Was F1 too pessimistic about the 2024 season?

It was so familiar. After a pole battle that ended with Max Verstappen heading Charles Leclerc, the former aced the race start and disappeared. Everything imploded for Ferrari's lead challenger and Sergio Perez eventually recovered a Red Bull a 1-2 from fifth.

The 2024 season opener in Bahrain was just like so many of the 38 Red Bull wins from the two preceding years.

And after the team had serenely traversed testing with a car concept updated away from anything its rivals had been able to imitate over the winter, the question again arose: could Red Bull win every race as it so nearly did in 2023?

PLUS: Were Red Bull's 2024 upgrades really a downgrade?

There was hope in Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz suffering Ferrari brake problems in Bahrain, where the Mercedes duo were hampered by engine cooling requirements. McLaren then had regressed; Aston Martin’s previous rise unrepeated.

The ominousness only intensified when Red Bull took another 1-2 in Jeddah and this time Perez wasn’t a victory contender.

Responding to more F1 monotony with despondency wasn’t taking an easy and cool position – as one broadcaster-turned-podcaster put it at the weekend. Only those deserving criticism remained the teams that were failing to beat Verstappen and co.

Looking back from the eve of F1 2024’s halfway point and we know such gloomy predictions of another repetitive season changed right at the very next race, in Sainz’s Melbourne win.

Sainz's win in Australia, where Verstappen retired early on, was the first glimpse of increased competition.

Photo by: Ferrari

And yet, as good as the Spaniard was that day, deeper digging showed Verstappen still would’ve won had his brake problem not occurred.

But what has occurred since demonstrates the statistical noteworthiness of 2024 in comparison to last year’s banality.

After nine races this time, F1 has had three non-Red Bull race wins, compared to that sole aberration of last year. Had just a few things gone differently at Imola and in Montreal, it might be 5-1 in 2024’s favour.

If we use the supertimes calculation, Red Bull can actually be said to be further ahead of the opposition.

Stacked against that is how Red Bull has still racked up the other six wins – all via Verstappen. He’s now hit 60 F1 career victories having bagged 66.7% of all GP races since 2021 commenced.

And it would be wrong to ignore the safety car fortune that contributed to his Miami defeat, even though the data shows Lando Norris was already on course to do something special before that race was interrupted.

Intriguingly, if we use the supertimes calculation – where the fastest single lap by each car at each race weekend is expressed as a percentage of the fastest single lap overall (100.000%) and averaged over the season – Red Bull can actually be said to be further ahead of the opposition this time (see below).

2023 F1 supertimes

2024 F1 supertimes so far

Data suggests Red Bull is further ahead of its rivals this year, despite the race wins being shared.

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

But this data is skewed in the current era given Red Bull’s previous qualifying-sacrificing premium has finally been adopted by Ferrari. The red team was inherently faster in 2023 with its tyre-chewing design, but more tangibly successful this time with the more predictable SF-24.

And taking a look at Red Bull’s victory margins at the tracks visited so far in 2024 compared to their 2023 F1 events and in three-quarters of these repeats (Bahrain, Jeddah, Canada) the team’s winning margin is reduced.

Overall, though, in less palpable stuff, 2024’s narratives are just more compelling.

As ghastly as the saga is – the outcomes of the appeal into Red Bull’s original dismissal of the allegations and an FIA probe in the matter are, let’s not forget, still outstanding – the Christian Horner behaviour scandal cast an important spotlight on how women are treated throughout the F1 sphere.

Thankfully more heart-warmingly, Ollie Bearman’s debut and Sainz’s appendicitis recovery both provided additional new talking points. Then there were the swashbuckling celebrations around Norris finally breaking his F1 duck and Leclerc’s emotion at finally succeeding on his home streets in Monaco. Those came around China’s calendar return and the tragic Emilia-Romagna flooding memories being replaced.

And, as it has often done so previously, Canada provided a healthy dose of wet-weather chaos. The circuit itself might be rather creaking at the seams, but undoubtedly last weekend’s action was the race of the season so far.

The theory that Red Bull has introduced a “downgrade” to its car in its Imola update package including a new floor and front wing was also posed in Montreal. Yes, it was by rival technical director James Allison of Mercedes. And yes, Red Bull still “even with our downgrade, we managed to beat their upgrade”, as Horner quipped back.

Mercedes technical director Allison suggested Red Bull had added a "downgrade", only for Verstappen to earn victory in Canada.

Photo by: Francois Tremblay / Motorsport Images

But that’s not an element F1 has encountered since Red Bull lightened the RB18 and emerged as this era’s truly dominant force. Again, none of this is a criticism of the team’s impressive efforts.

It’s just that, overall, people like change. The intense driver market interest since Lewis Hamilton detonated the current transfer climate with his 2025 Ferrari deal not only shows this, but again it highlights an element 2023 utterly lacked.

Some very knowledgeable people pointed out the potential for this season to be more interesting quite early on.

McLaren and Mercedes rather let Red Bull off in Canada with their respective poor strategy choices and driver errors.

There was Ferrari team boss Fred Vasseur’s “we compensated 50% of the gap with Red Bull” in the Bahrain opener. Then that team’s chief technical officer – Adrian Newey, who’s upcoming exit from Red Bull has provided another 2024 twist – saying “it's definitely closing up” a month later.

At this stage, perhaps F1’s collective peak-end theory gratification desires pushed Verstappen's early wins ahead in its hive-mind. And so, the early ominousness pervaded.

The media, inevitably, played a part in all that.

Many of the stats above also show how Red Bull’s rivals still have to be perfect to beat it – even occasionally. McLaren and Mercedes rather let Red Bull off in Canada with their respective poor strategy choices and driver errors. Ferrari imploded in the familiar tyre preparation challenge.

Ferrari had proven a challenge for Red Bull at Monaco but fell back into previous struggles in Montreal.

Photo by: Patrick Vinet / Motorsport Images

And, with F1 now set to head back to ground where aerodynamic prowess and efficiency will make the critical difference, rather than the mechanics of kerb riding that have been so pivotal of late, its highly likely Verstappen will register a crushingly dominant Barcelona win next time out.

At the only comparative higher-downforce, faster track visited so far in 2024, Suzuka, Red Bull’s winning margin was actually up versus the 2023 event. Therefore, perhaps this is as good as F1 2024 is going to get.

PLUS: Bad luck or misjudgement: did Norris and McLaren throw away Canadian GP victory?

But it's already better than 2023 and this campaign is demonstrating that F1 has the essence of what it needs to shine. Good stories flowing through a changing season, not necessarily great races every time. Even then, the best will win out – as Red Bull is still doing.

Suddenly, the spectre of the 2026 rules reset – which will inevitably lead to one team dominating, because this is just what F1 consistently does – is looming rather than tantalising.

Will Red Bull continue to be challenged across the rest of the season?

Photo by: Erik Junius