The ironic reason Newey thinks Red Bull hasn't been caught in F1 yet

Formula 1 rivals had feared the potential of the Red Bull RB20 from the moment it set the timing sheets alight on the opening day of pre-season testing in Bahrain. But if there had been a glimmer of hope in the first few races that perhaps Ferrari could at least lift its game to put the world champion squad under some pressure, that seemed to evaporate at Suzuka last weekend as Red Bull’s advantage became clear for all to see.

As Max Verstappen cantered to his third win from four races, the super close battle in the chasing pack between Ferrari, McLaren, Aston Martin and Mercedes did little to wipe away the reality that the destiny of the world championship seems pretty much set now, pending a black swan event. Toto Wolff spoke for many in the paddock of a reality that second place in both championships is the best any can really hope for.

“No one is going to catch Max this year,” said the Mercedes boss after the Japanese Grand Prix. “His driving and the car is just spectacular. You can see the way he manages the tyres, and basically, this season now is best of the rest.”

What is perhaps most remarkable about the situation F1 finds itself in right now is that, while the chasing pack does seem to be edging closer to Red Bull, none of its rivals have yet had the eureka moment that has allowed them to consistently threaten the Milton Keynes-based squad.

There have been the two most recent times when Red Bull slipped up – Singapore last year and Australia this – opening the door for Carlos Sainz to grab victories on both occasions and, at the odd events where others have perhaps had a quicker car and the opportunity to win, like Monaco last year with Fernando Alonso and then Austin later in the campaign with Lewis Hamilton, Verstappen and Red Bull have still pulled something out of the bag.

But despite being in the third year of F1’s latest ground effect era, there is no evidence of the benchmark team being about to be topped, as you normally get at this stage of a new rules set. There is still a lot of uncertainty among teams about getting a proper grasp on these regulations.

Red Bull still appears no closer to being consistently challenged in the third year of F1's ground effect rules

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

Mercedes in particular appears to find itself still scratching its head about things that are going on with its car. Having spent the first few races trying to get an understanding of why its W15 was not producing the downforce levels that its wind tunnel and CFD said it should, it now thinks the downforce is there – it’s just not bringing any performance gains.

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Wolff said: “We are measuring downforce with our sensors and pressure tabs, and it's saying to us that we have 70 points more downforce in a particular corner in Melbourne than we had last year. But, on the lap time, it is not one kilometre per hour faster. It doesn't make any sense.”

While Red Bull’s rivals are still not sure exactly what it has done to nail the ground effect regulations so well, the squad itself has its suspicions about why the others have not caught up. Chatting to Red Bull chief technical officer Adrian Newey in Japan last weekend, he pointed to there being some clear factors at play. These had not helped his squad get it right, but he felt they were holding back the opposition closing in.

"Ironically, the regulations that were designed to kind of make things closer, arguably had the opposite effect as rule changes often do"
Adrian Newey

“The venturi rules [Newey doesn’t refer to them as ‘ground effect regulations’ because all cars are ground effect], do throw up complications in the aerodynamics that the previous generation of flat bottom plus diffuser cars didn't suffer from,” he said. “And under the cost cap regulations, if you start off on the wrong foot, it's perhaps more difficult to reverse your way out of that, than it was when spending was less limited.

“So ironically, the regulations that were designed to kind of make things closer arguably had the opposite effect as rule changes often do.”

Newey does seem to have a point about the impact of the cost cap, in that when teams have gone totally in the wrong direction with their concept (like Mercedes and Ferrari last year) counter measures could really only be taken at the end of the season. There is no spending leeway to bring out B-spec cars, or keep throwing wind tunnel hours at endless floor designs to finally find something that unlocks the performance that is missing.

Newey’s verdict on the fact that the opposition are fighting with one hand behind their back paints a bleak picture about the opportunities for others to put in what is needed to make more of a fight at the front. But if there is one small glimmer of hope that there may still be excitement ahead, it is that Ferrari is not a world away at all tracks.

Newey believes instead of closing up the field, the cost cap has entrenched existing advantages

Photo by: Motorsport Images

And amid speculation that it is preparing a pretty major update for the start of the European season, there were some interesting comments from Sainz last weekend when he suggested that, if the Prancing Horse does not lose too much ground in the points standings over the next couple of races, then it could be game on soon.

“I think they are definitely going to have an advantage in the first third of the season until we bring one or two upgrades that make us fight them more consistently,” he said. “By that time, maybe it's a bit too late with the advantage that they might have on the championship – so we need more Australias. But we're going to give it our best shot. It's my last year in Ferrari also, so yeah, nothing to lose and we will try everything to make it back.”

Maybe, just maybe, it's not all over yet.

Can Ferrari ensure Red Bull don't have things all their own way in the remainder of the season?

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images