Rally GB 2017
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Fourth fastest for Paddon seals eighth place in the rally unless anything weird happens further up.
Powerstage pace so far looks like this:
1 Breen
2 Lappi +2.5s
3 Sordo +4.3s
4 Paddon +4.4s
5 Ostberg +4.9s
Powerstage pace so far looks like this:
1 Breen
2 Lappi +2.5s
3 Sordo +4.3s
4 Paddon +4.4s
5 Ostberg +4.9s
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"We need to do a lot of work," says Lappi. "Also with the driving - I'm not saying I'm perfect. We need to learn a lot from this."
Lappi comes in second fastest to Breen, 2.5s done. Maybe Breen might sneak a point here after all, if the likes of Tanak and Evans take it easy to give Ogier a clear run at a bonus point. (Not that it's confirmed that they will, but if Autosport Live was running M-Sport right now that would be what we'd suggest to our drivers)
Lappi is now onto the stage. He's struggled this weekend and been baffled by the times Latvala could get out of a Toyota he never got the hang of in the Welsh mud.
All the Toyota drivers found the second passes of stages much harder too, so this won't be great for him.
In fact Lappi was clearly third best of the Toyotas on pace this weekend, with Juho Hanninen flying on Saturday. Unfortunately his final rally for the team ended in embarrassing fashion when he crashed on yesterday's Cholmondeley Castle spectator stage.
All the Toyota drivers found the second passes of stages much harder too, so this won't be great for him.
In fact Lappi was clearly third best of the Toyotas on pace this weekend, with Juho Hanninen flying on Saturday. Unfortunately his final rally for the team ended in embarrassing fashion when he crashed on yesterday's Cholmondeley Castle spectator stage.
Sordo comes in 4.3s slower than Breen.
Dani Sordo is next in. This is his last appearance of 2017 as Hyundai is dropping back to three cars for Neuville, Mikkelsen and Paddon in Australia.
It's not been a great one for Sordo and he tumbled away from the field last night in the fog for reasons he declined to explain. With Hyundai currently pondering exactly how Sordo and Paddon slot in alongside full-timers Neuville and Mikkelsen in 2018, a distant 10th won't do Sordo's case many favours.
It's not been a great one for Sordo and he tumbled away from the field last night in the fog for reasons he declined to explain. With Hyundai currently pondering exactly how Sordo and Paddon slot in alongside full-timers Neuville and Mikkelsen in 2018, a distant 10th won't do Sordo's case many favours.
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"We had some really good times so we can be pleased with that," says Breen. "But most importantly, I hope Elfyn gets his win. Bring it home, Elfyn."
Breen points out that he and Evans have a former co-driver in common in the late Gareth 'Jaffa' Roberts. A Welsh success would mean a lot to Breen, too.
Breen points out that he and Evans have a former co-driver in common in the late Gareth 'Jaffa' Roberts. A Welsh success would mean a lot to Breen, too.
Stopwatch
Unsurprisingly Breen is fastest so far. That probably won't hold up for a bonus point, though.
His hope of a good result in his nearest-to-home rally ended on Friday with first a puncture, then a trip off the road. We'll find out in half an hour if that's 13th, 14th or 15th overall when the WRC2 runners are in.
His hope of a good result in his nearest-to-home rally ended on Friday with first a puncture, then a trip off the road. We'll find out in half an hour if that's 13th, 14th or 15th overall when the WRC2 runners are in.
Al-Qassimi completes Rally GB. That'll probably work out as 22nd overall when the other classes come through.
Next through will be Khalid Al-Qassimi in the third Citroen, then Rally2 runner Craig Breen (who can probably get up to 13th overall on this one depending on how the WRC2 podium battle plays out), then the lower top 10 runners.
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"I'm glad to be at the end of the rally," says Ostberg. "It's been really disastrous for us. I'm very, very disappointed."
Green flag
The final has begun. Ostberg, struggling along under Rally2 but still grappling with the electrical problems that have ruined his week, is first up.
Information
A reminder of the order, with the stage start under 10 minutes away:
1 Evans
2 Neuville +43.1s
3 Ogier +49.1s
4 Mikkelsen +53.6s
5 Latvala +54.5s
6 Tanak +56.6s
7 Meeke +1m24.8s
8 Paddon +2m15.7s
9 Lappi +2m47.8s
10 Sordo +3m50.0s
(15 Breen +13m02.5s)
(somewhere further back tba Ostberg +37m50.8s)
1 Evans
2 Neuville +43.1s
3 Ogier +49.1s
4 Mikkelsen +53.6s
5 Latvala +54.5s
6 Tanak +56.6s
7 Meeke +1m24.8s
8 Paddon +2m15.7s
9 Lappi +2m47.8s
10 Sordo +3m50.0s
(15 Breen +13m02.5s)
(somewhere further back tba Ostberg +37m50.8s)
The spoiler is Mikkelsen.
He's Neuville's Hyundai team-mate and he's been flying all morning. He took fourth from Latvala on the last stage and is 4.5s behind Ogier. That's still a lot to overturn on the short stage, but he'll be giving it everything.
If Mikkelsen demotes Ogier to fourth and Neuville stays second, then Neuville gets the points gap down to 32 before powerstage bonuses are considered.
That would mean Neuville only needs to get two more points than Ogier on the powerstage (achievable by being two places higher than Ogier in the stage results) to keep the title open.
He's Neuville's Hyundai team-mate and he's been flying all morning. He took fourth from Latvala on the last stage and is 4.5s behind Ogier. That's still a lot to overturn on the short stage, but he'll be giving it everything.
If Mikkelsen demotes Ogier to fourth and Neuville stays second, then Neuville gets the points gap down to 32 before powerstage bonuses are considered.
That would mean Neuville only needs to get two more points than Ogier on the powerstage (achievable by being two places higher than Ogier in the stage results) to keep the title open.
Right now, Neuville is only on course to reduce Ogier's lead to 35 points as they run second and third overall.
To get it down to the magic 30 points that could keep the title fight alive, Neuville must score all five powerstage bonus points and Ogier must take zero here - i.e. not be in the five fastest stage times.
If they leave Wales equal, Neuville has a shot at snatching the title in Australia if he can pull off a maximum 30 points there and Ogier scores zero.
Tanak is currently out of it. He needs to outscore Ogier by seven points here and at present he's looking set to move seven points in the opposite direction relative to his team-mate.
You'd probably expect M-Sport to ask Tanak and Evans to take it fairly gently on the powerstage. If neither outpaces Ogier here, that increases his chances of the all-important bonus points by a good chunk.
To get it down to the magic 30 points that could keep the title fight alive, Neuville must score all five powerstage bonus points and Ogier must take zero here - i.e. not be in the five fastest stage times.
If they leave Wales equal, Neuville has a shot at snatching the title in Australia if he can pull off a maximum 30 points there and Ogier scores zero.
Tanak is currently out of it. He needs to outscore Ogier by seven points here and at present he's looking set to move seven points in the opposite direction relative to his team-mate.
You'd probably expect M-Sport to ask Tanak and Evans to take it fairly gently on the powerstage. If neither outpaces Ogier here, that increases his chances of the all-important bonus points by a good chunk.
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Our maths concurs with M-Sport's:
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As it stands, M-Sport will clinch its first manufacturers' title as a private team (and its first of any kind since taking Ford to the 2007 honours).
That's an amazing achievement against the factories in the first year of a massive rule change.
And you can't pin all that on the Ogier effect. Tanak's in the title fight too. The Fiesta is a championship-calibre car.
That's an amazing achievement against the factories in the first year of a massive rule change.
And you can't pin all that on the Ogier effect. Tanak's in the title fight too. The Fiesta is a championship-calibre car.
Unless anything goes horrible, painfully, heartbreakingly wrong for Evans, that Welsh home win is in the bag.
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OK, just under 20 minutes until the 2017 Rally GB finale begins.
Though it wasn't for the outright WRC title, let's give Craig Breen a nod for the championships he clinched in Britain too. In 2011 he beat Egon Kaur to the WRC Academy title on countback by winning 14(!) stages and the class. A year later, he beat PG Andersson to the Super 2000 WRC title, but in sombre circumstances. Breen's co-driver Gareth 'Jaffa' Roberts had died in a crash earlier that season, so Breen - who was partnered by Paul Nagle thereafter - was joined by Roberts' family as he sealed the SWRC crown.
It's now six years since Rally GB last decided the title, in 2011. That time Hirvonen suffered an engine failure, handing Loeb the title on SS8. That was just as well for Loeb; he crashed on a road section on the final day.
Hirvonen had a one-point lead heading into the finale two years later. He chased throughout Rally GB, but nosedived over a jump on the final loop and dropped a minute, killing his hopes of beating Loeb.
In 2007 the title-chasing Marcus Gronholm finished behind Ford team-mate Mikko Hirvonen in second o Rally GB, but even if team orders were employed he would've been two points shy of denying Loeb
Two years later was the only time Sebastien Loeb would be denied in a WRC title fight. Petter Solberg won the rally and the championship in a head-to-head with only a single point in it.
Onto 2001, and the last British champion. Tommi Makinen lost a wheel on the second stage, Colin McRae rolled his Ford Focus into oblivion, but Richard Burns scoreed a podium and secured his only title.
So, let's finish our run through the previous times in WRC history when the British round has been the scene of a title decider, put together by theAutosport Academy rallying group and in particular Alasdair Lindsay and Josh Suttill.
Just under half an hour to go until the stage that could decide the first title of the WRC's new era.
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"It's all OK," says Evans. "All in hand, I think. Obviously we need to concentrate now for the last 6kms."
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A safe fourth fastest time for Evans. His lead is 43.1s with one stage to go.
All looking calm and smooth on this stage for dominant leader Evans too.
Ogier is through fifth fastest, losing 2s to Mikkelsen. So he stays third, with a 4.5s cushion for the final stage.
Here's that gaggle:
2 Neuville
3 Ogier +6.0s
4 Mikkelsen +10.5s
5 Latvala +11.4s
6 Tanak +13.5s
Here's that gaggle:
2 Neuville
3 Ogier +6.0s
4 Mikkelsen +10.5s
5 Latvala +11.4s
6 Tanak +13.5s
Ogier's split is solid - a second off the absolute pace that Mikkelsen and Tanak have set. The champion had a 7.1s cushion back from his third place to the flying Mikkelsen's fifth at the start of this stage.
Neuville comes through third fastest, just 0.8s off Mikkelsen's benchmark.
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Latvala puts his loss of fourth place down to the same handling problems his team-mate Lappi has been experiencing on the second run of stages.
"The road is very, very polished and I can't get the grip. I can't get the car turning. This is absolutely the worst situation for our car. On this surface it's not working. I have to turn so many times in the corners and it's really, really frustrating."
"The road is very, very polished and I can't get the grip. I can't get the car turning. This is absolutely the worst situation for our car. On this surface it's not working. I have to turn so many times in the corners and it's really, really frustrating."
Neuville is a couple of seconds off Tanak and Mikkelsen at the split, but he does have a small amount of breathing space as he pulled clear on the earlier stages.
By: Matt Beer
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