Why a Mexico Formula E stat and superstition isn't a guide to the title race

An interesting stat kept popping up ahead of the Mexico City E-Prix: the race winner for the past three years has gone on to win the Formula E title.

It therefore dominated conversations last weekend and a person’s response will put them in one of two camps. There are those who believe in these things and see it as an omen for the year ahead, but then others have, let’s say, a more normal reaction by knowing it’s nothing more than a coincidence.

Just to give an example: in Mexico this writer was speaking to a West Ham United fan, who will stop watching a match if it’s going poorly - must happen all the time - whereas a Tottenham Hotspur supporter simply scoffed at such superstitions…maybe if they tried it, that team would have better luck.

But we digress. These two camps can be seen in all walks of life and the Formula E grid is no different; Oliver Rowland, who profited from a late safety car to win last year’s Mexico E-Prix, admitted “I’m quite superstitious” and that “often I believe in these things”.

Those sentiments were not exactly echoed by the champion from two years ago Pascal Wehrlein, who simply said “no, not really” when asked if he also believes in it. The man who started the streak, Jake Dennis, also offered a more relaxed response, so the question begs: which camp does Saturday’s winner Nick Cassidy belong to?

“I know Formula E too well,” he said, amid his sixth campaign of the series. “I've had some really bad starts to the season, but also some good starts and I’ve just got to be there for the whole time. Still 15 races left - it’s a long, long way to go.”

This came after a strategic masterclass gave the 31-year-old his 12th series victory, to which he put it “up there” as one of his best in Formula E, moving two shy of the record 14 wins held by Sebastien Buemi and Mitch Evans.

Cassidy was jumping for joy at his Mexico victory, putting him at the top of the early standings

Photo by: Hector Vivas / Getty Images

The Citroen driver, who delivered the French marque its maiden victory in only its second race of the all-electric championship, started from 13th on the grid after struggling in a dramatic qualifying which also saw pole favourite Wehrlein fail to reach the duels.

So Cassidy was never really in the potential victory conversations, but he put himself there by making a solid start before perfectly managing his energy and Attack Mode activation through the mid-race yellow flags to end strongly.

“Wow, for the team, for Citroen - what an entrance to Formula E,” he reacted. “This has been a dream start - very, very happy for everyone. It was quite different for me today. Don't know if I've ever taken a six minute and a two [Attack Mode activation]. It's quite rare, but it seemed to work.”

Cassidy will know not to jump the gun and celebrate too early, because no doubt the situation will look totally different once Miami is done with at the end of this month

It was a very typical Formula E contest and one which makes the Mexico stat even more interesting, because a person will often watch a race without a clue as to what’s actually happening. Crashes, yellow flags, different Attack Mode strategies plus deliberately dropping back to save energy makes the races hard to read, yet there’s something in this streak that maybe offers predictability amid the chaos. The fact that it belongs to Mexico is also rather fitting, given almost everybody within the paddock has it as their favourite race to attend - meaning it's good that the champion fares well there.

So, will it continue for a fourth year?

If it does then it’ll be very much welcomed by many, because Cassidy is arguably the best driver yet to win the title. He has twice finished as runner-up, plus won in other series such as the DTM, Super GT and Super Formula.

“He would be deserving,” said Rowland. “They’ve [Citroen] got a great driver, a great package and Nick's always competitive.”

Cassidy's strategic masterclass and strong late defensive delivered him one of his best Formula E wins

Photo by: Hector Vivas / Getty Images

So the New Zealander, who leads the championship by four points after finishing third at the Sao Paulo opener, has as good a chance as ever to do so but to reveal which camp this writer belongs to: it’s far too early to predict.

Because what Mexico did show is how competitive the grid is this year. Porsche, for example, looked nailed on for the pole battle thanks to its dominant powertrain, but it was instead contested between the Jaguar-powered Envision of Sebastien Buemi and the factory DS Penske of Taylor Barnard - neither of whom finished on the podium at the end of the day’s action.

Cassidy was instead joined by Mahindra’s Edoardo Mortara and Nissan’s Rowland, while Brazil victor Dennis was in fifth and Kiro rookie Pepe Marti finished seventh despite his back row start.

“We know how competitive it is this year,” added the reigning champion, who was runner-up at round one and sits third in the drivers’ championship. “So I think to score two podiums in the first two races is a really solid start to the season. It's just going to be tough. I think when you look at qualifying, how tight it is, and the level of drivers and teams here, it’s going to be a tough season.”

Such competitiveness even caught some out. Wehrlein, for example, was first to deploy his Attack Mode because he wanted to climb the order quickly and control the race from there, thinking overtaking would prove difficult. The opposite transpired.

Wehrlein was leading on lap five, before quickly dropping again once his four-minute Attack Mode had expired and he labelled the removal of the Turn 9-10 chicane in favour of one extra-long straight as the reason for it.

“There was a lot happening, probably more than expected,” said the ex-Formula 1 driver. “We didn't expect to be at the front after the first attack and we see that it's super close. We are in the fight, but there's room for improvement. We also see that if you don't have a perfect weekend anymore in Formula E, you are not going to win or even be on the podium.”

Cassidy will know not to jump the gun and celebrate too early, because no doubt the situation will look totally different once Miami is done with at the end of this month - meaning, please stop with the superstitions…

There's a long way to go in the Formula E title race, which Cassidy knows better than most, but his Mexico win puts him on the front foot

Photo by: Zak Mauger / LAT Images via Getty Images