams may not be too worried about the reliability of their Cosworth engines, the return of tyre changes and the limit of seven sets of tyres per race weekend has had a knock-on affect on Fridays - with teams reluctant to give their race drivers many laps at all.
Teams know that the ideal scenario is to keep two new sets for the race, but it is hard to do that these days. In theory, a driver could use a minimum of two sets doing a back-to-back comparison of his options on Friday or Saturday, with one other set on Saturday morning. That would leave him two new sets for qualifying and two for the race.
However, using the minimum number of tyres on Friday and Saturday morning is almost impossible - unless of course you have that third car. For Williams, it means Webber and Rosberg can save tyres on Friday while Alexander Wurz completes lap after lap getting tyre data, set-up data and engine data.
Webber says: "The benefits are invisible for Saturday and Sunday, but they are in the background heavily. It's a big advantage. Alex did a really good job for us, and it's a huge advantage to have him there in terms of engine mileage, tyre allocation and usage. It means we don't have to do the tyre comparison ourselves."
For Michael, the advantage of that third car cannot be underestimated. "The two hours of work that Alex did on Friday were more valuable for set-up and tyres than the last 17,000km of testing were," he reckons.
Let's also not forget the strengths of the Cosworth engine. Williams may still be linked with a switch to Toyota engines next year, but that has not stopped their current engine partner pulling out all the stops to deliver an ultra-strong power-unit.
"I personally think Cosworth have got the best engine on the grid, and if that gives us a harder time to develop the tyre or the set-up or aero, fine," explains Michael. "But you have got to take your hat off to them: they produced an engine that revs to 19000rpm and is as solid as a rock. So they did a really, really good job."
Michael also thinks it is wrong to forget about the job that Mark Webber can do - even though he was almost forgotten in the post-Bahrain hype.
"Mark did a solid job, start to finish," says Michael. "He did not put a foot wrong. He had a different tyre strategy to Nico - because he had been in the last qualifying session, he had one less new set than Nico, because Nico had new tyres all the way through. So there are things like this that go in favour of Nico, and you have to take all that into account. Mark did a good job."
Throwing the lessons from Bahrain forward to Malaysia this weekend and beyond, it is easy to see why Williams are confident a more aggressive approach will allow them to deliver.
![]() Sam Michael and Sir Jackie Stewart on the starting grid © XPB/LAT
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Michael believes that the best thing about Bahrain was the fact that even though the team got it wrong, they now know what they are capable of and how strong their package is.
"The biggest thing it will do is give Mark and Nico confidence that the aero is there, the engine is there, and the tyre is there," he explains. "If we can give them the strategy, then they can deliver. The car is reliable, it is solid as a rock, the seamless gearbox ran seamlessly and there was not even a hint of temperature or pressure during the race."
Head is slightly more cautious about their chances, despite being pretty upbeat about where they are at the moment.
"I think until we have actually done a full competitive race, it is really hard to tell where we are," he says. "Okay, our laptimes in Bahrain were pretty strong, but we have seen teams do well in Melbourne and then that not get carried through.
"I would like to see Malaysia as well, because that has got more high-speed corners, and whether we are truly competitive aerodynamically or not, I don't know yet. I am not saying our car is very good, but the Cosworth is strong, so that is certainly part of why we were good on the track."
It is clear, though, that as the relationship continues to gel between Williams, Cosworth and Bridgestone, then better results should be achievable. Michael, a man who is not prone to sticking his neck out and making bold predictions too often, is bullish about the team's prospects.
"The first thing we have got to do is look at where we are with the same tyre," he explains. "Clearly Ferrari did a better job because they finished in second place with Michael Schumacher. But they have been on Bridgestone tyres for six years, we have been on them for a few months, so they have an advantage there through consistency.
"They have got the same engine whereas we have just changed engine, so there are a lot of reasons. But Bahrain showed we can solidly deliver, but now we have to do it. So we want to go to Malaysia and put it up there."
There is certainly an air of confidence around Williams that has not been there for some time. The mood in the paddock towards Williams has been very supportive since the winter and there is no doubt there would be plenty of smiles in the paddock and press room if the Cosworth-powered team actually started mixing with, and beating, the manufacturers.
Michael says: "We were the fastest car out there in Bahrain, but after three or four laps to Michael and Fernando you can forget it, because of the field spread they have. I looked at the gap after three laps and it was 12.5 seconds. After 10 laps it stabilizes, but it doesn't matter. It is already over that by then.
"We know that, because we have raced like that before. But because we have been conservative for the last six months and people don't have quite the confidence we should have, we haven't run those type of (aggressive) strategies. But Malaysia will be a different strategy. We will turn everything on for Malaysia."
If Michael is right, then Williams could be about to gatecrash the victory party soon. And, judging by the evidence from Bahrain, you had better believe it.
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