Jon Noble: The one thing McLaren must leave behind for the title run-in

So this is it. Six races remaining for Lando Norris to cut down the 52 points deficit he has to Max Verstappen in the drivers’ championship.

Throw into the mix what is on offer for three sprint races, it leaves 180 points available – and means Norris must trim away at least nine points each race weekend if he is to end the year as champion.

F1 2024: When can Verstappen or Norris clinch the world title?

That is a tall order, and right now the mathematics still remain very much in Verstappen’s favour – as everything is still in his control. He just needs to follow Norris home in every race and the crown is his.

How it will turn out is anyone’s guess, but one thing that is certain is that - barring some unforeseen incident or DNF - it is going to be incredibly tight, and it could be that the title comes down to just a handful of points.

Based on McLaren having had the quickest car for the past few months, if Norris ends up losing the title to Verstappen by the narrowest of margins, then it will be all too easy for observers to pick out the moment that he and the squad let it slip through their fingers. There were the points that went begging at Monza, as Norris being overtaken by Oscar Piastri on the opening lap opened the door for Charles Leclerc’s victory. Or how many more could have been brought home at Baku if Q1 had been conducted differently? And what if McLaren had been more ruthless in throwing its full support behind Norris as early as the Hungarian GP?

But the problem with the ‘what ifs’ on the above is that hindsight always offers 20/20 vision, and you can go down a rabbit hole in only counting the moments when perhaps the points-scoring opportunities did not go the right way. It is very easy for hindsight bias to take over and analyse the past based purely on the knowledge that we have right now.

Norris finished fourth in Baku after an error in Q1 left him to start from 16th

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

Furthermore, it is human nature to give greater attention to events which had a negative impact on the final outcome, rather than a positive. Doing so does not take into account the fact that sport is endlessly complicated, and outcomes are decided by a multitude of factors - some within a competitor’s direct control, some totally outside it - all interacting with each other.

So just as people could pick Monza, Hungary and Baku as points lost, it would be wrong to not ignore the fact that having the gap between the McLaren and Red Bull drivers down to what it is at the moment has a flipside too – because Verstappen could equally be well gone.

Think of the points that went begging for the Dutchman in Australia because of finger trouble in assembling the brakes, or the Kevin Magnussen/Logan Sargeant safety car in Miami that played its part in Norris’ win there. Then there was the slow Red Bull pitstop in Austria that brought Norris back into play late on.

"We will not fall into this temptation of looking back at the points that we don't have" Andrea Stella

All three of these incidents were totally outside of McLaren and Norris’s control, but each played their part in delivering the gap between the two drivers that we have right now.

Picking and choosing only specific events of the past to provide a verdict on the current narrative is a big mistake. That is why McLaren team boss Andrea Stella has been drilling it hard into his team that it cannot let the emotions of ‘how different things could have been’ influence it.

When this writer asked him after the Singapore Grand Prix if he was worried that time was running out for Norris to slash that gap to Verstappen, Stella offered an interesting reply: “Numerically, your observation is correct. But in terms of controlling the emotional flow, there's not much you can do. You just have to go to the next race and maximise the sprint and maximise the main race and make sure that both drivers finish ahead of Max. Then if we are in condition to bring some upgrades, then this mission will become even easier.”

McLaren is working to learn from the results that have got away this season

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

Stella is adamant McLaren must shut away any thoughts about what might have been. The past cannot be ignored for offering up lessons that can help make you better in the future, but it cannot be changed to put you in a better place right now.

He says that much has been done to embrace a mentality at McLaren where it is not going to let itself be crushed by the ones that got away, so if there is one thing that it must leave at home for these final races, it is regret.

“We have reflected so much as a team around our mindset,” Stella adds. “We talk about mindset, we talk about culture, and I think this has penetrated in the team very deeply. This means that the mindset is genuinely on the future. The past is relevant, as long as you can learn from it.

“That is not the winner's mindset. They don't think [about] the missed opportunity. They just think, 'That's a missed opportunity', 'This is what I learned', 'It's making me stronger', 'I look at the future'. That's what I see and what I hear in the team. I'm pretty sure that we will not fall into this temptation of looking back at the points that we don't have, but we will focus on the points that are available in the future.”

Will Norris end the year with that winning feeling that is beginning to become familiar?

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images