Why Haas is a crunch barometer of F1's biggest improvers in 2024

August’s break was probably particularly welcomed by the teams. The first part of this record-length season was hectic to say the least – but, as they assembled in Zandvoort, how might they have assessed their performance over the previous months? The answer will vary from the delight of McLaren through the concern of Red
Bull to the possible despair of Sauber.

The season opener in Bahrain suggested a degree of inevitability with Max Verstappen on pole by nearly a quarter of a second but at the same time the field was extremely close: the gap from first to last in Q1 was only 1.15%, or just over one second.

However, the Red Bull 1-2 in the race didn’t bode well for a season of surprises, and Saudi only reinforced the view. Verstappen on pole by a similar amount, the field close in qualifying, but another Red Bull 1-2 led to an awful feeling of déjà vu.

Now I always preach that one should not draw conclusions from small samples of data and so it proved as the season progressed. It’s a matter of record that while Australia brought a rare retirement for Verstappen and a disappointing fifth place for Perez, the Red Bull machine marched on and the record of seven wins from the 14 races that led up to the break is a great achievement. Behind that headline, though, are several unexpected stories.

It's always difficult to determine absolute performance since so many external factors influence total lap time. In the race itself the engine mode, or more specifically the manner in which the hybrid electrical energy is harvested or deployed, has a major effect on lap time.

So too does the use of DRS, which is worth up to one second on an average track. Couple this with following-car effects – and the fact drivers spend most of the race doing some form of tyre conservation – and one can see race lap times aren’t necessarily worthy of inspection.

The competitive order has shifted notably since the early rounds of Red Bull domination

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

In qualifying one can assume maximum energy deployment, DRS will be used for all cars, and drivers are striving for maximum performance. Even this leads to difficulties.

There’s always an element of track evolution if climatic conditions remain constant. This makes it difficult to quantify the absolute performance of those eliminated in Q1 to the ultimate performance in Q3. In addition, with drivers striving for the absolute limit, it’s unusual to achieve the perfect lap. There will always be some error, or a corner or braking point where the driver will feel he could have found more.

Perhaps most significantly, tyre preparation on the out-lap before the qualifying lap has a huge effect and, in a hectic Q1 session, it’s not always easy for the driver to find the gap he wants to bring his tyres in perfectly to gain maximum performance through the entire qualifying lap.

If we take Haas as a baseline, which is valid since it has maintained similar performance with minimal upgrades, we can see that the gap between Red Bull and Haas has remained constant

Another factor, if one is to consider the actual lap time, is the nature of the track. Some cars perform better in a high-speed track than a street circuit, and others vice-versa.

This can be partially understood by splitting the circuit into slow, medium and high-speed sectors as well as straights. A knowledge of the sensitivities of each sector to different performance factors can refine this.

Unfortunately, only the teams have access to the simulations that allow fitting of a specific speed profile to assess this accurately, but some generalisations can help inform estimates. For example, an improvement of 10kW in engine power will generally improve lap time by a quarter of a second – although obviously less in Monaco and more in circuits like Suzuka. Equally, a car with good performance in high-speed corners will have better relative performance at Silverstone than Monaco.

So, having explained all the reasons why it’s difficult to quantify relative performance accurately, what can we deduce from the first part of the season? The obvious is the huge gain in competitiveness made by McLaren and recent improvement from Mercedes.

McLaren has made a notable improvement, but characterising exactly where it has gained relative to Red Bull isn't the work of a moment

Photo by: Alastair Staley / Motorsport Images

That both use the same engine isn’t a factor since engine development is now frozen by regulation pending the new power units in 2026, so we can assume engine performance is a constant. The FIA itself has stated that while the Alpine engine lacks somewhat, the others are all relatively similar. The question is, have these two teams, and Alpine and Williams for that matter, improved or has Red Bull lost performance?

If we take Haas as a baseline, which is valid since it has maintained similar performance with minimal upgrades, we can see that the gap between Red Bull and Haas has remained constant. McLaren has moved closer to Red Bull by just over 0.25s and Mercedes just under this, Williams by about 0.1s and Alpine about half a second.  

Conversely, Ferrari and RB seem to have dropped back by a quarter second, Sauber by 0.15s, and Aston Martin by 0.35s. So at the front we see definite improvements by the challengers. If we again consider generalised sensitivities, this time in aero, one might deduce that McLaren has gained around 11 points of downforce relative to Red Bull and Mercedes nine while Ferrari has lost nine points relative to Red Bull.

Even establishing these comparative numbers is difficult, the absolute numbers even more so. In other words, has Red Bull actually gained, say, 10 points and therefore McLaren 21? This is much more difficult to establish.

What’s clear is that in 14 races we’ve seen seven different winners in four different cars and very strong comebacks from McLaren and Mercedes. In the last race before the break the first six finished within 10 seconds of each other with no interventions and different strategies. This above all bodes well for the rest of the championship.

Can Verstappen preserve his advantage in the second half of the 2024 season?

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images