The familiar Paul Ricard weakness that should worry Ferrari at the French GP

Blue and red have been the colours of the 2022 Formula 1 season so far. The dominant corporate liveries of Red Bull and Ferrari have been taken to each victory in the opening half of the campaign.

Blue currently leads red 7-4 on that front. And the bold stripes that famously line the masses of Paul Ricard runoff have blue in front of red too. But it was the Scuderia that ended the first day of the French Grand Prix ahead of its championship rival.

Carlos Sainz’s Friday in France did not start brilliantly, considering his Austria engine misery continued when it was confirmed he would indeed have to take at least a 10-place grid drop for his squad opting to fit a new control electronics element - following his fiery exit from the Red Bull Ring race last time out. But the Spaniard finished with the top time in FP2, the fastest of the day on a 1m32.527s.

That was just 0.101s clear of team-mate Charles Leclerc, with Sainz also gaining nicely from a tow following Pierre Gasly’s AlphaTauri down the pit straight at the end of lap on which he set his session-leading time.

Overall FP2 order

But what was more impressive about Sainz’s effort was that it came on his second flier on the same set of softs. These are the 2022 Pirelli C2s that have to be carefully nurtured to reach the critical temperature operating range, but then not over-stressed to still have performance come the end of the 3.6-mile Paul Ricard layout when the drivers are pushing.

Leclerc got close with a similar second go on his one set of softs, but it was the 0.550s gap back to Verstappen at the end of FP2 that stood out most.

Ferrari set the headline times in French GP Friday practice

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Autosport noted how Verstappen had appeared to have the pointy front end and poised balance he craves to be at his best through the technical corners that end the track’s first sector in FP1. This was on his way to run just 0.091s behind Leclerc’s leading pace in that session, but the Dutchman was less happy with his car balance later in the afternoon.

After setting a personal best 1m33.077s, Verstappen complained of major understeer through the first half of the lap and explained later he “just didn't really get the balance like we hoped”.

Sainz believed his car “felt good, especially on the flying laps” over the course of the opening day.

Data Autosport has seen puts Sainz up by 0.3s over Verstappen by the time each reaches the Turn 8/9 chicane halfway down the Mistral straight on their respective FP2 best laps. The F1-75’s typically superior cornering speed was on display again, while the Red Bull was tracked gaining time back on every straight.

Verstappen and Red Bull led the way by a pretty massive 0.474s on the compound it is highly likely all drivers will use when the lights go out on Sunday. It’s still early stages, but this should give Ferrari some serious cause for concern

But it was at Le Beausset where Sainz was significantly faster – gaining 0.2s there against Verstappen and recording an apex speed advantage of 6mph.

As good as that appears for Ferrari, there were several factors its fans should be wary of when considering its chances for the rest of the weekend, as will become clear later on. Then there is the long-run picture from FP2 (below).

Medium tyre averages

As can be seen above, Sainz’s race-data gathering from FP2’s final third produced the best average for Ferrari, with Leclerc unusually 0.2s adrift of his team-mate’s average pace each time by – albeit over a five-lap longer stint. But Verstappen and Red Bull led the way by a pretty massive 0.474s on the compound it is highly likely all drivers will use when the lights go out on Sunday.

Of course, it’s still early stages, but this should give Ferrari some serious cause for concern. After all, it struggled badly with tyre degradation in the race here last year – which the team had to spend considerable time in its simulator afterwards to understand.

When looking at the long runs on harder tyres, Verstappen and Red Bull have the advantage

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

Ferrari did look much better at other front-limiting circuit layouts later in 2021, plus it had the edge over Red Bull on the critical tyre wear factor at its rival’s home track earlier this month, but it appears to have work to do to close the gap on Paul Ricard race pace right now. Both teams anticipate how the slightly cooler conditions expected on Sunday will impact the tyres will also be crucial.

Some hope for Ferrari comes from Sainz being able to edge back towards his earlier better pace in the middle of his long-run stint, while Verstappen said “the long run is a bit better but again the tyres are running really hot and it's very difficult to judge really where you are”.

Behind the top two comes Mercedes – said by some to be a dark horse for victory here given its pace at the similarly front-limiting layout at Silverstone two races ago. That of course ignores the circumstances of that race (Verstappen’s damage taking him out of contention and the Ferrari drivers holding each other up).

But anyway, the Silver Arrows squad was third best in both the single lap and long run stakes in France on Friday.

George Russell said the team’s new front brake ducts – aimed at cooling the tyres better – and tweaked rear floor offered a boost based on his initial feelings. He ended up fourth overall in FP2 and led the way for Mercedes in the long runs.

Lewis Hamilton, having given up his W13 for Nyck de Vries to use in FP1, was playing catch up on mileage and building confidence on both ultimate pace and tyre management – per Mercedes.

Autosport understands that both Mercedes drivers were struggling with their machines through the long Turn 6 right that feeds into the Turn 7 left kink and the Mistral straight beyond and is a particular focus for track limits given the speed gains found when running as wide as possible there.

Mercedes appears some way adrift of the top two teams in France

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

The W13s were also less happy through the twisting section that precedes Turn 6 – heading downhill towards the bottom end of the track. This is the result of Mercedes’ typical struggles to get the softs into the best working range for the start of a flying lap. But it was at least pleased not to encounter any major porpoising on the straights or mid-corner bouncing.

Mercedes is hoping it can get among the fight for the final podium spot given Sainz will need to recover from down the order after his penalty and Sergio Perez ended Friday 1.533s off the ultimate pace.

The Mexican driver, who said a delay starting FP2 due to Red Bull needing to fix a rollbar issue, said this was down to him not being “overly comfortable with the car at the moment”.

Autosport understands that both Mercedes drivers were struggling with their machines through the long Turn 6 right that feeds into the Turn 7 left kink and the Mistral straight beyond

But both Perez and Verstappen should be encouraged by the latter’s long-run prowess on Friday, of which Sainz said: “[This was] a bit more challenging due to the graining.” Plus, it is has been suggested that Ferrari cars were running in a more powerful engine mode for their quickest FP2 laps.

Inevitably, when such caveats are removed on Sunday and the final tyre wear sums come into play, the result will play out.

But with Mercedes trailing, Sainz robbed of momentum by his grid penalty and Perez playing catch-up, the stage is seemingly set for yet another blue vs red, Verstappen-Leclerc battle for victory.

The early signs point to another Leclerc vs Verstappen battle for victory

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images