Saturday Night Fever

Welcome to a new feature on Autosport.com! At coming races I plan to give you some kind of insight into what the gossip in the paddock is on Saturday night, and what might happen in the race. Of course at this stage it's all guesswork, and I could look pretty silly come Sunday afternoon. But it's worth having a go. Fortunately, we couldn't have chosen a more intriguing race to start with, and no doubt there will be weekends when the red cars are at the front and there's little to say...

The one thing we didn't need in Montreal was a grid sheet reading 1. M Schumacher, 2. R Barrichello, as that would hardly have the pulses of casual fans racing. Canada occupies a prime time early evening TV slot in Europe, and sandwiched between two Euro 2006 football matches, the need for an interesting grid was even greater.

And by jove, we've got it. Michael and Rubens are down in sixth and seventh places, and the five cars ahead of them are all guys quite capable of winning the race. It's going to be a fascinating Sunday afternoon.

It was a pretty interesting Saturday, for once. The Renaults and the BARs were to the fore in the morning, and that must have given Ferrari something to think about. Michael was first out of course, as he has been at most races this year. It's never very helpful, and some support event action - including a Ferrari Challenge crash fest - ensured that the track was difficult.

Even so, it was a surprise to see Michael's initial time tumble down the order to an eventual eighth, more than a second off the best set by none other than his brother. Against the run of form, Ralf (running near the end after his first corner crash in Germany) went quickest, dislodging his team-mate Juan Pablo Montoya.



The interesting thing was that after crossing the line he punched the air in delight. He was in such a good mood that between sessions he voluntarily stopped and joined Niki Lauda in an impromptu live TV discussion. The implication was that this was a representative lap time, one achieved with a sensible fuel load and which surprised even the driver.

Of course, we've witnessed some complex psychological games this year as teams have sloshed fuel in or pumped it out during the course of Saturday, trying to kid the opposition into reacting. So what were Ferrari to make of Michael lining up behind two Williams, two Renaults, two BARs and even David Coulthard's McLaren?

Recently we've seen the team respond by putting Michael on the minimum acceptable fuel load in order to help guarantee him top spot - at the 'Ring he stopped after just eight laps, which worked out just fine, as Kimi Raikkonen was doing his mobile chicane bit behind.

An extra concern for Ross Brawn was that the Bridgestone tyres' habit of taking a lap to come in was more apparent than usual in Montreal, making it even harder to beat the Michelin hordes.

Running eight cars from the end, Michael did indeed go top, but not by much. It was pretty clear that some of those to follow would eclipse him. Coulthard didn't, but Ralf, Button, Trulli, Montoya and Alonso all did. The only good news for Ferrari was that Takuma Sato self destructed and handed Michael back a spot.

If Ralf's celebrations after his first run were interesting, his reaction this time was positively ballistic, indicating yet again that he knew he had not just pole but a pretty good package for the race.



The session gave all the technical directors something to ponder. Williams, BAR and Renault all have a shot at winning this one, and all have to work out overnight exactly where they stand. And the technical directors of all three seemed pretty pleased, not least Sam Michael of Williams, who has been under a lot of pressure. He explained that the low downforce nature of the track suits Williams, which explains the sudden upturn in form (disguised on Friday when both cars had problems).

Sam Michael (Williams): "It's really good. It's obviously a long time since we've been on pole, and Ralf did a fantastic lap. We've shifted to a different drag level. That changes the ride heights you run, and the aerodynamic efficiency of the car, and the way the diffuser works. Hopefully it will work well here and Indy. I was pretty sure that Ralf or Juan Pablo could be on the front row. I didn't think he'd get pole, I thought he'd come out a couple of tenths behind Jenson, and obviously we were helped by the fact that Sato didn't get his lap in."

Geoff Willis (BAR): "Ralf did a good time to tip Jenson off pole. I'm slightly surprised that Montoya wasn't quicker. We'll have to see tomorrow who's doing what - maybe they're stopping a bit shorter than us. But generally the car has been good all weekend. We changed set-up overnight, and Jenson was happy with the car. He probably even dropped a tenth or a tenth and half even on that lap - it's very easy to make a little mistake. It's looking as though it could be very warm tomorrow, which could suit us quite well on the tyres. We're quite happy with out choice. The start is important here, and wed could have done with a few more people round the Renaults, but that's the way it goes."

Pat Symonds (Renault): "I think we've been looking pretty good this weekend. We've been quick petty well throughout. Some of those who've come up and challenged us were maybe not so quick early on. I don't know if it's a question of them having sorted out their problems, or whether they are just using a different strategy to us. I suspect it's the latter."



The consensus is that Ferrari has done the opposite of what they did at the 'Ring, and have gone to the other extreme of the fuel window. Of course, in the past the way to win Canada was to fill the car up and go as far as possible. He with the largest tank often won. So in theory a long first stint, even if it does compromise qualifying, is a perfectly legitimate choice.

Sam Michael: "I think Ferrari have probably looked at it and taken a very conservative approach. They've probably decided they couldn't get the lap time on he first lap out of that tyre, so they've got a good enough tyre to race well. To me it just looks like they've said right let's put a load of fuel in it, try to do the best we can, and try and pick up points in the race."

Geoff Willis: "It's interesting! I'm not sure. We need to spend some more time working out what they're doing to give us some guidance for what we need to do tomorrow."

Pat Symonds: "That's what I suspect. I would never underestimate what they do. I don't think they ever really compromise themselves, so I'm sure they'll be strong."

However, the drivers have made life difficult for themselves. Michael had a big slide under braking at the hairpin (did the heavy load catch him out?), and Rubens made a mistake in Turn 6. The World Champ lost 0.3s, which was enough to have put him third, ahead of Trulli. In other words the team is not where it should have been.

In theory Michael could sit in sixth place on the first lap and then - assuming others stop earlier - take advantage of a clear track and bang in some quick laps, perhaps assisted by the fact that his tyres will be in good shape. He did that to Jenson Button in Imola and Jarno Trulli in Spain. But with five cars ahead, he's got a tough job.

Of course, who knows when the others are stopping? One top rival estimates that Schumacher will stop on lap 22, but there's good reason to suggest that the Renaults will be going very long, perhaps long enough to completely stuff Ferrari's chances. Indeed, Jarno Trulli could well be the last stopper of the quick guys. All this is assuming that everyone's going for two stops, but some rivals think that BAR and possibly Williams could be going for three stops.



Schumacher he does have an ace up his sleeve. As everywhere else, passing is not easy at Montreal. However, if you have good straightline speed you can pass on the long run to he final chicane, and even into the first corner. Under parc ferme rules teams can't play with downforce levels for the race, so in theory qualifying is the perfect pointer to the race. As this table shows, the bloke in the red car might just have the last laugh:



Ralf Schumacher: 337.5kph
Jenson Button: 336.4kph
Jarno Trulli: 329.8kph
Juan Pablo Montoya: 336.9kph
Fernando Alonso: 333.8kph
Michael Schumacher: 340.9kph

The Renaults may look slow, but they are setting good sector times. That could mean that they are quick into and out of the hairpin, which may make it harder to be gobbled up on the run down the straight.



There is a downside to Michael's speed. The faster you are on the straights, and the lower the wing levels you run, the more stress you put on the brakes. If you are also running a heavy fuel load, as Michael clearly is, the equation becomes even more complex.

Of course everyone knows that, and comes as prepared as they can. Last week's Monza tests gave teams a chance to pound the brakes, and they've been checked for the past two days. A confident Ross Brawn says that Ferrari paid special attention to running heavy fuel loads on Friday. But nothing can prepare you for the heat of battle, and 70 laps on a hot day.

Symonds: "As always everyone has one eye on the brakes, if not three. Everyone looks like they have a pretty consistent tyre. I don't think the tyres will come into it, both the Bridgestone and Michelin runners have a tyre that will last very well here. So I think really brakes will be the main thing people will be concerned about. Williams said they had problems on Friday, but I'm sure they will have cured them. But here you never feel comfortable with the brakes, you're always a little bit on the edge Last year Michael won the race with dreadful brake problems. We looked really good at the race, because Fernando caught that train. But that train was travelling a helluva lot slower than it should have..."

Willis: "We're pretty happy with brakes. It's a very heavy braking circuit, and we'll certainly keep an eye on them. The drivers will know they have to look after them, but fundamentally, there's no problem."

Williams had a dire problem in Spain, but that was a one-off mistake, and after Ralf had problems the rears glazing on Friday in Canada the team spent a lot of time playing around with ducts and cooling (and remember, cooling means drag).

Interestingly, for this race Ferrari has switched from its usual Brembo discs to Carbon Industrie. The team sees this as a safe bet in terms of wear and consistency, but the downside is that the drivers are not familiar with them, and comfort and confidence is essential where brakes are concerned. Barrichello tried CI in Bahrain, and apparently didn't like them.

Another issue is that they don't warm up as quickly as the Brembos - the first lap is a problem, which is a handicap in qualifying. It's exactly the same as the tyre situation, in fact. Indeed the best thing Ralf can do to stuff his brother is to run a very slow formation lap, so that Michael can't warm up brakes or tyres...



As a final note, undoubtedly the most disappointed man in Montreal is Takuma Sato. He had a genuine shot at pole, but blew it with a mistake that led to another as he tried to catch up. It was quite impressive that despite a spectacular spin at the last turn he still went quicker than Zsolt Baumgartner! Usually so supportive, the team is more than a little frustrated with him...

He knackered the floor on the kerbs (indeed some of the debris he dropped was run over by Alonso, who will have to change some of his own aero parts overnight). Fortunately early fears about chassis damage proved to be unfounded.

However, the team is still looking at a pit lane start. The bonus is that he can have a new engine (a real plus for Sato!), new tyres, and whatever fuel load and set-up he wants. Montreal is one of the better places to be starting from the pits, thanks to the tight first corner, although he will have to wait for the last car to pass a white line on the track (usually it's the pit exit). Expect him to come charging through...

Let's see how it all unfolds. You never know, it even could be more exciting than England v France!