The unintended consequences of Red Bull's Honda switch

Renault might insist there was no surprise with Red Bull's decision to team up with Honda in Formula 1 next year, but not everyone is so serene about it.

Plenty of voices emerged to question whether Red Bull's move is clever to swap a race-winning engine that could still yet clinch it this year's championship for a power unit that has never taken a car to a podium finish.

Chunks of hair have been pulled out at Red Bull over the years in frustration at Renault's progress (or lack of) at times, but Honda still has plenty of improvement to make before it can be considered a match for Mercedes or Ferrari. And that is before we get to see Renault's 'spec C' engine the manufacturer has high hopes for.

Let's not forget too that Honda is coming off the back of a Canadian Grand Prix where its latest engine spec showed some progress (just like the Renault), but also broke in the back of Pierre Gasly's car after just three practice sessions. Reliability remains a big issue.

Red Bull's call is certainly not one that guarantees it a way out of the woods and, despite all the engineering, financial and corporate arguments the team felt were too compelling to ignore, there remains an element of a gamble in what it has done. Sometimes it is indeed better the devil you know.

But in a championship as intensely competitive as F1, one person's uncertainty is another's opportunity - and Red Bull's decision will not play out without triggering effects elsewhere.

Whether that's at McLaren - now guaranteed to get a bit more attention from Renault as its only customer - or Renault itself, which loses a successful partner (and the cash that came from it), there will be winners and losers from what has happened.

Renault F1 managing director Cyril Abiteboul offered some intriguing thoughts about potential fallout, which he suggested could go quite high up F1's food chain.

"It will be interesting to see what the impact of that decision will be," Abiteboul told Autosport. "Frankly, there are a number of factors and we all know the intended and unintended consequences of this type of decision. So, let's see what the market is thinking.

"But all of us are aware that Honda is catching up and catching up quickly, and we need to give credit to Honda in that respect."

"One thing we don't want is a sort of finger pointing between Enstone and Viry about the competitiveness of the various elements of the package" Cyril Abiteboul

What Renault has lost is the benchmark of Red Bull; that target to show the chassis boys at Enstone exactly what potential there is from its engine.

But with Renault's restructuring now well advanced, and its position as potentially the best of the rest team behind the big three, the need for a standard is not so important - because its reference point is fast becoming the title-challenging opposition in any case.

Abiteboul is also mindful that with no Red Bull target to show what can be achieved with its engine, there is a danger of uncertainty about where a performance deficit lies - be it in engine or chassis - which could lead to friction.

"The picture of this year is clear enough, that there is no doubt of what needs to be done in order to recover the deficit against the top teams," he said. "We know what we have to do, and we need to execute it. And we need to never forget this situation.

"One thing we don't want, which has not happened and we don't want to see happening, is a sort of finger pointing between Enstone and Viry about the competitiveness of the various elements of the package. Red Bull was tending not to have that, and we don't want that to happen now."

Renault faces a different dynamic now it is no longer supplying a third team - with Abiteboul clear that there is little scope and interest in expanding beyond providing engines to two teams until the new rules cycle comes into play in 2021.

"Clearly until the end of 2020, in my opinion, it is pretty much steady for everyone," he said. "With Ferrari having three teams and Honda two, I expect that there is no real change or no need for change. What we are yet to define is the strategy from 2021, but before that we need to make sure that we are committed for the 2021 regulations.

"We know the outline of the regulations but even though the details are not known yet, we are starting work and will demonstrate that on the dyno. That is something that needs a push from Renault and McLaren to make some useful and limited resources available so we can also build our future."

It clearly will be more important for Renault to ensure its partnership with McLaren works, and becomes a good reference point that helps lift Renault's works team rather than becoming a distraction.

This is a good opportunity for McLaren. There's certainly a sense that the alliance between Renault and McLaren will grow stronger now Red Bull is moving on, which in turn may allow Renault to focus a bit more on itself than face the distractions that became commonplace with some hefty Red Bull politics over the years.

"It will allow us to really focus on what we have to do for our own team, Renault Sport, but also in preparing for 2021," added Abiteboul.

"Obviously when you supply Red Bull, which is a high maintenance team - because of their ambition and their expectation - it is always a bit of a distraction for the rest that we have to do. And we have a lot to do, both for this cycle of engine regulations and for the next one."

"We are yet to understand the full extent of the impact - on the driver market, and on the engineer market" Cyril Abiteboul

Renault has ambitions for its works team, and knows that over the next few years it needs to make good on its targets of podiums, wins and even a world championship assault.

But what about some bigger disruption potential? What if some key figures are not convinced by Red Bull's engineering argument that switching to Honda was a no-brainer?

Daniel Ricciardo needs to make a call on whether he believes the Japanese car manufacturer can give him the engine to take him to the world title. There was also some wild gossip earlier this week that Renault has sent some feelers out to check on Adrian Newey's future...

Could either of these key men from Red Bull be the ones to create a hugely unexpected consequence and go and seek fresh pastures elsewhere if they have doubts about Honda? It's unlikely, but not impossible.

When asked about the duo, Abiteboul's was far from dismissive about what opportunities could open up for a team like Renault.

"That is something that the market will assess and we are yet to understand the full extent of the impact - on the driver market, and on the engineer market," said Abiteboul of how Red Bull's move will shake out.

"We are in a closed market in a very competitive environment and everyone is watching for the latest developments to make some decisions for their own moves or for their own career."

It's popcorn time.