Can anyone beat Stoffel Vandoorne to the Formula E title?

According to Betteridge’s law of headlines, “any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no.” In that case, thanks for reading. Be sure to subscribe to Autosport Plus, and we’ll see you next season...

...except, that’s not the case. Although Stoffel Vandoorne now sits atop the Formula E standings with a 36-point lead heading into the remaining Seoul double-header, business is not yet concluded. London’s races at the ExCeL centre, particularly on the Sunday, did Vandoorne a solid as Mitch Evans succumbed to electrical issues while running ahead of the Mercedes driver in fourth place. Thus, the lead could have been 22 points, but instead Evans’s retirement yielded an instantaneous 14-point swing in Vandoorne’s favour.

That, allied to Formula E’s general chaotic nature, provides ample reason why Vandoorne could theoretically leave South Korea empty-handed, as fortune in London could capriciously volte-face and sting the Mercedes driver at any point. It’s unlikely, of course – and the 30-year-old could also end Saturday’s race with the title already wrapped up if he remains 30 points ahead of everyone else at the end of the day.

The key permutations are thus: if Vandoorne wins in Seoul on Saturday, he’s sewn it up a day early. If he finishes second or third, Evans needs to have won to remain in the game. Then there’s the small matter of points for pole and fastest lap – the latter, of course, decisive in the 2015-16 duel between Sebastien Buemi and Lucas di Grassi. If Vandoorne turns up to Seoul with his usual brand of consistency in hand, it’s a somewhat binary challenge for Evans: win on Saturday to stay in on Sunday.

Both as an individual and as a driver, Vandoorne has a consistently unflappable demeanour and, if there’s any nerves ahead of the finale in Korea, he’s been able to hide them rather well. It’s not just the Belgian’s own title aspirations that he has to consider, but also Mercedes’ bid to sign off from Formula E with a second teams’ title on the bounce.

“I’m feeling good,” Vandoorne says in a mixed media call ahead of his departure to Seoul. “I mean, I've been on a pretty good run recently of consistently scoring points. Now I just have to conclude it, basically, which maybe sounds easier than it is. There's still some tough competition, some quick guys, and I still have to do the job. I'm going in with the same approach really as I've had since the start of the year, taking it race by race, and as a team make sure that we have a competitive car.

Consistency has led Vandoorne to the brink of the Formula E title

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

“It would be great to be able to pull it off for two years in a row. I mean, Nyck won the championship last year, we won the teams' last year and currently we're leading both championships as well. Hopefully we can finish it off in style in Seoul and, because it's the last race of Mercedes, it would be a beautiful end to that story as well. I said at the start of the year that I want to give them a good leaving party, so hopefully we'll be able to do that!”

But in holding the race at Seoul’s Sport Complex, used for the 1988 Summer Olympics, every team and driver will be vaulting into an unknown circuit – and with rain expected throughout the weekend as Seoul suffered its heaviest downpours in decades in the week prior to the race, leaving areas of the city flooded. But those are variables that will affect everyone – not just Vandoorne. Sure, the drivers have been stocking up on laps in the simulator to get a grasp for the layout, but the more detailed empirical data cannot be digested until everyone gets to the track.

And Vandoorne’s wary of that – but equally, he feels that Mercedes has been able to bring a good baseline to new circuits across its time in Formula E. You wouldn’t usually expect a race driver to let any lack of confidence slip out anyway, but Vandoorne feels ready for the challenge.

"I obviously need to win race one and then have another go at winning the next race. So we'll be working hard to try and make sure we're going there with the right set-up and the right approach. We're fighters" Mitch Evans

"Obviously, there's a lot of unknowns for everybody, and no one really knows what it's going to be like exactly,” Vandoorne explains. “Even though everyone has been preparing on the simulator and stuff, we won't really know with the Tarmac how the tyres behave, and we just don't have any historical data there. So it definitely brings some level of randomness, but I feel as a team we are usually doing quite well when we go to new venues. I think we prepare well, we manage to read situations maybe a little bit better than others. I'm not saying we are better than others, but I'm feeling positive and confident about going to a new venue, so I'm looking forward to it.”

Aside from the variables such as weather and any randomness associated with the new circuit, one also cannot discount Evans. The Kiwi endured a difficult start to the year as Jaguar looked off-the-boil at the Diriyah and Mexico City rounds, but immediately rallied with a double win in Rome. Even Berlin, which Evans considers the team’s weak spot, came and went with a decent haul of points in the spotted jaguar-print bag.

Evans remains in title contention but knows he must win the Seoul opener to put pressure on Vandoorne

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

Of course, London’s second race was a dreadful time for Evans to face his first retirement of the year – especially as it made Vandoorne’s life so much easier. But Jakarta, the other new venue on this season’s calendar, was a dream round for Evans as he chalked up a third win of 2021-22. It’s only a sample set of one, and any statistician worth their salt would not consider it a trend. But it’s at least a glimmer of hope, and Evans isn’t about to give up on it.

“I guess the slight lesson is one, obviously it's still mathematically possible and two, it's a whole new venue,” Evans told Autosport sanguinely after his London retirement. “It's not Berlin, thank God, but it’s a new venue and a lot of things can happen in Formula E.

“I obviously need to win probably race one and then have another go at winning the next race. So we'll be working hard to try and make sure we're going there with the right set-up and the right approach. We're fighters, you know that as you've seen in some of my races, I don't give up, and the team definitely doesn't. They want it bad. All we can do is go there with the mentality to try and win the race and then leave it up to the rest.

“For now, [retirement in London] hurts and I just want to get to Seoul and try and capitalise on it, but obviously we need to do our homework and go there with the right approach. It was a strange week in London to be honest, one-lap pace has not quite been there. But the race pace has been really strong. Qualifying is something we need to work on for Korea.”

Mortara has already declared his title fight over despite mathematically still being in the battle

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

Although Edoardo Mortara is only five points behind Evans, the ultimate 41-point gap between the Swiss driver and Vandoorne is a bit more of a stretch. It looked good for Mortara for so long, but a dismal weekend at the ExCeL in which he struggled to find any pace in qualifying contrived to open the chasm between him and the top of the championship.

New York wasn’t exactly what Mortara needed either, with Saturday penalties and a brake-by-wire failure in Sunday’s qualifying session leaving the Geneva-born driver with just a handful of points collected from the Brooklyn double-header. Although Mortara can still win the title, he – like Evans – needs a win in race one and hope Vandoorne scores fewer than 10 points to stay in the fight on Sunday. It’s a tenuous grasp on the title fight and Mortara has already suggested that his title run was over after Saturday’s London race, saying “the gap is too big to be thinking about championships.” But Mortara at least has half-a-chance.

That’s more than can be said for Jean-Eric Vergne, who trails by 57 points after failing to score in four straight races, and needs to win both Seoul races, with pole and fastest laps in both – and hope Vandoorne scores nothing while also beating Evans and Mortara. If he doesn’t get pole on Saturday, he’s out of the fight already. No pressure then.

Although Vandoorne is the odds-on favourite to claim his first racing title since the 2015 GP2 crown, he still has competition – and Seoul will be a true test of managing those championship aspirations. If he keeps it clean, the spoils will be his...but if he drops the ball, you can count on Evans to pick it up and pose a threat.

Can Vandoorne hold his nerve in Seoul?

Photo by: Alastair Staley / Motorsport Images