Why the F1 season starting back in Melbourne means advantage McLaren and Ferrari, not Red Bull

Disregarding seasons featuring pandemic delays, Australia and Bahrain have split hosting Formula 1’s season-openers going back almost 30 years. And the results of these races in recent championships make for very different readings for the teams expected to battle out the 2025 campaign.

Of the three most recent Bahrain races, Red Bull and Ferrari have shared the wins 2:1. Mercedes’ top result was Lewis Hamilton’s shock third in 2022, but without Red Bull’s fuel-system-failure-double-DNF that year its best would only be fifth. For McLaren, things are even worse, with a sixth for Lando Norris last year its top result in the same run. The orange team had not scored a point in Bahrain post-2021, with badly interrupted Bahrain test sessions in the following two years.

For Australia, the victory split since 2022 is 2:1 again, but this time in Ferrari’s favour against Red Bull. Mercedes took two podiums in the two years before its Melbourne double DNF last season, with McLaren third and fourth in 2024 after being adrift of the podium battle in both 2022 and 2023.

With the Bahrain race back to round four in 2025 as a result of the timing of Ramadan, this historic form suggests the biggest impact of the schedule change is likely to be felt at Red Bull. The Milton Keynes squad is already heading to Melbourne off the back of a disrupted pre-season test – reliability niggles and a poor reaction to set-up experiments were laid as the RB21’s early narratives. Max Verstappen has even said: “I don’t think we can fight for the win already in Melbourne.”

If Bahrain were set to stage the opener, the Dutchman might be more optimistic. It’s where Red Bull’s previous strength in tyre preservation could usually be seen. After all, the rough Bahrain track surface has tended to expose teams with less stable aerodynamic platforms, with the added car sliding and tyre degradation seen during the early phase of the new rules era. Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren have all faced that issue in the Gulf state.

The 2022 Bahrain GP was a straight fight between Verstappen and Charles Leclerc, whereas the former was blown away by the latter in Melbourne just two races on (more on what this means for Ferrari later) as the RB18’s early weight issues bit hard. In 2023, the lead RB19 finished 38.6 seconds clear of its closest challenger. Last year, even for the more recalcitrant RB20, the advantage was 25.1 seconds.

Red Bull won't return to its happy hunting ground of Bahrain until round four in 2025

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

How the Bahrain pecking order will now evolve given the smaller overall gaps between the top cars – and the Red Bull drivers having to push harder as a consequence – will be seen soon.

As Verstappen appears to be aware, Melbourne’s restoration (at least temporarily) as the season-opener may not be such good news for the world champion and his crew as they hunt for a strong start. Let’s take a closer look at the historic formbook.

In the Australian event’s first race back on the F1 schedule post-pandemic, Verstappen and Leclerc were the leading lights again, but the Ferrari driver was really in complete command from start to finish and well ahead even before Verstappen’s late retirement with another early-2022 fuel system issue. This was unrelated to the one that struck Red Bull in Bahrain and a reminder of how far teams have come in reliability in this rules era, even with regard to inevitable early-season teething troubles.

"We’ve got so many unique circuits on the calendar now that we’re still going to be going to China, the weekend after, not knowing whether it’s going to be the same or completely different" Oscar Piastri

But the following year, with the RB19’s massive overall prowess, Verstappen dominated in Melbourne after George Russell’s early surge to the lead for Mercedes. In 2024, Verstappen was pegged back by Carlos Sainz even as his brake issue was striking (although he probably did have pace in hand to win again with a faultless run).

In fact, Ferrari heads to Australia with solid form in Melbourne that even predates the pandemic. The Scuderia was victorious here amidst Mercedes’ run of crushing dominance as the turbo hybrid era kicked off, with Sebastian Vettel winning in 2017 and 2018.

The red cars are always well cheered by the city’s considerable Italian community. Indeed, this is a factor race organiser the Australian Grand Prix Corporation (AGPC) claims is behind consistently strong ticket sales that have it eying toppling Silverstone’s current spot as the biggest race on the calendar in terms of total spectator numbers.

In recent years Ferrari has often jumped its rivals - even during Mercedes' era of domination

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If it wants to do this, the AGPC will have to squeeze in even more temporary grandstand seating to Albert Park. But insiders suggest such expansion is only coming over the full duration of Melbourne’s contract to 2037, which only comes into force next year.

Ferrari has Hamilton driving the box office at so many F1 events in 2025, but both team and driver left 2025 testing as the biggest unknowns among the leading contenders. This is due to the apparent gearbox hydraulics problem that thwarted Hamilton’s race sim on the final evening of the three-day event in Bahrain.

Leclerc, however, was at least close with Mercedes during a day two long run. And Ferrari typically gains more than the other frontrunners when turning the testing caveats on fuel loads and engine modes into reality (comparing Bahrain test and race data since 2022, at least).

Mercedes did show very strongly in Bahrain testing – but the unusually cool conditions there mean the team still doesn’t have a true reading on whether it has successfully addressed the tendency for its package to only really work in low temperatures.

And it is going to be a scorcher at times this weekend. Temperatures north of 33C are predicted for qualifying, although race day seems set to be closer to 25C at this stage.

And so to McLaren – the ‘winner’ of pre-season after seemingly carrying over the narrow performance advantage with which it ended last season. The true extent of this will be revealed soon, and, again, it’s worth remembering that the specific nature of the Bahrain track surface will have played a part in the data accrued from testing. But even with this in mind, McLaren insiders suggest it has succeeded in improving its car package in terms of traction and stability through the tight turns so prevalent at the track owned by McLaren Group controller, Mumtalakat (the Bahrain sovereign wealth fund).

It is easy to pick out the home favourites for the 2025 opener

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

Bahrain has been so awful for McLaren since 2022 that it can surely head to this year’s relocated season-opener with grounds for optimism.

“I think Melbourne is probably more representative than Bahrain as an opening circuit,” home hero Oscar Piastri said at McLaren’s Silverstone launch event last month. “Certainly for us in the last few years as well, Bahrain has not been our strongest circuit, but Melbourne has often boded quite well for us.

“I think it’s definitely a little bit more of a better picture than Bahrain as a season-opener. But we’ve got so many unique circuits on the calendar now that we’re still going to be going to China, the weekend after, not knowing whether it’s going to be the same or completely different.”

Even if the 2025 season is closer than pre-season suggested in terms of Red Bull being at the centre of the fight with McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes, there is the distinct possibility one team will take early momentum

Making good on testing form when the real competition is on is never guaranteed.

But, even if the 2025 season is closer than the pre-season suggested it might be in terms of Red Bull being at the centre of the wider fight with McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes, there is the distinct possibility one team will take early momentum from the first double-header.

Combining historic trends with the testing form, then it’s advantage McLaren and Ferrari as F1 2025 gets going.

Which team will strike first in F1 2025?

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images