Red Bull edges closer to Mercedes as rain threat clouds order

Formula 1's first repeat grand prix provides the chance to directly compare the pecking order based on the practice times for the season-opening Austrian Grand Prix with this weekend's inaugural Styrian GP. But the weather gods have refused to be helpful.

Although there was no wet running in today's fourth and fifth F1 practice sessions of 2020, as there was briefly a week ago, the potential for rain to washout Saturday's activity had a knock-on effect on today's running.

Essentially, there is a chance the classification of FP2 could be used to set the grid - if no meaningful running can take place tomorrow, and no slot for qualifying can be found on Sunday morning. The latter scenario has taken place in the past, most recently at the 2019 Japanese GP.

As a result, on a day that featured a fair bit less running compared to last Friday, the need to set a rapid lap in FP2 somewhat spoiled the usual race-data-gathering fun in the afternoon session. Nevertheless, there are several conclusions we can draw from today's action with the usual caveats about fuel loads and engine modes applying, although Mercedes' running "a bit half pregnant" - as per Toto Wolff - in terms of power modes is a fairly unique approach.

Taking the headline times, Red Bull has closed the gap to Mercedes, with Max Verstappen's FP2-topping (and possibly pole-setting) 1m03.660s a massive 1.555 seconds quicker compared to his best from a week ago. That gain meant Red Bull leapt from sixth-overall quickest to the one-lap benchmark in the seven days between opening practice for the Austrian GP and the Styrian GP's equivalent running.

"We had much better feelings than last Friday," Verstappen explained. "We learned more about the car, we weren't so happy last week. That's why we tried to fix some things and so far it's much better - the direction we took seems to be the right one."

Given that F1 engineers never normally get a chance to put what they learn in one GP into action the following weekend, gains are to be expected - although, on Friday one-lap pace alone, Haas has slipped back by 0.112s. Mercedes has also gained, with Valtteri Bottas' second place time in FP2 0.601s faster than the time Lewis Hamilton used to top the same session last week.

"We are a bit in the dark, especially with Lewis' time. There's a problem with the car" Toto Wolff

Behind the top two come Racing Point - backing up its testing and Austrian GP practice potential (which its drivers seemed to let slip in last Sunday's race) - McLaren and Ferrari, which attracted significant attention today with its new front wing and floor.

Renault went quicker in the single-lap stakes today, but slipped back from fourth to sixth in the overall order week-to-week, while AlphaTauri and Alfa Romeo remained seventh and eighth. Williams improved to ninth, while Haas slipped back on overall lap time and in the headline classification.

Overall fastest laps

1 Red Bull Verstappen 1m03.660s
2 Mercedes Bottas 1m03.703s
3 Racing Point Perez 1m03.877s
4 McLaren Sainz 1m04.333s
5 Ferrari Leclerc 1m04.706s
6 Renault Ocon 1m04.746s
7 AlphaTauri Gasly 1m04.757s
8 Alfa Romeo Raikkonen 1m05.152s
9 Williams Russell 1m05.588s
10 Haas Magnussen 1m05.790s

If FP2 sets the grid, Mercedes may be on the front row with Bottas, but it has reason to be slightly miffed on two fronts. One, Wolff's "half-pregnant" line referred to the Mercedes cars running "not using the full power, but also not cruising very slowly", which means it apparently could have turned the wick up more in an effort to be sure of pole given the rain threat.

Then there was Hamilton finishing sixth in FP2 and stopping his running slightly early, as the team started work on discovering what was causing his car to be "all over the place in the slow and medium fast corners", per Wolff.

"We drove on a performance level that we normally don't drive on Friday," said the Mercedes team boss. "We are a bit in the dark, especially with Lewis' time. There's a problem with the car. At the moment we don't know [why]."

The differing approach to FP2 clouds the long-run numbers, again thanks to that rain threat. As many teams disrupted their usual long-run plans to get faster times in, Mercedes also avoided any long-running on the medium tyres (as did Renault and AlphaTauri) as it concentrated on the softer rubber in the second session. In doing so, it also saved a set of yellow-walled mediums potentially to try the Red Bull tactic of using that tyre to get through Q2, if it's dry in qualifying (whenever that will indeed be).

Using the medium long-running Mercedes and Renault did in FP1, we can see that Mercedes still leads the way on race pace. The picture behind is rather complex given the unusual nature of FP2 today, but a long run order of Mercedes, Red Bull, Racing Point, Ferrari, McLaren and Renault would make sense for the head of the pack/front of the midfield given the times below and an educated guess based on what took place over last weekend.

Red Bull is behind Racing Point in the medium table below, but can be expected to be ahead on pure pace and the team won't have shown all it has in practice today. Racing Point looks as if it's there or thereabouts again, but we must assume behind the top two based on the usual gains Mercedes and Red Bull make in qualifying and race trim.

The midfield is as crowded as it was last weekend. Renault is only above Ferrari and McLaren here because it did its long run on the mediums in FP1, which it is noted was when things were cooler.

Medium tyre comparison

1 Mercedes 1m08.981s*, 7 laps
2 Racing Point 1m09.475s, 16 laps
3 Red Bull 1m09.509s, 9 laps
4 Renault 1m09.513s*, 17 laps
5 Ferrari 1m09.546s, 9 laps
6 McLaren 1m09.872s, 23 laps
7 Haas 1m10.651s, 9 laps
8 Alfa Romeo 1m10.746s, 9 laps
9 Williams 1m10.890s, 14 laps
AlphaTauri N/A
*Set in FP1

At the back of the midfield, AlphaTauri opted not to conduct any medium tyre running, but was the seventh fastest car last weekend and retains that slot in the overall pace table. Haas compares favourably compared to Alfa Romeo and Williams on what medium long running did take place today, but its headline laptime slip will raise eyebrows.

Incidentally, the follow-on Red Bull Ring practice day had 236 fewer laps set (1232 today compared to 1468 last week). Haas lost ground to Kevin Magnussen's battery issue in FP1, and Williams missed much of the same session with Nicholas Latifi's car because of its gearbox problem. In FP2 today, Renault lost an entire session with Daniel Ricciardo after his early heavy crash.

Looking ahead to the rest of the Styrian event, if Red Bull starts on pole because FP2 sets the grid it will obviously have an early advantage - although its medium-tyre starting tactic will be washed out as Mercedes would be free to take that approach too. But such a scenario would leave Hamilton well down the order and again having to fight back.

The gearbox problems that plagued Mercedes last weekend remain a potential curveball for this weekend's race. But Andrew Shovlin, the team's trackside engineering director, said after FP2 that the new looms fitted to lessen the effect of electrical noise impacting the W11's transmission sensors thanks to the massive vibration from the track's kerbs "ran successfully today".

Ferrari's Sebastian Vettel said rain would "increase our chances", but his team has at least made some progress with its new developments despite still seemingly being firmly in the midfield based on today's showing

"We'd like a bit more running before we conclude that it's resolved, but it certainly seems to have improved our situation," he added.

If qualifying can take place in the dry on Sunday morning, Mercedes would be expected to hit back, but it has work to do on both cars as Bottas apparently felt his was "less easy to drive than last week but not by much", according to Shovlin.

If qualifying is wet, anything is possible, although of course this naturally favours the cars with more downforce. Ferrari's Sebastian Vettel said rain would "increase our chances", but his team has at least made some progress with its new developments despite still seemingly being firmly in the midfield based on today's showing.

Rain usually enlivens any motorsport event - assuming there's not so much it curtails running, as is possible for tomorrow - but even without a drop falling it has had an impact on the first ever Styrian GP.