What we have learned from the Belgian GP so far

A glut of important decisions needed to be made when it came to the three-hour gap between the Belgian Grand Prix's sprint race and qualifying session: decisions influenced by the chance of precipitation emerging on Sunday.

Many had opted to trim their cars out for the sprint sessions, knowing that maximising the efficiency along the faster sections of the circuit would offer a bit more in offence and defence in the DRS zones. That's fine for 15 laps but, when it comes to coaxing tyres through a full race stint, the rear downforce might be a bit more in demand - and that's before you even encounter the effect of rain.

In wet conditions, a driver wants the downforce. There's no point in skittering about on a wet circuit while fully trimmed out aerodynamically, because there's no top-speed advantage if the car can't put the power down. And there's no point in doing so if you can't build the tyre temperature either, because the tread blocks on the intermediate (or, lesser seen, the wet) will simply struggle to grip up.

A few teams opted to split strategies - Haas, Sauber, and others among them - with one driver on the low-drag set-up and the other running high downforce. Red Bull, despite digging out a sprint win earlier in the day thanks to Max Verstappen's all-in play at the start and the lower level of wing it had run with, also chose to convert to a higher downforce set-up.

And, on qualifying pace, it brought Verstappen closer to the McLarens on lap time but not on grid position - the swing in second-sector pace proving to be enough to more than cover off the losses in the opening two parts of the lap. But, in this session, Verstappen was only fourth, not second; Lando Norris was less profligate this time around and captured pole with his opening lap of Q3, and Charles Leclerc also uncovered more time despite feeling there was nothing left in his Ferrari.

Sprint pole winner Oscar Piastri also felt he should have doubled up on his Belgium qualifying efforts, but he noted a slip at Turn 14 had cost him the chance to beat Norris' time after improving marginally on his opening Q3 lap.

Norris turned the tables on Piastri to grab grand prix pole

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Why Norris couldn't beat his first lap in Q3

You can more or less distil Norris' one-tenth difference between his first and second Q3 laps by pointing to the first corner. Norris, who revealed that he doesn't have the delta times on his dashboard, wasn't 100% sure where he'd lost the time but pointed at La Source and the final chicane as the two potential culprits.

"Turn 1, I hit the kerb a little bit, and it's a long run after Turn 1 so probably cost myself a little bit there," the Briton surmised. "And the last corner, a bit too much kerb in both of them, and I probably lost...we're talking half a tenth, touch more, and I go slower. We're talking small margins."

And he's spot on here. GPS data shows that Norris tried to brake for less time on his second lap with the intent of carrying more speed into the corner, but this wasn't conducive to arcing the line perfectly and he indeed rattled the exit kerb more than needed. It's a tiny error, and one that Verstappen also made on his final lap, but it saps the momentum that drivers need to build before the elevation increase out of Eau Rouge.

If there's anyone who can make the most of those conditions, its Verstappen; Silverstone was only a miscue because of the low-downforce set-up, and that's what Red Bull wanted to avoid

That set him back a bit, and there was a loss of about half a tenth in that final sector too. In terms of straightline speed, Norris was actually stronger through the lap, suggesting that McLaren perhaps dialled out some front wing angle during the two laps, but he was losing time in the corners versus his best.

Piastri, meanwhile was up on Norris' best after the opening sector, level by Rivage, but lost a smidgen of pace on the exit and then another snippet at Stavelot - a deficit he carried through Blanchimont before finding time in the final chicane. However, it wasn't quite enough to cut Norris down from his perch.

Verstappen's qualifying difference

Max Verstappen's lap in grand prix qualifying was just 0.084s faster than his effort in the sprint, but his journey across the two tours were incredibly different.

Comparing Verstappen's two best qualifynig laps between Friday and Saturday demonstrated two different ways of going fast

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

From the exit of La Source to the braking zone for Les Combes, Verstappen was actually 0.442s slower in his Saturday qualifying lap versus his equivalent effort on Friday, purely down to the level of wing run ahead of the sprint. The theory was that, in the second sector, Verstappen would get this back - versus his Friday best, he found 0.2s by the time he'd exited Pouhon, but there was more to come as through Les Fagnes and Stavelot the downforce came into play and Verstappen was now 0.06s up on his prior benchmark.

Through Blanchimont, the higher-downforce car began to cede time again, but Verstappen was punchier at the chicane and got a better exit to ensure his Saturday time with more wing surpassed his run in sprint qualifying.

It's an interesting comparison too; there's 10kph between the two specs at the end of the Kemmel Straight, although about 6kph at the absolute top end. Without the absolute grip from the high-downforce set-up, it's all about how you hang on through the middle sector; Verstappen did this well yesterday, but not by quite enough to make it match a lap with more wing.

What about the race?

Rain is expected for Sunday. If that's the case, Red Bull might be able to shrug off the 'lowly' fourth-place on the grid and enjoy the benefits of high downforce in more treacherous conditions. And if there's anyone who can make the most of those conditions, its Verstappen; Silverstone was only a miscue because of the low-downforce set-up, and that's what Red Bull wanted to avoid.

McLaren is confident it has enough downforce, despite not changing its downforce levels between sessions - and Norris says that the MCL39 provides an excellent baseline whatever the weather.

"It's Spa, so high chance of rain, but that can also mean it just sometimes hits half the track and the other half stays dry," the polesitter suggested. "We could be in for a Silverstone-esque chaotic race, similar to Australia or Silverstone, the ones that are sometimes a bit in the middle. Most likely some rain and drizzle, it's hard to know. We're going off the front, so hopefully, I can make an advantage of that and clean air and go from there. I think we have the best car, so that's the most important thing."

Rain is never too far away at Spa, and the wet stuff is forecast for Sunday

Photo by: Michael Potts / Motorsport Images

And Red Bull's expected gain would be Ferrari's loss; Leclerc stated that the Scuderia cannot count its performance in wet conditions as a strength. There's a general deficit with the SF-25's mechanical grip that means its peak is difficult to come by in slippery conditions; this is a little bit of a reversal from last year, where low-grip conditions were considered a strength. Ferrari hopes that its new suspension upgrade can fill in the cracks here, and Leclerc believes that the new parts are "going in the right direction".

Otherwise, those that gambled on higher-downforce set-ups will be in for a bit more of a fun afternoon if the rain indeed hits. And if it doesn't? McLaren's in an excellent position, and Verstappen's going to struggle on the straights.

Eyes to the sky, then - tomorrow's going to depend on the whims of the clouds.

McLaren has the dominant package in wet or dry conditions - but can it maximise its front-row lockout?

Photo by: Steven Tee / LAT Images via Getty Images