The big questions concerning Leclerc’s Ferrari F1 future

As Formula 1’s summer shutdown enforces a three-week break from Max Verstappen
and Red Bull’s domination of the current campaign, rivals will have much to ponder. One such is Charles Leclerc, for whom the prospect of winning the world championship has grown even more distant after another error-strewn season. The choices he makes in the coming months are likely
to define his career, especially the question of his ongoing relationship with Ferrari.

While clear fractures have developed between Leclerc and the team, there’s no doubting the power of the almost mystical connections tying him to Ferrari. Think back to last October’s Singapore Grand Prix, a rare slip-up for Max when Red Bull cost him a front-row start by under-fuelling him in qualifying and Verstappen then botched the recovery. While Sergio Perez maintained Red Bull’s honour by winning, it was Leclerc who stole the show. Having blown his ninth (and final) pole position of 2022 with a poor start to the rain-delayed race, Charles spent two hours trying to make amends – throwing his Ferrari around the tricky street course with wild abandon, the frustration of gifting Perez the lead evident in every snappy steer.

Sideways, here there and everywhere, but to no avail. A glorious defeat.

While some refuseniks scoff at the very idea, it’s not hard to see why even those charged with running Ferrari have drawn comparisons between Leclerc and Gilles Villeneuve. Sure, modern F1 machines don’t go sideways quite so often as in the Canadian’s day, but Leclerc sure has forged
a similar ‘win or bust’ reputation.

“Being [part of] Ferrari is somehow trying to enhance the myth of the Cavallino [Ferrari’s prancing horse],” former team principal Mattia Binotto said of Leclerc after Charles had driven Villeneuve’s 1979 312T, as part of a Fiorano event marking the 40th anniversary of Villeneuve’s untimely death. “There are only a few drivers capable of doing that. I think Charles is one of these, as was Gilles.”

What went down in Singapore provides a handy metaphor for Leclerc’s current predicament. There, his exciting efforts followed an unfortunate start in wet conditions, a big opportunity blown given the scale of Red Bull’s 2022 advantage once it lightened its RB18 and Ferrari had to adapt its F1-75 to meet the mid-season porpoising alterations. In 2023, after Binotto was ousted in favour of Frederic Vasseur, Ferrari has remained operationally sketchy at times and a certain captivating wildness in Leclerc’s on- and off-track actions has followed.

Leclerc's 'win or bust' approach ended up with a bit of both in Baku

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

 Is Leclerc causing his own problems?

It’s been a painful season from the off. Charles threatened pole in Bahrain and briefly stole second from Perez but was then badly adrift even before an engine problem cost a certain third and led to a Jeddah grid penalty. Then, in Australia, Leclerc misjudged his car positioning on the opening lap and was pitched into the Turn 3 gravel by Aston Martin’s Lance Stroll. A pair of poles in F1’s first 2023 sprint event in Baku actually included another crash – on the final run of the sprint shootout qualifying – and two further hefty Red Bull defeats. These were soothed somewhat by Leclerc’s first rostrum visit this term following the main event.

A Q3 crash while chasing another pole in Miami then ripped out the momentum he’d finally started building, and his recovery drive in the race was underwhelming. In Monaco Leclerc demonstrated his searing speed and breathtaking bravery again to end up just 0.1s from pole behind Verstappen and Fernando Alonso, but he started sixth because he’d unwittingly impeded Lando Norris because Ferrari had failed to warn him the McLaren was approaching. Then came successive failures to reach Q3 in Spain and Canada, but only in the latter did Leclerc mount an impressive fightback, heading team-mate Carlos Sainz in fourth.

Ferrari has tried to address its misfortunes by finally switching to a Red Bull-style sidepod concept, but too often Leclerc and Sainz are still frustrated by poor race pace caused by excessive tyre degradation

Canada was an important season milestone. There, Leclerc revealed a factory investigation into why he hadn’t been able to escape Q1 in Barcelona had found nothing wrong with his car. Logic, therefore, suggests the responsibility lies with Leclerc himself – staggering for a driver whose single-lap skills and ability to prepare the car properly for a qualifying push are so often hailed as their greatest asset.

But also in Montreal, Leclerc unloaded in the media after Ferrari’s Q2 tyre strategy conservatism backfired. In drying conditions the team asked him to set a ‘banker’ lap on inters before changing to slicks. It ultimately wasn’t fast enough and the rain’s return scuppered his efforts on slicks.

“I had a clear opinion and a clear intuition, and we went for something opposite,” he said. “We are just making our life way too difficult.”

Even more damningly, he also called the drama a “shitty situation”. But Vasseur would later insist that such comments were understandable in the adrenaline-charged post-session moments – and that Leclerc had later said, “OK, I was wrong.” Yet the damage-control steps were obvious.

Vasseur has had some firefighting to do with Leclerc's comments about Ferrari

Photo by: Alexander Trienitz / Motorsport Images

Leclerc lost the 2022 world title because Ferrari failed to keep pace with Red Bull’s development despite a car concept which seemed to have much promise. Although his two in-race crashes hurt his score, the team’s various dramas squandered six chances to add further success to the two victories Leclerc registered in that campaign’s first three events. Repeated strategy and car failings meant he ended up with just one further win – in Austria. 

This time around, Ferrari’s car is no closer over a race stint. And, whereas in 2022 the F1-75 led the way on one-lap pace, this year Red Bull’s RB19 is the clear class leader on all fronts. Aston Martin can now deprive Ferrari of points, as can the rebuilding Mercedes squad. Ferrari has tried to address its misfortunes by finally switching to a Red Bull-style sidepod concept, but too often Leclerc and Sainz are still frustrated by poor race pace, caused by excessive tyre degradation when they push on or engage in battle. And still the strategy frustrations rage.

Should Charles quit Ferrari?

Enter Villeneuve again. Not just in F1’s hive brain because of the bizarre saga which surrounded Leclerc running a tribute helmet to his illustrious predecessor during the Canada weekend (he’d failed to notify the family beforehand). But because Gilles actually attempted to escape his own Ferrari frustrations in 1981.

Having grown exasperated by poor reliability, and what he viewed as an inferior car he thought he’d been lucky to win twice in, Villeneuve considered exiting his Ferrari contract. He got as far as agreeing to join McLaren for 1982 via an intermediary – Gerald Donaldson’s biography of Villeneuve recounts him negotiating with Ron Dennis via numbers representing his desired salary being placed on a nearby pit board – before backing out. Fear of telling Enzo Ferrari was thought to be the clincher, as well as unease at the ethical dimensions of ending his contract early.

The question many F1 observers are wondering as 2023 progresses is thus: could Leclerc be contemplating a similar step outside his beloved red happy place? After all, given the sheer volume of frustrating moments over the past season and a half, it’s clearly not that happy.

Balanced against this is Leclerc’s understanding of how highly valued he is within Ferrari – his closeness with company chairman John Elkann is rumoured to have been a factor in the decision to replace Binotto. The Scuderia also made clear it considered Leclerc its leading star when it signed him to a five-year contract at the end of 2019. This was just after his bumpy first season as team-mate to Sebastian Vettel, who was shown the door just a few months later. And, despite his vociferous moments, Leclerc hasn’t come anywhere close to Villeneuve’s 1981 tirade on home soil (after qualifying nearly 2s off pole position), even though that included a similar line: “There’s no excuse”.

Leclerc finds himself in a similar situation as Villeneuve did at Ferrari in 1981

Photo by: Ercole Colombo

But now that contract’s end is looming. And until an announcement regarding Leclerc’s future is made, speculation will only build – made worse by the 2023 campaign crying out for additional narratives as Verstappen’s domination endures. In a business as ruthless as F1, it makes perfect sense for a driver to evaluate better options, as Villeneuve once did.

Since there’s still a year remaining on Leclerc’s current deal, both sides are tight-lipped on negotiation developments, bar Vasseur saying after Australia that “we’ll have time to discuss it” and “I’m not scared at all” – about the possibility of his driver jumping ship. Rumours flew at that stage of the season that Mercedes might be a possible Leclerc alternative, only for these to be scotched by Toto Wolff. But he nevertheless teased that Leclerc is “a super guy and, for the long-term future, someone you need to always have on your radar”. But Wolff added, “not for the short and the medium-term”. Leclerc then revealed in Austria that he and Ferrari are “slowly” starting “to speak about it [a new deal]”.

 “I don’t have any particular deadlines,” he added, with Sainz having stated pre-Austria that he wanted his own Ferrari future sorted this winter. “I still feel like a year-and-a-half is a long way to go. It’s not really on my mind yet. When I say we slowly started talking about it, it’s just here and there. But nothing special, nothing specific.”

The current positions of both Verstappen and Hamilton appear to leave Charles with no path to either Red Bull or to the Silver Arrows

And here is the wider predicament facing Leclerc, leaving both his and Ferrari’s failings to one side. Where Villeneuve was briefly considered among F1’s best – a perception boosted by his rise coming between the dominant eras of Niki Lauda and Alain Prost and Ayrton Senna, plus his story being tragically cut short – Leclerc is competing in the Verstappen age while Lewis Hamilton’s is still to fully conclude.

This, more than anything, caps the Villeneuve comparison – even if Leclerc’s dramatic driving can instil similar passion in Ferrari fans. The current positions of both Verstappen and Hamilton, who races alongside long-time Mercedes junior George Russell, appear to leave Charles with no path to either Red Bull, which is focused on Verstappen, or to the Silver Arrows. Aston is loving Alonso as much as he seemingly does back and there’s little chance Lawrence Stroll will eject his son from the second green seat, even if, as it has so far this campaign, this costs constructors’ championship points.

 The Hamilton question

Hamilton was the subject of rumours regarding a possible approach from Ferrari just before Monaco. That would be a box office move for F1 – at a time where Verstappen’s incredible run risks puncturing the boom incited by Drive to Survive. In another era, it wouldn’t be hard to imagine Bernie Ecclestone going to work to make such a move occur, and Hamilton has fuelled speculation by being openly complimentary about the Italian team and its illustrious history.

Hamilton's own F1 future could impact Leclerc's directly on whether he stays or goes

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

In reality, both sides of this tantalising possibility quickly moved to downplay that story. Vasseur quickly insisted Ferrari “didn’t have discussions” with Hamilton, who has since made such positive noises about his Mercedes contract negotiations it is believed, at the time of writing, that a new deal is all done bar the signing.

That still doesn’t remove the possibility of circumstances changing very fast. But the
current situation would appear to leave Leclerc with two options – the first much less likely than
the second. That is, switching to Mercedes to join his friend Russell, should Ferrari really move to sign Hamilton for 2024.

That scenario would require a lot of shifting from all parties but is not impossible. Hamilton is unlikely to make a Nico Rosberg-like retirement decision, given his burning desire to help Merc recover and then wrest the crown back from Verstappen. Add to this, one of Leclerc’s weaknesses appears to be acquiescing to Ferrari too readily during on-track strategy calls – it cost him at least a podium in the Monaco shambles last year and a Q3 berth back in Canada.

So, while Charles might have Elkann’s ear and is “not a spectator” in Ferrari’s rebuild, as Vasseur says, making such a potentially career-defining move would appear to go against his nature. That rebuild includes awaiting the arrival of several so-far-unnamed aerodynamicists from teams including Red Bull, while former head of vehicle concept David Sanchez and sporting director Laurent Mekies prepare for life at McLaren and AlphaTauri respectively.

Therefore, the second path for Leclerc is more obvious – especially if Hamilton is signed to a multi-year Mercedes deal that would put him towards the 2028 territory where Verstappen’s current Red Bull deal is set to end. This would entail sticking it out with Ferrari for the medium term. In doing so, Charles would further cement his status with the Tifosi – ideally living up to the “magnanimity and daring” in Villeneuve’s reputation that Enzo Ferrari highlighted at 1982’s sad conclusion. Plus, Leclerc would be able to watch contract developments play out elsewhere – including Audi building its new entry out of Sauber/Alfa Romeo.

Could Leclerc look elsewhere for his F1 future?

Photo by: Erik Junius

There is no Ferrari junior pushing for promotion, as Leclerc once was when Kimi Raikkonen’s days in red wound down in 2017 and 2018. Sainz has performed well at times this season, but again he’s lacked the true headline results his team-mate can usually conjure, as was the case during the 2021 season when Leclerc provided Ferrari’s clearest chances to snare an against-the-form victory.

If staying put at Ferrari is Leclerc’s most likely future, it will be important for him to reflect on how things have transpired so far in 2023. His early season errors evoked memories of his worst mistakes back in 2020, where the effects of Ferrari’s “confidential settlement” with the FIA over its engine technology led to Charles over-reaching for grid spots and race positions in a car which was lacking performance. This led to several bad crashes – including taking Vettel out in the second Austrian race and triggering a multi-car crash in the Sakhir GP.

It may involve another kind of pain, but making sure he is playing no part in Ferrari’s deficit to the front could end up being Leclerc’s primary focus as the final two-and-half years of F1’s current rules set play out. Even if that doesn’t bring the title glory he so obviously desires.

Vasseur is adamant that taking the “tough decision” to change the SF-23’s top surfaces will yield a higher development ceiling

Why Ferrari copied Red Bull

And, just like that, the wonderful variation in Formula 1 chassis design at the start of the new ground-effect era is over.

Aston Martin started it, going down the Red Bull downwash sidepod path just six races after introducing its initial 2022 design. As the months ticked by, the rest followed – to a greater and lesser extent. Mercedes, most notably, decided to ditch its distinctive ‘zeropod’ approach to upper aerodynamic surfaces once it was fully revealed that the W14 was no closer, really, to the front than its porpoising predecessor.

That just left Ferrari and Haas, which, at the time of writing, is now the only team not running a car with Red Bull-esque sidepods. In Spain, Ferrari surprised many by adding its own version of what is now a rather uniform style. Out were the deep, louvred inwash-inducing surfaces, and in were sidepods with a slightly stunted downwash ramp, along with tweaks to the floor, mirror mounting and engine cover.

Like the majority of the F1 grid, Ferrari's car concept has crept towards mirroring Red Bull

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

This was unexpected because in early April, when it was already clear the SF-23 trailed Red Bull’s class-leading RB19, team boss Fred Vasseur had plainly stated “we won’t come with something completely different” and that the plan for 2023 updates didn’t include what he defined as “a B-car”. Herein lies the gulf between how F1 engineers and the general public view cars. Sidepods aren’t the critical performance differentiator in a ground-effect formula. But getting them right can be a powerful tool in boosting the floor, which is – by directing more air towards the diffuser.

Those are important factors in assessing the current car generation. Vasseur is adamant that taking the “tough decision” to change the SF-23’s top surfaces will yield a higher development ceiling.

The initial results of this big change in terms of outright pace were hampered by unusual qualifying circumstances. Yet Sainz still qualified second in Spain, which helped Ferrari maintain its position as Red Bull’s closest challenger in terms of quickest laps logged over a weekend (which usually come in qualifying). But Sainz suffered badly with race tyre life and fell to fifth. Next time out in Canada, lower temperatures allowed the Ferrari drivers to “show a bit more our true pace”, as Sainz said, and climb the ranks from a disrupted qualifying to finish fourth and fifth.

This remains Ferrari’s central problem – it can’t yet totally replicate Red Bull’s stable platform. The additional sliding in corners, exacerbated by prioritising drag reduction, means it works its tyres very hard. This is a boost in terms of firing up rubber in qualifying, but in race stints, it is a handicap. And the car’s peaky aero also means its drivers are catching ever more slides and so straining their tyres further.

What next for Leclerc and Ferrari?

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images