Why Ricciardo's McLaren move is the right one

5. McLaren is a team on the up

At the end of 2020, Daniel Ricciardo will be on the move again - this time from Renault to McLaren. His decision closed the Ferrari/McLaren seat swap saga that began when Sebastian Vettel's impending departure from Maranello was announced and Carlos Sainz Jr was revealed as Vettel's replacement.

Of the many factors behind Ricciardo's decision to join his fifth F1 squad, following stints at HRT, Toro Rosso and Red Bull, the headline selling point is McLaren's recent resurgence. After the three years of misery and pain with Honda, followed by a revealing first year using Renault customer power, the eight-time constructors' champion squad finished fourth in 2019 - its best result since 2012 - one place and 54 points clear of Ricciardo's current employer.

Much of this is down to the major staffing restructure McLaren has enacted. Zak Brown felt when he became McLaren Racing CEO in November 2016 that there were "a lot of chefs in the kitchen" causing a "lack of focus and direction". Brown has suggested that Ricciardo decided in favour of Renault over McLaren back in 2018 because he couldn't see where McLaren was heading. But now he can.

Last year, Brown installed Andreas Seidl and James Key as McLaren's team principal and technical director. But major changes had already begun before they arrived, as shown by McLaren's 2019 MCL34 making clear aerodynamic progress as the squad learned from its 2018 chassis shortcomings.

While there is evidence of McLaren's progress through late 2018 and last year, another factor that should not be understated in Ricciardo's move is how his upcoming new home is planning for the future.

Whether that's by making painful cuts to see it through the immediate pain of the COVID-19 pandemic's economic shock - as well as operate as an efficient outfit under F1's new financial rules - or by last year committing to building a new windtunnel and driver-in-loop simulator, McLaren now looks like a team that has fought its fires and is finally ready to rise again from the ashes. And Ricciardo will get to ride that wave.

4. The Seidl factor

Seidl's decision to join McLaren was announced in January 2019, and although he didn't start work until four months later - once his Porsche gardening leave was completed - it was still quite the coup. The 44-year old was set to lead Porsche's Formula E team (as he had its ultra-successful LMP1 squad - to three Le Mans 24 Hours/World Endurance Championship doubles) and the marque's motorsport division overall. To any driver, and Ricciardo will no doubt be well aware how highly regarded Seidl is by his former charges, that leadership boosts McLaren.

Since Seidl began his stint as McLaren's team principal - a title he requested due to his fondness for 'traditional' racing programme structures (his predecessor Eric Boullier was racing director) - Seidl has been quietly and efficiently making his mark. Whereas McLaren was infamous for its complex organisation, which led to responsibilities such as car design being shared by several people, Seidl has streamlined things. His 'leadership team' is Key, Andrea Stella as racing director, Piers Thynne as production director, and Paul James as team manager.

This directional clarity has helped McLaren implement another important aspect of Seidl's method, which is to foster a positive culture that emphasises togetherness. This applies to the drivers too, and Sainz's relationship with Lando Norris - who will remain as Ricciardo's team-mate in 2021 - was a joy to behold in 2019, and clearly filtered down the ranks at McLaren.

Ultimately, Seidl has a proven track record of success. BMW Sauber became a race-winning F1 squad during his time there as head of track operations, while BMW immediately won in the DTM when he managed its return as director of race operations in 2012. This is backed up further by how keenly Seidl's departure was felt by Porsche's fledgling Formula E outfit.

Brown sees Ricciardo's arrival as a further signal of McLaren's progress, and says Vettel was never an option for a direct swap with Sainz. Former McLaren star Fernando Alonso is also on the sidelines, but he has long indicated that any F1 return rests on an immediate race-winning seat. McLaren isn't there yet, but in Ricciardo it has hired a younger, proven race winner, who will be ready to take that chance when it comes, and can in the meantime provide a new reference for Norris and the rest of the team.

3. Mercedes power on the horizon

From the start of next season, McLaren-Mercedes will again be an F1 force. It might not be the successful de facto works operation it once was, but McLaren moving back to Stuttgart power after what will be six years away matters double for Ricciardo.

Mercedes power is still undefeated in the turbo hybrid era and, thanks to its controversial settlement with the FIA, Ferrari's recent advantage in this area seems to be on the wane - if indications from a previous lifetime's winter testing can be firmly believed right now. Mercedes' engines are also generally more reliable than the current customer Renault units McLaren is buying, despite the unusually high rate of attrition seen on the works car's units and at Williams during 2020 pre-season testing.

Ultimately, McLaren lost some big results to patchy reliability in 2019, and it's worth remembering that Honda's sketchy record was a factor in Ricciardo's decision to jump ship from Red Bull to Renault in 2018 - a point to where his contact with McLaren can also be traced.

From McLaren's perspective, it targeted a Mercedes reunion as part of its plan to move up the grid, which will have given Ricciardo added confidence. Mercedes also feels the new deal is beneficial. And the reunion is also unaffected by the regulatory decision to keep the 2020 cars effectively in service through 2021 as a coronavirus cost-saving measure. The MCL35 has even been granted dispensation to be altered to fit the Mercedes engine it was not designed to house. Indeed, Toto Wolff has already stated that his operation's sole "risk" regarding this new arrangement is that McLaren could become a direct competitor...

The big unknown in all of this from Ricciardo's perspective is just where McLaren sits in the current competitive order.

Judging by form and car behaviour in pre-season testing, the 2020 McLaren looks to be ahead of the Renault RS20, but behind present Mercedes customer Racing Point (soon to become Aston Martin), which appears to be leading the way in the midfield with its Mercedes W10-inspired design.

The abandonment of the Australian Grand Prix before it began means we have no unequivocal evidence to support this picture yet. Nevertheless, Ricciardo has clearly seen something in McLaren's makeup, even if he insists there was no single factor in his decision to leave Enstone and head for Woking.

2. Leaving the glory to Esteban

One of the most interesting aspects of Ricciardo's decision is that by choosing to leave Renault at the end of 2020 he will be exiting a team that has just installed a highly rated young star in Esteban Ocon. Ricciardo left Red Bull just as Max Verstappen was beginning to gain a decisive upper hand at that team, and some will no doubt suggest this is a version of history repeating itself.

That would be rather disingenuous to Ricciardo given Renault's 2020 line-up hasn't raced yet thanks to the pandemic delays. But Renault has long targeted Ocon. He was in and around the operation as far back as 2016, when as newly crowned GP3 champion he became the squad's reserve driver despite his Mercedes ties, and Renault subsequently jettisoned Nico Hülkenberg to bring Ocon in on a two-year deal despite Hülkenberg enjoying a decent 2019 season alongside Ricciardo.

In the past ten years only once, in 2011, have the Enstone squad's drivers finished the season with similar points totals, so it may well be that Ricciardo balanced this against Ocon's potential, the team's keenness to bring Ocon in, and Ricciardo's own lucrative deal ending soon, and made a decisive call given there is so much positivity surrounding McLaren.

At the same time, a return to F1's Class A was effectively closed to Ricciardo. Ferrari, despite maintaining contact for several years now, picked Sainz to partner long-term star Charles Leclerc, and Red Bull is committed to giving Alexander Albon a shot at keeping his place for 2021. Sainz's deal also ended any remote chance of Lewis Hamilton leaving Mercedes at the end of 2020, and rumours that Renault has sounded out Valtteri Bottas about joining a team he was linked to previously in 2016 only surfaced after Ricciardo made his call to leave, so the chances of a Mercedes 'swap' deal were always remote.

Ricciardo has given up effective lead-driver status at a works operation, which may sound odd but makes sense given the current climate in the automotive industry - to which his current team is inexorably tied.

1. Renault's uncertain future

If McLaren's form is the headline selling point for Ricciardo's decision, it is the uncertainty surrounding the future of his current squad that is perhaps the most significant factor.

Two weeks after Ricciardo's impending switch was announced, Clotilde Delbos - Renault's chief financial officer and acting CEO - publicly stated the company remains "committed to Formula 1". This followed team boss Cyril Abiteboul's positive suggestions that Renault would see the benefit of F1's new cost-control and (minor) performance-balancing measures. Indeed, Delbos cited the new financial rules as "very good for us".

But the underlying problem has not gone away, which is that the full economic bite of the pandemic and lockdowns are only just starting to bear down. Renault has a history of leaving F1 during times of economic downturn, and so there remains a significant chance the team in its current guise may not be around next year.

After all, positive vocal commitments are often made even when wheels are about to be set in motion to the opposite effect. This applies to many companies in many industries. Also, no team is legally committed to F1 beyond 2020, given fresh Concorde Agreements remain unsigned.

Renault is part state-owned, whereas McLaren has considerable private resources on which to draw for its new efficiency-driven future. Force India/Racing Point has already established itself as a leader in doing more with less, which is the challenge all F1 teams now face. McLaren can also now demonstrate clear progress on the track, while Renault has gone backwards and (so far) failed to achieve the targets set out ahead of its 2016 comeback.

Renault, which remains linked to both Vettel and a reunion with Alonso at the time of writing, was clearly irked by Ricciardo's unexpected decision to jump ship - Abiteboul didn't even say his driver's name when commenting on the news.

The feeling is perhaps understandable. After all, Ricciardo's decision to switch teams is as damning an indictment of Renault's stagnant F1 status as it is an affirmation of McLaren's increasingly impressive renaissance.