What we learned in Friday practice for the 2025 F1 Italian GP

As the red-tinged fervour howls through the remainder of the forest around Monza, it's hard not to recognise its symbolism in Formula 1. This is one of the great throwback venues, and yet thankfully remains part of the championship's core; other venues have been considered an inconvenient millstone, as F1 tries its best to avoid being weighed down by its 75-year history.

While its reputation for roaring speeds has permeated through the annals of history, it's also true that Monza presents an exercise in risk and restraint. As drivers square up against the kerbs and the track limits, aiming to find the extremities of lap time in low-grip conditions without scraping their floors along the gravel, the teams' engineers must also find the peak trade-off between trimming out drag and leaving enough downforce to traverse Monza's array of corners. It's the only track where aero packages are bespoke, rather than a one-size-fits-all arrangement that covers all bases.

Italy's premier race circuit (sorry Imola) is, despite its age and ubiquity, misunderstood. It's not just a series of long straights divided by chicanes, but a circuit that requires commitment through the Lesmos, Variante Ascari, and the Parabolica. You lose time by not trimming out enough for the straights, but you also lose time by not keeping hold of enough downforce through the more serious corners.

With the current cars, it's easier to do both if the floor is effective. McLaren demonstrated that in the early stages of this weekend's edition of the Italian Grand Prix, despite occasional moments of waywardness and difficulty in dialling itself in for runs. FP2 chart-topper Lando Norris ran himself out of road on occasion and aborted a few tilts at the best time of the session, but eventually managed to settle in with a 1m19.878s during the soft-tyre runs. This surpassed Lewis Hamilton's best time of FP1 by almost a quarter of a second.

Ferrari, however, remained competitive. While McLaren had arrived in Monza with bespoke wings, running a back-to-back between its conventional straight-edged low-downforce geometry and a variant with a spoon-shaped mainplane, Ferrari had a version of what the team had run at last year's Monza round. The Scuderia couldn't quite stretch to headlining both Friday practice sessions, but Charles Leclerc ran Norris close with a time 0.083s off by the close of the session. Not to be outdone, Leclerc had his own moments playing in the gravel at the close of FP2, albeit with more panache as he bothered the kitty litter to bypass the entirety of the Ascari corners.

So, are we braced for Ferrari versus McLaren for a second year in a row? Not so, it seems - at least when it comes to the question of qualifying; Red Bull reckons it has a chance, while Williams also demonstrated that it might be able to figure in an environment where it can make use of its latent straightline speed.

Max Verstappen encountered a "jumpy" and "nervous" RB21 on the bumps, which led to his soft-tyre exploits bearing little in the way of fruit until he set a 1m20.077s - a time good enough for sixth. "We know where we are, and 0.2 seconds behind is to be picked up," said advisor Helmut Marko, who appeared to be a touch more gleeful than his usual self.

A handful of contenders demonstrated impressive pace on Friday at Monza, including Verstappen and the McLaren pair

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Williams has also thrown its hat into the ring. The Grove squad tends to turn the wick up on its engine modes through practice, and thus it could be assumed that it may well fall back, but it also has terrific acceleration qualities. Much of Williams' developments over the past three years has been underpinned by a desire to have a more rounded car, strong in more areas than just on-throttle. But that doesn't mean it has had to sacrifice that strength, and the FW47 does appear to be a dark horse for something good in Italy... if, of course, said pace translates into tomorrow's sessions.

Norris, meanwhile, reckoned that the Ferraris et al were "a bit close to my liking at the minute" as McLaren struggled to forge a decisive advantage. But the Mercedes powertrains, per the available GPS data, appeared to be turned down; versus Leclerc's best time of the session, Norris' headliner could be down by 5-10km/h on the straights - but running at fewer revs. Since the Briton is on the limit with his engine allowances, it would not be wholly surprising to see McLaren take a more circumspect approach with his remaining powerplants. That's the theory, anyway - but others may also be hiding an ace card up their sleeves for qualifying.

Long run analysis: McLaren finds 0.2s per lap on Red Bull

Marko's almost-uncharacteristic optimism continued with an assertion that Red Bull could challenge for victory on Sunday. "[It's] an incredible increase compared to last year," he said after FP2. "I think we were competitive in the long run. So far we are very, very satisfied. We have a different philosophy now [to 2024] and this seems to work.

Verstappen echoed Marko and suggested that it was "quite a decent" brace of Friday sessions. The Dutchman usually strays away from hyperbole in that context, so there's a real contentment among the Red Bull higher-ups

"The tyre wear, what we saw so far, looks very good. We only need more traction on the soft tyre, but that I think we can achieve without changing the wing position. We hope to fight with some others for the win, if McLaren doesn't show up with something extra tomorrow."

Average FP2 medium tyre runs

Per our calculations across the long runs on medium tyres, Red Bull still has a little way to go versus McLaren to fully bridge the gap, but that doesn't mean it's an insurmountable deficit. Norris was a touch more consistent over his longer run, once he felt settled enough in the car to reel off a series of race-equivalent laps, although Verstappen generally found the nervousness was less of an issue in the longer runs and instead was more bothered by the impact of gravel straying onto the track surface.

Verstappen and Red Bull were encouraged by its early showing compared to its 2024 nightmare at this track

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Nonetheless, Verstappen echoed Marko and suggested that it was "quite a decent" brace of Friday sessions. The Dutchman usually strays away from hyperbole in that context, so there's a real contentment among the Red Bull higher-ups.

Versus Norris, Piastri's long run was a little bit further off that of his team-mate. The Australian gave up FP1 for McLaren junior driver Alex Dunne, and thus probably needed a little more time to get into the cut-and-thrust of the session. You'd expect him to be more up to speed in FP3; last time out at Zandvoort, Norris had come out of the blocks fastest anyway, before Piastri found the edge in the more important sessions of the weekend.

Is Williams in the mix with Ferrari and Mercedes?

When asked if Williams could pose a threat to Red Bull, Marko stated that the FW47s "are not so consistent" - however, the overall pace should match up with the Ferrari and Mercedes drivers if our extrapolations are correct.

As Sauber explored both hard and medium-tyre runs, we can create a very loose estimate of just over 0.2s between them based on the difference between Bortoleto and Hulkenberg. It's not a very scientific estimate, but assuming both cars were run to largely the same specification and fuel load (given their long runs were of similar length) then we can at least guess where Mercedes and Ferrari are likely to shake out. If anyone feels that this is slightly too ropey, Pirelli has at least done us the favour of suggesting the same 0.2-second delta between medium (C4) and hard (C3) tyre.

Average FP2 hard tyre runs

If we subtract the 0.2s off George Russell's Mercedes run and from that of Hamilton's Ferrari run (Leclerc only did his longer runs on softs), it should put them between Norris and Verstappen in the overall timing stakes. That said, their runs were slightly inconsistent; even without any rudimentary time-fudging, they're in the Williams ballpark. All things considered, and when one considers the usual patterns of who keeps their engines turned up or down, they should be ahead.

But Williams should be aiming for a good result in qualifying at least. Isack Hadjar proved in Zandvoort that, even without a car belonging to any of the top four teams, it's possible to interlope on a Saturday and then convert that into a result on Sunday. Straightline speed is a potent weapon, and Williams must be ready to wield it.

Williams might be able to run with the top teams and will hope to spring a surprise like Hadjar did in the Dutch GP

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For Mercedes, Sunday might be more of a struggle. Given that Monza is predisposed to presenting a series of one-stop strategies, with a softer range of tyres available and conditions expected to remain warm this weekend, it feels like there's too many variables that stray out of the Brackley squad's favour. "It didn't feel amazing out there and I was struggling for a bit of confidence and I had a few moments, similar to like Kimi [Antonelli, who went off after Lesmo 2 in FP2]," Russell explained after the session. "It was just difficult to keep the car in a good spot. Tomorrow's a new day; I hope it improves. Race pace looked better to be honest - that's the overall conclusion really."

If you had to bet on any of the top-four teams losing out this weekend, most would probably call for Mercedes. If the Silver Arrows has a silver bullet to use, now might be the time to deploy it.

Can Mercedes remain in the mix come Sunday?

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