The figures Red Bull and Mercedes can't afford to see again in F1 2021

“The coming races are absolutely critical to the outcome of the world championship.”

The above statement, uttered by no one in particular, could really apply to any group of races one looks at throughout the 2021 Formula 1 season’s schedule. While this remains a fluctuating beast given the ongoing disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic, every one of the 22 races (or however many events ultimately do end up taking place this year) offers the same number of points.

But, of course, as the rounds tick by and the results pile up, the share of points required to be successful differs. This is nothing new, but it and the phrase we started with are worth bearing in mind as F1 heads to Paul Ricard for the returning French Grand Prix this weekend.

The championship has just been through a (very) mini season of street races and is now returning to what might be uncharitably called ‘normal’ tracks. What this means in reality is purpose-built venues with wide, high-speed corners, which will really test the aerodynamic approaches at every team, as well as mean the tyres need to be treated differently to provide the best performance.

The street circuit sojourn has not been kind to Mercedes, but it could have been worse had Max Verstappen not been violently removed from the Azerbaijan GP.

If the Dutchman had won as he looked commandingly on-course to do, with Lewis Hamilton remaining third as he appeared poised to do, the gap between them would’ve been 14 points instead of four (let’s leave the fastest lap bonus point permutations out for simplicity’s sake – something F1 should probably do in any case).

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Verstappen recognises what this means, even if Hamilton’s Baku second start error to accidentally change his brake bias settings meant he ultimately scored zero points last time out as well, having briefly looked like he’d scoop all 25 on offer for the victory that went to Sergio Perez.

Lewis Hamilton locks up at the second start of the 2021 Azerbaijan GP

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images

"I think Mercedes is stronger at normal circuits, that's why I would have liked to get a bit more margin [in Baku]," Verstappen recently told Ziggo Sport TV.

Here’s why Verstappen and Red Bull are concerned.

Mercedes is undefeated at the French GP since the event returned to the calendar, and was particularly dominant there in 2019. Plus, it reversed a trend of relatively poor results at the Red Bull Ring with two victories there at the start of the delayed 2020 season (which could’ve easily been two 1-2s had just a few circumstances played out differently) and has won seven of the last nine races at Silverstone – the next three venues on the calendar.

The high-speed downforce-matched-with-power-dependent elements at the upcoming tracks means 2021’s real pecking order returns to the fore after two races where interlopers – the Ferrari drivers – were able to get amongst things.

Mercedes is not expected to have anywhere near as much trouble with tyre warm-up at such venues as it did in Monaco and Baku (although Valtteri Bottas showed this still can occur at a ‘normal’ venue with his struggles at Imola) and the low-speed turns that so favour the Scuderia are lacking through this next ‘absolutely critical’ phase of the season.

Only Verstappen has qualified in the top four at every race, with an average grid spot of 2.3. Hamilton comes next on 2.5 – hurt by his P7 start in Monaco. Bottas has 4.6 with non-top-four starts at Imola and in Baku, with Perez on 6.6 after his Bahrain Q2 elimination and eighth, ninth and sixth starting spots in the last three events

Therefore, assuming there’s no further Q3 disruptions, which has recently been a factor almost born of the nature of the two street circuits, Red Bull and Mercedes drivers should occupy the top four positions on the grid at every race before the Hungarian GP on the eve of the summer break. And, really, even there too.

Where a car should be placed in qualifying is a key aspect of how Autosport rates its driver at every F1 weekend.

The drivers can only take the car to where it is fundamentally capable of reaching thanks to its design prowess – it’s just that reaching that limit is not something every driver can do, and even if they do the same designs may be susceptible to relatively poorer race performance. Which is why generally (and recently), drivers such as Charles Leclerc and – at the other end of the grid, George Russell – tend to star on Saturdays and often struggle to keep their high starting spots in races.

Lewis Hamilton dominated the 2019 French GP from pole

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

As the two best cars on the current grid, we should therefore (again, generally) expect the Red Bull and Mercedes drivers to occupy the top four spots. But looking back at the qualifying performances from this quartet so far in 2021 produces an interesting set of figures. Again, these will be key to considering the coming ‘critical’ part of the campaign.

Only Verstappen has qualified in the top four at every race, with an average grid spot of 2.3. Hamilton comes next on 2.5 – hurt by his P7 start in Monaco. Bottas has 4.6 with non-top-four starts at Imola and in Baku, with Perez on 6.6 after his Bahrain Q2 elimination and eighth, ninth and sixth starting spots in the last three events.

For Perez, we must remember that the last two Q3s have been heavily impacted by red flags (some would argue, ‘ruined’). But in general, both teams must hope they don’t record either of their drivers qualifying below this key cut-off, and, ideally for both squads, qualifying as highly as possible.

This may seem obvious, but it can have a big impact on race results and the results so far this season show what can happen if things go awry in qualifying.

Barcelona can be considered a ‘normal’ track, but qualify down the order and you may not recover – as Perez did not this year. Sticking with Perez, losing his P4 starting spot to Lando Norris early on in Portugal meant the race up front was gone well before he’d recovered his place and shown strong pace running long on a contra strategy. The same problem really occurred with Bottas at Imola (although there were many other factors at play, it’s true), where he couldn’t make progress even in the wet and chaotic race there.

If Hamilton’s Monaco result is the only blip from the qualifying stats of the two title contenders so far, then how Perez and Bottas perform against the clock will be vital to how their teams come out of the coming four-race stint.

For Perez, he’s riding a high after his Baku win – where he did exactly what Red Bull hired him to do, to pick up the pieces when Verstappen is removed from contention. But he has been excellent at that track in the past and so surely needs to bank further proof that he finally is the answer to the ‘Ricciardo riddle’ Red Bull has faced since Daniel left for new pastures at the end of 2018.

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And that isn’t to say he isn’t going to, or to doubt his level so far this year. It’s merely the ‘you’re only as good as your last race’ F1 driver cliche rearing its whatever-metaphor-you-wish.

Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing, 1st position, celebrates on the podium

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Bottas is surely fighting for his Mercedes future right now, with Russell waiting if the Black Arrows squad does decide to make a change to its line-up for 2022. Solidly earning a grid spot his W12 should be occupying would go some way to proving his worth. Remembering, of course, that this was a driver in Monaco GP podium contention until Mercedes’ latest pitstop disaster…

At the last ‘normal’ track, Barcelona, Mercedes won through a combination of strategic brilliance and Hamilton being kinder on his rear tyres compared to Verstappen. The second factor alone is remarkable considering the team’s rear handling problems just a few months ago in testing

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And then we come to Verstappen and Hamilton. As the figures above show, their speed and top results in qualifying are (generally, again) expected. But now F1 returns to ‘normal’ ground their race performances come under a different kind of focus.

At the last ‘normal’ track, Barcelona, Mercedes won through a combination of strategic brilliance and Hamilton being kinder on his rear tyres compared to Verstappen. The second factor alone is remarkable considering the team’s rear handling problems just a few months ago in testing.

But has Red Bull been able to solve this apparent weakness in the intervening weeks? If Mercedes can enact an impressive turnaround, its rival must do so too if it’s to ultimately triumph.

‘Normal’ F1 tracks will provide the answer, and likely a winner and loser to the coming ‘crucial’ phase of a finely-poised, gripping championship fight.

Lewis Hamilton passes Max Verstappen to win the 2021 Spanish GP

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images