The future high-stakes F1 battle that could transform the pecking order

Honda’s decision to switch the volume control on its on-off Formula 1 strategy back up to full in 2026 raises interesting questions. Given Aston Martin’s impressive form this year, will it be an Aston Martin-Honda that breaks firmly into the winner’s circle in the new era, winning championships and ending the duopoly enjoyed
 by Mercedes and Red Bull? A domination which, with Brawn-Mercedes included, is now 15 years old.

The Japanese company has learned much since remarrying McLaren in 2015, divorcing three years later, then decamping to Red Bull where it started winning races and world championship titles. However, the competitive landscape within which Honda will partner Aston Martin in 2026 is rather different to now, or indeed the one in which the Aston Martin-sponsored Red Bull-Hondas came to prominence by winning a couple of races and finishing runner-up in the constructors’ championship in 2020. 

Six of the teams will have full manufacturer support in respect of powertrain technology. While Ferrari, Mercedes and Alpine will continue as they are, Red Bull will commence its Ford-supported Red Bull Powertrain programme and Audi will be Vorsprung Durch Technik-ing at the team formerly known as Sauber. 

All being well in Sakura, Honda should unquestionably provide Aston Martin with a competitive power unit, but it’s hard to imagine anyone at the other five companies is planning for failure. The big fear has to be that we see a repeat of the birth of hybrid powertrains
in 2014 when, against the best intentions of the FIA’s working
group, one manufacturer came up with a highly innovative design
and ran away with the ball. Mercedes simply did a much superior job, leaving the rest to
 thrash around, work out what was happening and play catch-up.

With six manufacturers lining up in 2026, the stakes are even higher. For those eager to win, second or third feels bad. What sixth will feel like is concerning. It’s hard to see any manufacturer who finishes that far back opting to stay. Unless it’s Ferrari.

Behind these six lie the orphaned privateers, AlphaTauri,
Haas, Williams and McLaren. Bereft of
 a manufacturer parent, adopted as customers in return for a wedge of money, they must recognise that any chance of winning will fade to zero.

Aston Martin will have Honda power for the new engine regulations in 2026, bumping the number of manufacturers up to six

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Speaking to a Honda source, while a return to McLaren was unthinkable, Williams could have been a possibility had things, including the team’s leadership and interests, been different. Ultimately the decision to go with Aston Martin was an easy one, reinforced by the team’s early season form. It also helped that Aston had an owner with the bullish chutzpah of Lawrence Stroll supported by the shrewd guidance of Group CEO Martin Whitmarsh, an old hand at these deals.

Whether Honda can continue with Aston Martin in the same form in which it will leave Red Bull remains to be seen, but the additional barrier to success that creates for non-manufacturer teams is notable

While Audi looked at British teams prior to settling on Sauber, the one that got away, of course, was its sister company Porsche. In a different time and place, Williams and McLaren would have been all over that deal, but when Red Bull rejected its advances and the unattractive offer of a controlling relationship, Porsche fully retreated.

PLUS: The sliding doors moment that saved Red Bull and Porsche

Whether Honda can continue with Aston Martin in the same form in which it will leave Red Bull remains to be seen, but the additional barrier to success that creates for non-manufacturer teams is notable. While both Williams and McLaren profess themselves happy to continue as Mercedes customers, the prospect of competing against half a dozen manufacturer teams must weigh heavily on their shoulders.

McLaren has made a huge step forward this season, but against such a weight of manufacturer opposition can it compete as a customer team?

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images