The non-cancelled Renault time that should scare Red Bull at Monza

"Monza was an even stronger circuit for us and if we are stronger there's only a podium in front of us," Daniel Ricciardo said after last weekend's Belgium Grand Prix, heaping the pressure onto his tattoo bet with Renault team principal Cyril Abiteboul.

Judging by the times set in the opening practice sessions for Formula 1's 2020 Italian Grand Prix, that podium could well be in sight for Renault. It has kept its low-downforce promise a week after Spa, and, because Red Bull struggled at Monza on Friday, there's every chance the team could pick up its first silverware since it returned to F1 in 2016.

And this isn't about the 1m20.905s soft tyre qualifying simulation time that Ricciardo lost for a track limits violation at the Parabolica, which would have put him third in the overall order in FP2.

This is because of the competitive times Renault was able to post in the long run data gathering. Remember, in the closing stages of last weekend's race at Spa, Ricciardo was the fastest driver on track, and finished just 3.422s behind Max Verstappen's third place (although he was helped by the Red Bull driver backing off significantly too).

But Verstappen, who joked at the Spanish GP that he had a subscription to third place behind the dominant Mercedes duo (who, as we shall get to shortly, look to be in yet another league), wasn't happy with how things went for Red Bull at Monza today.

Just perhaps, that subscription may be about to expire.

Overall order

Mercedes Hamilton 1m20.192s
McLaren Norris 1m21.089s
AlphaTauri Gasly 1m21.121s
Red Bull Verstappen 1m21.228s
Racing Point Stroll 1m21.389s
Ferrari Leclerc 1m21.503s
Renault Ocon 1m21.697s
Alfa Romeo Giovinazzi 1m21.786s
Haas Magnussen 1m22.088s
Williams Latifi 1m22.825s

Ricciardo lost his best time in FP2, which meant his place in the classification was set by his medium tyre running earlier in the session and so he doesn't feature in the overall order chart (above). He wasn't alone, very far from it, in impinging at the critical exit of the final corner, which is set to be another issue to keep an eye on up and down the field in qualifying tomorrow.

But Renault isn't too bothered.

Red Bull should at least be encouraged by its pace on the softs compared to Renault, where it was 0.384s quicker per lap in FP2. It also completed a longer run on the mediums compared to its French rival

"We showed the pace in FP2, however, our lap time was removed for track limits," said Ricciardo. "I'm not concerned about that as it's a small thing and today is about finding the limits. We know if we keep it on track tomorrow, we're holding onto that lap time, which should put us up the leaderboard."

What Renault should be positively bothered about is Ricciardo's pace in the medium tyre long run averages (below). Here, Renault is 0.233s per lap to the good over Red Bull, which is interesting as a one-stop race looks likely at this stage. At the same time, these times come with all the usual caveats about fuel loads and engine modes - with the technical directive impacting the latter irrelevant for these practice sessions.

Regarding possible race strategies, Pirelli has hinted that the drivers may well be starting on the softs - which look like they will stay in decent shape for the race judging by today's showings - and then go to the hards for a long second stint. But there isn't all that much difference in pace over a stint when comparing the softs with the mediums. And it is again a real temptation for the teams to try and make it through Q2 on mediums, with a 0.6s delta between the compounds. If they have enough margin, they should try it given the medium is inevitably more durable.

Verstappen has done this alongside Mercedes on several occasions so far this season, and Ricciardo beat him today based on that deleted time. But at the same time, the gaps between cars immediately behind Mercedes are not large at this stage.

Medium tyre average pace

Mercedes 1m23.915s 10 laps
Renault 1m24.356s 6 laps
Red Bull 1m24.589s 9 laps
Racing Point 1m25.085s 13 laps
Alfa Romeo 1m25.843s 7 laps
Ferrari 1m25.895s 12 laps
Williams 1m26.261s 12 laps

Verstappen sounded annoyed after stepping from his car to speak to the TV crews, which will be down to his FP1 shunt as he ran through Ascari, and also because he was "struggling with balance and grip in general" in his car.

"Still quite a bit of work to do," he added.

But Red Bull should at least be encouraged by its pace on the softs compared to Renault, where it was 0.384s quicker per lap in FP2. It also completed a longer run on the mediums compared to its French rival (although this is reversed on the softs), so the gaps could well be explained by varying fuel loads.

Soft tyre average pace

Mercedes 1m23.796s 7 laps
Red Bull 1m24.912s 8 laps
Renault 1m25.296s 14 laps
AlphaTauri 1m25.431s 11 laps
McLaren 1m25.469s 12 laps
Ferrari 1m25.576s 6 laps
Racing Point 1m25.638s 8 laps
Haas 1m25.859s 9 laps
Alfa Romeo 1m26.006s 6 laps
Williams 1m26.021s 9 laps

At the front, as evidenced by all the tables so far, and yes, it tops the hard tyre long run averages (below) too, is Mercedes. Its pace advantage on every compound is big, with its gap on the softs particularly eye opening (or alarming, depending on your persuasion).

It was basically matching its rivals when it came to power on the straights, but the W11s were simply gaining chunks of time with every corner zone - and at Monza there are only really six (out of 11 turns in total)...

Lewis Hamilton led the way on overall pace, but Valtteri Bottas beat him by a whopping 0.642s per lap on their comparable soft tyre long runs. However, Hamilton was significantly compromised by traffic during his run - and the effects of clattering a kerb hard at one stage apparently playing apart here too - while Bottas's run was relatively straightforward - that word is basically how Mercedes can sum up its day.

There was plenty of hope and attention focused on the potential impact of the engine mode technical direct, but Mercedes had arrived at Monza already knowing what its plan is for the single qualifying/race mode, and did not have to do any experimentation today.

What modes the team ran today - as ever, these are an unknown - aren't necessarily what it will use from Saturday-Sunday, but it still expects that what it's been saying all along will ring true. There will be a minor impact on its Q3 power, but this will probably be helpful come the race.

So far, the clampdown does not appear to have ruffled the Black Arrows' feathers.

Hard tyre average pace

Mercedes 1m23.864s 10 laps
McLaren 1m24.754s 5 laps
AlphaTauri 1m25.185s 11 laps
Red Bull 1m25.252s 11 laps
Haas 1m25.604s 9 laps
Ferrari 1m25.977s 7 laps
Alfa Romeo 1m26.260s 11 laps
Williams 1m26.316s 17 laps

In the pack, Ferrari is again struggling - and, frankly, looked all over the place - with first Sebastian Vettel and Charles Leclerc having a solid go at throwing their SF1000s at the Lesmo scenery.

"The car is difficult to drive," said Vettel. "But it's not the first time. So, where are we lacking? I think we're losing down the straights, which is expected. But in terms of where we want to have a better car to drive is [that] we're lacking grip on corner entry.

"Pretty much all four wheels, the car is sliding quite a lot. It's a handful. But yeah, it's very difficult to get everything right to get the lap together. But we're trying to make it a bit better for tomorrow."

But things don't seem to be quite as bad for Ferrari as they did at Spa judging by the long run table placings. But it is still giving away around two seconds per lap on every tyre type to Mercedes, when it was winning at this track last year...

"Hopefully [we will get] into Q3 but I think it will be very close," said Leclerc. "For now realistically, I don't think we are yet... we don't have yet the performance to get into Q3 but we are close to it."

So, judging by what was seen at Monza today, with the caveat that things always move on overnight once the debriefs have concluded and the data crunched, Mercedes should be on for a sixth Italian GP win in seven years. And by a hefty margin.

"I think we're losing down the straights, which is expected. But in terms of where we want to have a better car to drive is [that] we're lacking grip on corner entry"Sebastian Vettel

But it's unclear which of Hamilton or Bottas has the long run pace edge given Hamilton's soft run was compromised and Mercedes split the running on the other two compounds for their respective second runs.

Something to keep an eye out for in FP3 and qualifying will be the effect of the tow, as it could well be critical in qualifying and the teams will try and chase it. Some teams were trying to run as pairs in FP1 to simulate this and the FIA has moved to stop the excessive backing up seen ahead of the qualifying simulation runs in FP2 and the farce in Q3 last year. But the drivers are predicting more chaos.

"Everybody wants to get a tow and, like last year, we could see some traffic jams," assessed Sergio Perez, whose Racing Point squad seems to have fallen away from the glittering pace it was delivering in the early stages of the season in recent events. On both the soft and medium tyre averages it was giving away time to Red Bull and Renault (with Mercedes gone out front), while its search for a 2020 podium goes on into Sunday.

Returning to the fight behind Mercedes, Renault and Red Bull could well be the scrap to watch this weekend, with AlphaTauri - which had what Pierre Gasly said was "by far the best Friday since the start of the season" despite a damper working its way loose on his car late in FP2 - looking strong too.

But don't expect Red Bull to sit still overnight and Renault's performance has fluctuated at times from Friday-Saturday. However, its 2019 Monza form - where it scored its best result of the season - suggests it could be serious thorn in Red Bull's side.